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Search: planning for the unthinkable: countering a north korean nuclear attack and management of post-attack scenarios

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Planning for the Unthinkable: Countering a North Korean Nuclear Attack and Management of Post-Attack Scenarios

By Bruce E. Bechtol Jr.

October 6, 2011

This report was originally published in the March 2011 Issue of the Korean Journal of Defense Analysis (Vol 23 No 1) .

ABSTRACT

North Korea has shown no willingness to give up its nuclear weaponization programs. In fact, Pyongyang has gone out of its way to keep essential elements of its
nuclear programs hidden unless it was in the DPRK's interest to publicly display them. With the increase in tensions initiated by North Korea in recent years this is particularly disturbing. A review of North Korea’s nuclear weapons capabilities reveals a two-track agenda consisting of both a plutonium (proven) and a highly
enriched uranium (likely) program. Scenarios involving both of these programs show that North Korea — despite rather primitive capabilities —can deliver a nuclear weapon that would cause casualties in the tens of thousands. While a preemptive strike may seem like the obvious answer to a nuclear attack, North Korea's ability to strike back with non-nuclear forces would likely mean a full-scale conflict possibly involving hundreds of thousands of casualties. Consequence management for a nuclear attack would be unable to prevent second- and third-order effects that could last as long as a generation. High-level officials in Washington and Seoul have placed renewed focus on planning for nuclear scenarios on the Korean peninsula — but the bottom line is that preventing and deterring a North Korean nuclear attack must be a high priority.
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Search: public intelligence book

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Books on Intelligence & Information Operations by Robert David STEELE Vivas et al

Still relevant:

Steele, Robert David (2002).  THE NEW CRAFT OF INTELLIGENCE: Personal, Public, & Political.  Oakton, VA: OSS International Press.

Most recent:

Steele, Robert David (2010).  INTELLIGENCE FOR EARTH: Clarity, Diversity, Integrity & Sustainability.  Oakton, VA: Earth Intelligence Network.

New effort to create a public governance and public intelligence text-book:

2013 New Book – 5.1 Up — Chapters 7-20 Seeking Sponsors — Crowd-Sourcing Content, You Are Invited to Contribute to the First Book on Public Intelligence for Public Governance

Snapshots:

2013 Public Governance in the 21st Century: New Rules, Hybrid Forms, One Constant – The Public [Work in Progress]

2012 PREPRINT: The Craft of Intelligence [Full Text Online]

2010 The Ultimate Hack Re-Inventing Intelligence to Re-Engineer Earth (Chapter for Counter-Terrorism Book Out of Denmark)

2013 Healing the Americas with an Open Source Agency

See Also:

About Phi Beta Iota

21st Century Public Intelligence 3.2

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Search (3): Analytic Models, 10 Threats, Threat Support to Acquisition

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Ada Bozeman
Ada Bozeman

Ada Bozeman, in Strategic Intelligence and Statecraft: Selected Essays, has written:

(There is a need) to recognize that just as the essence of knowledge is not as split up into academic disciplines as it is in our academic universe, so can intelligence not be set apart from statecraft and society, or subdivided into elements…such as analysis and estimates, counterintelligence, clandestine collection, covert action, and so forth. Rather … intelligence is a scheme of things entire. (Bozeman 1998: 177).

The principal failing of all intelligence endeavors to date, both in government (including law enforcement and the military), and in the private sector (across academia, civil society, commerce, the media, and non-government/non-profit), has been the lack of coherent comprehensive analytic models that by their very nature, foster an appreciation for the whole.  In one word, they lack integrity — they lack the integrity of being whole; they lack the integrity of providing for relationships among all factors; and they lack the integrity of providing for true cost cradle to grave economic cost-benefit analytics.

The analytic model is what determines the maturity of the intelligence process, but it is irrelevant if the rest of “the thing entire” is a mess.  If counterintelligence is not sufficient to eradicate traitors and special interests corrupting the decision-cycle entire; if collection is not coherent and responsive; if processing is marginal at best; and if constituencies are either ignored or ignorant — one cannot have intelligence.  Intelligence without integrity is not intelligence.  Integrity in this context is not about individual honor, rather it is about the coherence — the state of being whole and unfragmented — the integral consciousness of  the whole, with intelligence and its constituencies being “one mind, one soul.”

There are four Whole of Government constituencies for decision-support that are not being addressed coherently because the Office of Management and Budget does not appear to “do” Whole of Government” management: strategy, policy, acquisition, operations.  The individual Departments cannot be expected to make up for this deficiency at the presidential level–but they should be held accountable for coherent threat support to acquisition in the context of respect those of the ten threats to humanity that are within their mandate.  Our current practice of doing intelligence support to each stovepipe in isolation from the whole is counter-productive, and we generally only do the “threat” in generic terms and do not tailored analytic support to strategy development and testing; to 360 degree policy both current and future; or to acquisitions beyond token support to individual weapons systems that are never themselves called into question for being unnecessary, unaffordable, and often untransportable..

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Search: develop intelligence through civil affairs

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Robert David STEELE Vivas
Robert David STEELE Vivas

This search by a number of you, using the same words, is one that I feel compelled to respond to personally.  When I was putting together the Smart Nation Act, with Congressman Rob Simmons (R-CT-02) positioned to introduce it in his next term, we specifically addressed an absolute prohibition against any use by any covert or clandestine or even overt intelligence organization, of civil affairs as a cover.  That provision fell out in the simplified version of the Act.  If I were God, anyone caught using civil affairs as a cover would be reduced one grade in rank and expeditiously dischanged from government service–this would apply to both SOF and all elements of the IC.

Civil Affairs today has three strikes against it:

Continue reading “Search: develop intelligence through civil affairs”