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This is the graphic.

Graphic: Tony Zinni on 4% “At Best”

This is the only place in literature where we know the story has been told in writing.

2008 Open Source Intelligence (Strategic)

The source was Col GI Wilson, USMC (Ret), who heard it from Gen Zinni directly.  We consider General Zinni, along with Generals Gray and Stackpole, one of the three brightest and most holistic naval flag officers in modern history.