Berto Jongman: Global Factors that Influence Conflict and Fragility

Knowledge, Policies, Threats
Berto Jongman

Global Factors that influence Conflict and Fragility (OECD, Sep 2012)

The risk of conflict and fragility is influenced by both domestic factors (such as political marginalization and the unequal distribution of wealth) and global factors (such as the transnational organized crime and foreign direct investment). Much analysis to date has analyzed the political economy of fragile and conflict affected countries and neglected this global dimension of fragility.

Yet, powerful global influences are at play that, enhanced by the process of globalization, generate strong international constraints and opportunities for national development and the incentives of domestic stakeholders. Fragile states feature a heightened sensitivity and lower resilience to such influences because of their generally weak levels of institutional capacity, the often contested legitimacy of their political settlement, their high levels of inequality and the legacy or threat of violence they face. For the same reasons, they also easily mutate, multiply or transmit such influences, often in unexpected or negative ways. In short, such global factors have a critical influence on conflict and fragility but are underestimated in both the analysis and action.

INCAF’s work on this topic focuses on eight global factors that influence conflict and fragility, and in particular on interconnections between these factors. The aim of this work is to identify concrete entry points for international action that can reduce or mitigate the harmful effects of such global factors.

A Cross-Impact Matrix of Global Factors Influencing Conflict and Fragility, 2012 (pdf)