Networked tribes, systems disruption, and the emerging bazaar of violence. Resilient Communities, decentralized platforms, and self-organizing futures.
By John Robb
Posted: 20 May 2011 11:30 AM PDT
The most likely scenario for the next decade starts with the resumption of global economic depression (D2). Economies shrink. Wealth evaporates as former “assets” become worthless. Commodities fall (even energy) due to declines in economic activity. Currencies gyrate, explode, and/or evaporate.
In this environment, sovereigns will begin to default as the industrial nation-state model runs out of gas. Developed nation-states will find themselves crushed between bailouts of their cronies and excess spending (i.e. social spending (EU), national security spending (US), or mercantilist over-investment (China). Developing nations will just implode.
Things will continue on this track until one of two things happen:
- things really begin to fail (complete system breakdown) or
- new, better economic and social systems become viable as replacements to our broken one.
I’m betting on new economic and social systems. Part of that bet, and something many people now get, is accomplished through the establishment of self-reliant resilient communities. However, resilient communities aren’t a sufficient replacement, in and of themselves (unless you want to turn back the clock to the 1800s). By themselves, they don’t represent a superior alternative to a failing and flailing global system. Something else is needed, but what?
It’s simple. What’s needed are (note the plural here), virtual global economic systems built on a sound footing (i.e. better and more sensible rules than we currently have), prosperous participants, and a hard currency. Systems that people can flee to when currencies become scarce (deflation) or worthless (inflation) or nation-state political systems fail (corruption/crime) or flail (repression).
My advice to you: when you see a system that looks like the one outlined above, start to diversify your economic activity into it as soon as is practicable.