Phi Beta Iota: Our preliminary view, pending some additional inquiries, is that Ghani will win the run-off quite easily (60-40 or better), and that he will NOT sign the Bi-Lateral Security Agreement (BSA). The roles of Abdullah and Barshadost remain to be defined. We have no doubt that everyone EXCEPT the Americans is deep into planning for a non-BSA post-2014. The way forward is positive — if you have intelligence with integrity.
See Also:
BOOK: Ashraf Ghani and Clare Lockhart, Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World (Oxford, 2009)
BOOK: Carlotta Gall, The Wrong Enemy: America in Afghanistan, 2001-2014 (Houghton Mifflin, 2014)
BOOK: Mike Martin, An Intimate War: An Oral History of the Helmand Conflict, 1978-2012 (Oxford, 2014)
BOOK: Philip Allott,The Health of Nations: Society and Law beyond the State (Cambridge, 2002)
NEWS: Afghan election: Why the Taliban will win
NEWS: Ashraf Ghani vows comeback to win Afghan election run-off
NEWS: Next Afghan president will face a battle for control of nation’s mineral wealth
ORGANIZATION: Institute for State Effectiveness (Citizen-Centered Approaches to State and Market)
REFERENCE: Wikipedia / Treaty of Gandamak
VIDEO: Ashraf Ghani on The Path to Modern Sovereignty (2011)
VIDEO: Clare Lockhart at Aspen Ideas Festival on Fixing Failed States
See Also:
Chuck Spinney: Should US Leave Afghanistan? Is BBC Out of Its Mind? Robert Steele Comments
NIGHTWATCH: India Begins Military Support for Afghanistan — Robert Steele Comments
