DefDog: The Importance of Selection Bias in Statistics

Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Communities of Practice, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), DoD, Officers Call, Policies, Threats

This would be a great tool to determine the analytical capabilities of the IC….bet they would miss it….

The importance of “selection bias” in statistics

During WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to their bombers. After analyzing the records, he recommended adding more armor to the places where there was no damage!

This seems backward at first, but Wald realized his data came from bombers that survived. That is, the British were only able to analyze the bombers that returned to England; those that were shot down over enemy territory were not part of their sample. These bombers’ wounds showed where they could afford to be hit.

Said another way, the undamaged areas on the survivors showed where the lost planes must have been hit because the planes hit in those areas did not return from their missions.

Click on Image to Enlarge

Phi Beta Iota:  The US secret intelligence community is largely worthless, providing “at best” 4% of what the President or a major commander needs, and virtually nothing for everyone else.  They keep doing the wrong thing righter, instead of the right thing.  To do the right thing requires integrity.  Go figure.

See Also:

Dr. Russell Ackoff on IC and DoD + Design RECAP

2010: Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Trilogy Updated