40 warning signals of the collapse and decay of the Russian Federation (Putinism)
Publication time: 4 February 2011, 13:35
1) Institutionalized corruption and widespread bribe taking, covered up by double entry book keeping systems….I never understood why even every street kiosk had to have an accountant.
2) Theft of state property and funds via crony capitalism.
3) Unrestrained money laundering.
Below the Line: 37 more, and comparison to USA.
4) Off shoring of assets and oligarch profits; Cyprus, Switzerland, Belize and UK.
5) Capital flight; $ 25B from Russia
6) Growing nepotism. (Russia)
7) Exported corruption to EU, Canada and the USA (Russian mafia)
8) Condoned / Endorsed mafia activity and banditism at home.
9) Tacit government support of contraband, narcotics and human ?trafficking
10) Demographic collapse.
11) Weakened military control at the periphery of the empire.
12) Conflicts on the periphery.
13) Army can't afford to pay utilities or conscript salaries, hunger strikes over wages
14) Government worker salaries withheld.
15) Lack of independent police and widespread corruption.
16) Lawlessness, police focus on extremists and political opposition instead of bandits who run free.
17) Lack of independent judiciary and corruption.
18) Dictates from above to; pressure on police, tax enforcers, the judiciary and the interior ministry staff.
19) Illegal Use of Administrative resources.
20) Cyber attack, info wars, online provocateurs to protect the status quo, false flag terrorist operations for excuse to declare marshal law.
21) Political opposition and critics branded as extremists and terrorists. Journalist critics murdered
22) Intelligence arms of government -FSB (formerly KGB)
23) Growth of religion as a political weapon ie Kirill or Russki Mir etc.
24) Politics of denial game.
25) Food price fixing.
26) Commodity price fixing.
27) Low (below $ 100 per barrel) or reversal of oil / gas and commodity prices that are /will bankrupt the government again (the straw that broke the camel's back in 1989 and 1991)
28) Behind the scenes support to oligarchs and big business, ignoring general public and small and medium business (ie [..] “small business, squeezed between the public-hygiene inspectorate demanding bribes and rattled banks, where money is left hanging, can only smile at this.” […] )
29) Uncontrolled Sovereign wealth fund spending, government going broke, no reserves.
30) Rising Russian nationalism and provoked ethnic tensions.
31) Potential Tax revolt 2011.
32) Protests demos and possibly a national strike 2011.
33) Deceptions and provocations.
34) Endless empty promises and no action, or reforms or new governance business models.
35) Imbalances, paradoxes and contractions (ie Putin's $ B palace vs. poverty rates; oligarchs avoid taxes by off shoring profits vs. tax squeeze on SMB, Russia plans to upgrade its Navy/Black Sea fleet but it can't afford the basics- hoses, fire trucks and pumps to fight forest fires in the summer of 2010; Police and Interior Ministry told to concentrate on dissenters, not bandits, rapists, thieves, and corruption etc
36) intelligence service failures
37) Loss of FDI confidence (UPDATE: Investors pulled a net $ 38.3 billion out of Russia last year, according to central bank data <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-23/bond-buyers-oppose-fitch-rating-as-spreads-widen-russia-credit.html>).
38) Wild unrealistic growth expectations (Russia) (ie Russia's economy may grow 5 percent this year, fueled by domestic consumption, construction and capital inflows, Yaroslav Lissovolik, Deutsche Bank chief Moscow economist, told a conference in London
What capital inflows? (see 37 above) Investors pulled a net $ 38.3 billion out of Russia last year, according to central bank data.
39) Disenfranchised unemployed youth grows more militant leading to demonstrations, clashes and riots. Nashi out of control in Russia
40) Wild Card-flu outbreak in Russian military (Russia) also see Ten Years of Putinism (Russia)
By Walter Derzko
Walter Derzko is a consultant, lecturer, business owner, a popular blogger, key note speaker and former Director of the Idea Lab at the Design Exchange in Toronto, Canada. He also teaches a popular Certificate program on Innovation and Entrepreneurship at the University of Toronto, School of Continuing Studies.
Walter specializes in strategic thinking, business development, emerging technologies, lateral creative thinking, innovation and foresight, Walter works in partnership with inventors, first time entrepreneurs, serial entrepreneurs, engineers, designers, scientists and researchers turned entrepreneur, emerging fast-growth companies, large corporations, Not-for-profits (NFP's) and government to develop their innovation capabilities, foresight, and anticipatory management skills, He also is an expert and specializes in environmental scanning for business and government, developing novel business models, new products and services and in spotting & “designing” business opportunities with his unique Idea Lab and Opportunity Clinic process.
Recent clients include startups in mobile software, nanotechnology, biotechnology, the Ontario Center of Excellence (OCE), VTT in Finland, the Office of the National Science Advisor (ONSA) and Agriculture and Agrifood Canada.(AAFC) in Ottawa, Forrester Research and the Design Exchange in Toronto. Walter's blogs on Entrepreneurship & Innovation and on emerging “smart” technologies are popular daily destinations for entrepreneurs and managers who need to stay on the edge of innovation.
Source: Kavkaz Center
Phi Beta Iota: While unstructured, this is a remarkably good list–and frighteningly suggestive of the USA. Governments are NOT “too big to fail.” The irresponsibility of the two parties and their financial masters has brought the USA not only bankruptcy (2006), but as close to devolutioin we can get without fragmentation and violence. We continue to believe–perhaps too idealistically–that 2012 will be a year of Awakening rather than Apocalypse.
Reference: Citizens Fiddle, Obama Dances
Preconditions of Revolution in the USA Today
Strong Signals: Truth or Tyrannicide + RECAP
Poor in the USA: 50 Million & Rising + RECAP
REVOLUTION 21: New Dots & Old Basics
