Journal: MILNET Intelligence Headlines

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Why Intelligence Keeps Failing (Herb Meyer)

There isn't a chance that these clowns will come up with the right answer, because they're the problem. Simply put, the reason our intelligence service keeps failing to connect the dots is because the officials in charge don't know how. And the blame lies squarely with President Obama — and alas, with President George W. Bush before him — for appointing managers rather than dot-connectors to run our intelligence service.

Our country has no shortage of world-class dot-connectors. They're in politics, in business, at think tanks, in the academic world, and at our leading research institutes. You catch glimpses of them in articles they write, speeches they give — and sometimes even as talking heads on television. Ask a dozen smart people to make lists of people they consider to be world-class dot-connectors, and you'll get a wide range of names, some of which will appear on more than one list. Now, do you really believe that any of these lists will include, say, counter-intelligence chief John Brennan, or CIA director Leon Panetta, or Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, or Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair? Are you kidding?

What Our Spies Can Learn From Toyota Luis Garicano and Richard A. Posner

Five and a half years after the report of the 9/11 Commission identified the cascade of intelligence failures that allowed the 9/11 attackers to achieve total surprise, the problems it highlighted persist: We learn of multiple, separate and unshared terrorist lists; of multiple agencies (State Department, CIA and the National Counterterrorism Center) unable to combine the tips they receive; of arbitrary rules, such as requiring proof of “reasonable suspicion,” rather than mere suspicion, to deny a visa to a foreigner; and of terrorists released from American custody to become leaders of al Qaeda abroad. There is the sense that nobody is in charge.

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Reference: COIN Planning & Knowledge

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Home Page

In accordance with our mandate to “help connect the dots” across multiple joint, interagency, intergovernmental, and multinational partners, the COIN Center and SO & SFA proponent offices are redoubling efforts to increase presence and activity on the COIN webpage [link here], COIN blog [link here], COIN Center Facebook fan page [link here] and Battle Command Knowledge System (for CAC holders) [link here].

Below are just three of the core represences being used in MNF-I's schoolhouse.  The military likes checklists and easy to understand, one reason the “Dynamic Planning Model” was called a “bird's nest” not useful to anyone on the ground–which is correct: it is supposed to be used for strategic level planning, programming, and budgeting, but the US Government does not “do” inter-agency strategic anything.

Strategy Checklist (1 Page)

Key Factors ASCOPE Table (1 Page)

Reconstruction Task Tables (54 Pages)

Phi Beta Iota: Put bluntly, neither COIN nor Stabilization & Reconstruction will ever be viable propositions until DoD implements the recommendations of both the 9-11 Commission (an Open Source Agency, but under diplomatic and civil affairs auspices, funded and operated by DoD) and the Defense Science Board's December 2004 Transitions to and from Hostilities (the OSINT portions were written by Dr. Joe Markowitz), the single persistent senior authority still associated with the U.S. Government.

AFRICOM Week in Review Ending 12 January 2010

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NOTE:  This offering ends 9 Feb 10 unless we can find a volunteer to do once a week.

YEMEN is addressed in CENTCOM Week in Review

Hot Topics

AA: Violence in Angola Puts South Africa on the Defensive 01/11/10

AA: Drug Titans and Coups 01/11/10

AA: Somalis fleeing to Yemen prompt new worries in fight against al-Qaeda 01/12/10

AA: Violence, fear and confusion: welcome to the Horn of Africa 01/09/10

AA: Western Sahara Separatist Splinter Group Challenges Algeria Backed Polisario 01/07/10

CD: Democratic Republic of the Congo: ICRC facilitates release of six armed forces … 01/07/10

DZ: Algeria says tightened US flight checks unfair 01/11/10

KE: Radical muslim cleric back in Kenya 01/10/10

LR: LIBERIA: Education and the Poverty Reduction Strategy 01/07/10

NG: Bomb plot forces new look at Lagos airport security 01/08/10

RW: Rwanda: Habyarimana Killed By His Own Forces 01/12/10

SD: The axis of instability in Sudan: oil wealth 01/10/10

ZW: Zimbabwe Government Halts Diamond Auction 01/08/10

Below the Fold: Instability, Special Operations, Security Forces, Foreign Affairs, Crime

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Journal: MILNET Intelligence Headlines

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Can Intelligence Be Intelligent? (Wall Street Journal)

By BRET STEPHENS      JANUARY 12, 2010

Exhibit A is last week's unclassified White House memo on the attempted bombing of Flight 253 over the skies of Detroit. Though billed by National Security Adviser Jim Jones as a bombshell in its own right, the memo reads more like the bureaucratic equivalent of the old doctor joke about the operation succeeding and the patient dying.

[For Exhibit B…] turn to an unsparing new report on the U.S. military's intelligence operations in Afghanistan. “Eight years into the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. intelligence community is only marginally relevant to the overall strategy,” it begins. “U.S. intelligence officers and analysts can do little but shrug in response to high level decision-makers seeking the knowledge, analysis, and information they need to wage successful counterinsurgency.”

That's not happy talk, particularly given that it comes from the man who now runs the Army's intelligence efforts in the country, Major General Michael T. Flynn. But Gen. Flynn, along with co-authors Paul Batchelor of the Defense Intelligence Agency and Marine Captain (and former Journal reporter) Matt Pottinger, are just getting warmed up. Current intel products, they write, “tell ground units little they do not already know.” The intelligence community is “strangely oblivious of how little its analytical products, as they now exist, actually influence commanders.” There is little by way of personal accountability: “Except in rare cases, ineffective intel officers are allowed to stick around.”

Military is awash in data from drones

HAMPTON, Va.–As the military rushes to place more spy drones over Afghanistan, the remote-controlled planes are producing so much video intelligence that analysts are finding it more and more difficult to keep up.

Air Force drones collected nearly three times as much video over Afghanistan and Iraq last year as in 2007–about 24 years' worth if watched continuously. That volume is expected to multiply in the coming years as drones are added to the fleet and as some start using multiple cameras to shoot in many directions.

Army General Tells a Little-Known Tale of Pre-War Intelligence on Iraq (CQ Quarterly)

It’s arguable that the few passages devoted to Marks’ below-the-radar role says more about the performance of the $44 billion-a-year U.S. intelligence community than the tens of thousands of words written about Dick Cheney, Donald H. Rumsfeld, George Tenet and Condoleezza Rice.

Why? Marks tells how U.S. troops went into Iraq with almost no idea where weapons of mass destruction were, and little idea of where units might stumble into sites holding chemical, biological, nuclear or radiological munitions.

When Spying Is A Gas (CQ Quarterly)

Desperate for intelligence on the movement of insurgents across the rugged landscape of Afghanistan, the Army is reaching back almost half a century for a surveillance craft that could linger in the sky for days to report on what it sees: the blimp.

Full Story Online

How nation's true jobles rate is closer to 22%

By JOHN CRUDELE     January 12, 2010

I've been mentioning that under-employed figure — called U-6 by the Labor Department — for years and I'm glad everyone else has finally caught up.

But that larger figure doesn't include a huge number of unemployed folks who have given up looking for work because they feel the search is hopeless. Last Friday's report said 661,000 such people left the labor force in December.

If you count these hopelessly unemployed, the real jobless rate is probably close to 22 percent.

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PACOM Week in Review Ending 10 January 2010

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NOTE:  This offering ends 9 Feb 10 unless we can find a volunteer to do once a week.

Hot Topics

AA: Australia's ties with India strained by another attack (Roundup) 01/09/10

AU: DNA tags for Queensland's future child criminals 01/09/10

CN: China's Web Crackdown Continues 01/11/10

CN: China's Xinjiang issues new anti-terror rules: state media 01/06/10

IN: Boeing says India keen to acquire 10 C-17 aircraft 01/08/10

JP: Japan indicts US soldier accused of negligent driving 01/07/10

LK: Dublin Tribunal to investigate Sri Lanka war crime allegations 01/06/10

MM: Myanmar Election Could Spark Rise In Refugees 01/06/10

NZ: New Zealand, US cooperate to fight terrorism, other threats 01/08/10

PH: CHR asks PNP to respect rights 01/11/10

PH: Mindanao state of emergency may stay 01/11/10

TH: N. Korean cargo plane seized by Thai police 01/09/10

Below the Fold: Instability, Special Operations, Security Forces, Foreign Affairs, Crime

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Event: 20-22 April 2010 Bolivia WORLD CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

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Two-Page Formal Notice

Bolivia: Invitation to the Peoples’ World Conference on Climate Change and Mother Earth’s Rights

Conference Home Page

See also:

Bolivia proposes world conference on climate change (Xinhua)

De Brún: Copenhagen failure puts onus on people's climate movement (Ireland)

Climate Change Mitigation: A Dire Necessity For Latin America And The Caribbean