New mathematical logic to help intelligence services cope with uncertainty
Phi Beta Iota: Delusional at best, insane at worst. We collect a fraction of the relevant information and process less than 1% of what we collect. Adding mathematics to that tiny sub-set, while continuing to refuse to be serious about Human Intelligence (HUMINT) in all languages at all levels of society, is a pathologicial mis-direction of intelligence. Holistic analytics, true cost economics, and open source everything engineering that enables free real-time multinational information sharing and sense-making by humans is the Holy Grail. This well-intentioned idea joins the “singularity” and “government by algorithm” ideas in the corner where we put expensive largely unhelpful endeavors. To claim that math would have prevented George Tenet and Colin Powell from betraying the public trust and enabling Dick Cheney to ignore all valid intelligence and instead go to war on the basis of 935 lies is to demonstrate ignorance of how policy and politics work at a most profound level. We did not need math to devine the truth — we needed integrity to have the truth heard. Math is not a substitute for integrity.
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