Continue reading “Graphic: 1991 Family of Defense Intelligence Products”

The Washington Post (headline and link below)  purports to explain how the CIA fell victim to a series of miscalculations that make it vulnerable to the devastating attack on Forward Operating Base (FOB) Chapman, a CIA base in Khost Province, Afghanistan, but it does not pass the smell test.  Of course, coming from the Washington Post, we should not be surprised if it emits the oder of a CYA leaking operation by an agency or agencies of the US government.  The report is nevertheless revealing, because it goes to the heart of the strategic confusion that originates in the US Government's simplistic  conflation of the goals of the Pashtun tribal chieftains and warlords (e.g. Mehsud/Haqqani clans), nationalist insurgents (e.g., Afghan Taliban), and those of the Paki military's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI, including those  related to the Kashmir Question) with those of an amorphous al Qaeda in a strategy now known as the AFPAK strategy.

It appears that most of the information in the Post's report comes from Jordanian intelligence (GID) and CIA sources who are anxious to preserve a special relationship between GID and the CIA.  Note particularly how a tone of threat inflation permeates its discussion al Qaeda's intelligence abilities, especially how difficult is to penetrate the inner circles of al Qaeda.  This sounds a little like the hoary portrayals of the omniscient, centrally-directed, all-powerful Soviet KGB that we were subjected to during the Cold War.  After over eight years of a so-called long war on terror and the expenditure of more than one trillion dollars in the targeting of al Qaeda (which is alleged to be the central objective of the war, be it in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, or Somalia), the continued existence of al Qaeda is embarrassing, and perhaps can only be explained to a fear-numbed, tired public by assigning al Qaeda solomon-like intelligence and attack capabilities.

According to the Post report, the GID sent Dr. Balawi, the Jordian suicide bomber, to Pakistan to get inside al Qaeda's inner circles.  Note, however, the relative absence of any discussion of Pashtun networks or the Pakistan Army's notorious ISI organization.  Citing CIA/GID sources, the Post intimates the CIA was subjected to a sophisticated bait and switch operation by al Qaeda, wherein Balawi provided high quality “actionable” intelligence to convince the CIA that Balawi as reliable double agent who has inserted himself into al Qaeda.  Yet according to a large number of news reports over the last two years, almost all of the targeting has been against Pashtun targets in border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly in North and South Waziristan.  Moreover, the overwhelming majority of these so-called decapitation attacks on Pashtun leadership targets over the last two years failed to hit their designated targets, but have killed hundreds of innocent men, women, and children, thus enraging an ever growing number of Pashtuns.

This line of thinking begs some questions:  What kind of actionable intelligence was Balwai providing?  Was it directed at al Qaeda or a variety of Pashtun clan chieftains or warlords? And who was feeding Balawi the targeting intelligence?  Or more precisely, given the internecine character of the Pashtun culture, its vendetta code of honor, and the conflicting goals of the various insurgent/criminal groups, what group or alliance of convenience was providing the targeting info that the CIA/GID believed to be confirmation of Balawi's bona fides?

The intrigues implicit in these questions are the same as those that bedeviled Alexander the Great (330-327 BC), the British in the 19th Century, and the Soviets in the 20th Century; and they suggest an alternative hypothesis to the FOB Chapman capejob: Namely that wily Pashtuns may have viewed a self-starting Arab Salafi Jihadi, like Balawi, as manna from heaven that would enable them to infiltrate FOB Chapman, the source of so many drone attacks on Pashtun targets.  The CIA went for a red cape constructed by one or more groups of Pashtuns (possibly with help from the Paki Army's ISI), who knowingly exploited US (and Jordanian?) obsessions with al Qaeda as a weakness to be used in getting revenge for the killings of a few Pashtun chieftains (like the elder Baitullah Mehsud), not to mention the hundreds of innocent Pashtun civilians who are deemed to be acceptable collateral damage by the “strategists” designing the drone war on Pakistani extremists.

The bottom line is that we still don't know what happened at Forward Operating Base Chapman beyond the first order effects of the killings, and the Post report does little to clear the cobwebs.  Yet understanding motives that led the disaster at FOB Chapman is inextricably tied up with understanding the strategic and grand strategic ramifications of President Obama's increasing reliance on a decapitation strategy in AFPAK  To date, this strategy has yielded few dividends at an increasing cost: A bankrupting war with no end in sight, because the few leaders we have killed have been easily replaced, and their martyrdom, coupled with a culture that makes it a matter of personal honor to seek revenge for the killing of hundreds of innocents, is generating an increasing flood of recruits.  On the other hand, blaming the attack on al Qaeda, and by extension, evoked the fears generated by 911, has the effect of directing attention away from an intractable strategic and grand strategic debacle of our own making.

Chuck

In Afghanistan attack, CIA fell victim to series of miscalculations about informant
By Peter Finn and Joby Warrick   Saturday, January 16, 2010; A01

See Also:

Journal: CIA’s Poor Tradecraft AND Poor Management

Journal: Director of National Intelligence Alleges….

Search: The Future of OSINT [is M4IS2-Multinational]

Commandant: Marine Corps Seeks Solutions to Naval Surface Fires ‘Void’

In a recent article from “Inside the Navy.com”, the Marine Corps expressed continued concern for the lack of naval surface fires support that only the DDG-1000 offers.  According to this published report, Marine Corps Commandant, Gen. James Conway, referred to the truncation of the DDG-1000 destroyer program to only three hulls as leaving “a serious void” in the Navy's ability to provide surface fires support.  The Advanced Gun System (AGS) on the DDG-1000 would provide the protection needed for his Marines to safely and successfully maneuver.

NSFS analysis remains ongoing
Commandant: Marine Corps Seeks Solutions to Naval Surface Fires ‘Void’

The Marine Corps remains concerned about how it will mitigate the lack of a naval surface fires capability in light of the truncation of the DDG-1000 destroyer program to three hulls, which carry the Advanced Gun System designed to provide Marines fires to allow for maneuver ashore.

Below the Fold: Rest of Summary and Links to USMC  1989-1990 Study, Current Facts on Navy's Non-Responsive Showboat, and GAO Study.  Known gap since 1989–and no one with the integrity to challenge Navy's decisions–decisions based on ideology, not solid decision-support.  This is the primary reason we folded both the Inspector General (IG) and Operational Test & Evaluation (OT&E) into our 21st Century Full Spectrum Human Intelligence (HUMINT) –the Undersecetary of Defense for Intelligence and Warfighting Support needs to “get a grip” on all information across the spectrum (green, red, yellow, white) and on all of the tools and technologies that carry information–the systems is the message, and right now the message is not getting there.

Continue reading “Journal: USN Refuses NGF for USMC–Gap Clearly Identified by Expeditionary Factors Study in 1989”

NOTE:  This offering ends 9 Feb 10 unless we can find a volunteer to do once a week.

Hot Topics

AA: Cuba, China, Venezuela send immediate assistance 01/20/10

AA: Oscar Heck: The Colombian government is NOT avoiding an armed conflict… 01/17/10

AA: UN report paints grim picture of conditions of world's indigenous peoples 01/21/10

AA: US waves white flag in disastrous ‘war on drugs' 01/16/10

AA: Venezuela donates 1 million gallons of fuel to Haiti via Dominican route 01/19/10

BR: Brazil promises to find killers of journalist and compensates family 01/19/10

BR: Why Can't Brazilian Generals Admit Their Guilt in Human Rights Violations? 01/16/10

CL: Chileans Seek Change: Interview with the Pres. of the Communist Party of Chile … 01/16/10

CL: What Happened in Chile? 01/21/10

CO: Venezuelans Expelled from Colombia for Intelligence Gathering 01/19/10

PE: Transport Strikes Continue To Affect Parts Of Peru 01/19/10

SV: El Salvador issues official apology for civil war abuses 01/16/10

VE: Chavez escalates claims that US using relief effort to invade Haiti 01/20/10

VE: Thinking: If it weren't for Cuban intelligence, Chavez would not be in office … 01/17/10

VE: Venezuela: Go Hugo, Go! 01/19/10

Below the Fold: Instability, Special Operations, Security Forces, Foreign Affairs, Crime

Continue reading “SOUTHCOM Week in Review Ending 20 January 2010”

This op-ed by my friend Marshall Auerback is REALLY GOOD!!!!! I follow it with another good op-ed to bookend Auerback's.

Chuck

Phi Beta Iota: In meetings with various non-profit and non-partisan advocacy groups over the past year we have been quite stunned to observe that they are all vested in the two-party system and are afraid of electoral reform.  The other bad news is that most partisans have no idea that both parties have been bought and paid for by Wall Street, they really think the trillion dollar bail-out was bad judgement rather than corruption compounded by conflicts of interest.  This is very much like intelligence or acquisition reform–people are in pain and want to change, but not in enough pain to demand wholesale change.

It's About the Economy: Obama Still Doesn't Get It

By Michael Auerback

A majority of Obama voters who switched to Brown said that “Democratic policies were doing more to help Wall Street than Main Street.” A full 95 percent said the economy was important or very important when it came to deciding their vote.  Surprise, surprise, policies do matter.

But what was the President’s reaction?  ABC News reported, “President Obama said today that he feels he lost a direct connection to the American people in his first year in office because he focused too heavily on policy-making.”

“If there's one thing that I regret this year is that we were so busy just getting stuff done and dealing with the immediate crises that were in front of us that I think we lost some of that sense of speaking directly to the American people about what their core values are and why we have to make sure those institutions are matching up with those values,” Obama told ABC News' George Stephanopoulos in an exclusive interview at the White House.

The arrogance and presumption of the statement is remarkable.  Mr. President, the American people have core values, and they don’t encompass political cronyism and tolerance of fraud and corruption. And they go beyond mere reminders that “change takes time”.

Don't Waste Your Vote!
Why I Voted for the Republican in Massachusetts

By JOHN V. WALSH

Of course the Democratic operatives are now blaming the disconsolate and bewildered loser, Democrat Attorney General Martha Coakley, for running a “poor campaign.”  But in what did the poverty of her effort consist?  She merely assumed that the Democratic voters and the independents here in Mass who are by and large a pretty progressive lot had nowhere else to go.  They had to vote for her, and so she did not need to campaign very hard after the primary.  The Democrats were mightily surprised on this score.  She is not to blame, but the Democrat Party assumption that they can take progressives for granted is very much to blame for this humiliating defeat.

So Massachusetts has delivered a warning to the Democrat Party.  Do not take the peace vote or the jobless vote for granted.  We want peace and we want jobs and we want decent affordable health care.  If you do not deliver, we will go elsewhere.  We will not vote for you.  We will vote the other Party in protest.  Or we will stay home and vote with our butts.

A brave lieutenant colonel speaks out: why most of our generals are dinosaurs

Posted By Thomas E. Ricks Thursday, January 22, 2009

Army Lt. Col. Paul Yingling, one of the best officers I've encountered in Iraq, recently gave a talk at the Marine base at Quantico, Va., about military leadership and adaptation.

Continue reading “Worth a Look: A Year Ago This Week, Slam on Generals”

Haitians flee in fear as big aftershock hits

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti – The most powerful aftershock yet struck Haiti on Wednesday, shaking more rubble from damaged buildings and sending screaming people running into the streets eight days after the country's capital was devastated by an apocalyptic quake.

The extent of additional damage or injuries caused by the magnitude-6.1 temblor was not immediately clear, AND Prime Minister Jean-Max said the government was sending a plane and an overland team to check on the situation in Petit-Goave, the center of this morning's aftershock.

The U.S. Geological Survey said Wednesday's quake was centered about 35 miles (60 kilometers) west-southwest of Port-au-Prince and 6.2 miles (9.9 kilometers) below the surface — a little further from the capital than last week's epicenter was.

“It kind of felt like standing on a board on top of a ball,” said U.S. Army Staff Sgt. Steven Payne. The 27-year-old from Jolo, West Virginia was preparing to hand out food to refugees in a tent camp of 25,000 quake victims when the aftershock hit.

Desperation amid quake aid logjam (Press Association)

The world still cannot get enough food and water to the hungry and thirsty, one week after an earthquake shattered Haiti's capital.

The airport remains a bottleneck and the port is a shambles. The Haitian government is invisible, nobody has taken firm charge, and the police have largely given up.

Haitian Airport Logjam Woes Persist

The Doctors Without Borders cargo plane carrying 12 tons of medical equipment, including drugs, surgical supplies and two dialysis machines, was turned away three times from Port-au-Prince airport since Sunday night despite repeated assurances of its ability to land there, the group said.

The 12-ton cargo was part of the contents of an earlier plane carrying a total of 40 tons of supplies that was blocked from landing on Sunday morning. Since January 14, Doctors Without Borders has had five planes diverted from the original destination of Port-au-Prince to the Dominican Republic. These planes carried a total of 85 tons of medical and relief supplies.

U.S. Diverts Spy Drone from Afghanistan to Haiti.

As part of the Haiti relief effort, the U.S. military is sharing imagery from one of its high-end, high-flying spy drones, the RQ-4 Global Hawk.

Sharing imagery from a spy drone may sound like an unusual move, but it's part of a larger push within the Pentagon to declassify and share imagery in stability operations and disaster relief.

SOUTHCOM, in fact, seems to be taking a page from STAR-TIDES. The command has set up two collaborative portals: One that is accessible to partner nations, international organizations, NGOs and academia; a second, designated “for official use only” (i.e., unclassified, but restricted) that is open to users across the Department of Defense.

Journal: Haiti Rolling Update