Reference: 1986 CIA Artificial Intelligence Bibliography

Monographs
CIA AI Bibliography (1986)
CIA AI Bibliography (1986)

It cost CIA $3000 to teach us the word “heuristics” also known as “rules of thumb.  Attempts to leverage expert & decision support systems heuristics, encoding specificity, and cognitive mapping decision making in foreign policy ultimately failed for two reasons:

1.  No over-arching authority able to force the Directorate of Operations (DO) to enter the 21st Century; and

2.  Bureaucratic mind-sets all too comfortable with cut and paste slave labor instead of gold collar workers.

As best we can tell, national security productivity is no better today than it was in the 1988-1992 timeframe.

1976 Thesis: Theory, Risk Assessment, and Internal War: A Framework for the Observation of Revolutionary Potential

Articles & Chapters
Thesis #1
Thesis #1

The best parts of this are the core graphic, and at the end, the operationalization (specification of data elements to be collected and analyzed) of each precondition of revolutionion.

See Also:

1976 graphic on the preconditions of revolution

1992 paper on revolution (Marine Corps University)

2008 Legitimate Grievances (US Internal)
2008 Legitimate Grievances (Anti-US Global)

2010  Graphic: Preconditions of Revolution in the USA TodayParadigms of Failure

Graphic: Pre-Conditions of Revolution

Advanced Cyber/IO, Analysis, Balance, Leadership-Integrity, Reform, Strategy-Holistic Coherence
Click to Enlarge

The 1976 graduate thesis has not, to the  best of our knowledge, been superceeded.  It could certainly be improved and updated.  At the end it provides an operationalization (specification of data elements to be collected and analyzed) for each of the pre-conditions of revolution.

See Also:

1992 MCU Thinking About Revolution

1976 Thesis: Theory, Risk Assessment, and Internal War: A Framework for the Observation of Revolutionary Potential

Review: Theory, risk assessment, and internal war–A framework for the observation of revolutionary potential