NIGHTWATCH: Weak Signals – Sinai Instability, Suez Risk

08 Wild Cards

suez and sinaiSinai. Gunmen fired on the car of the commander of the Second Field Army in Sinai today. This is the third attack in four days in Sinai.

Comment: Security conditions in Sinai require watching because any threat to disrupt traffic in the Suez Canal most likely would emerge from the eastern, Sinai, bank of the Canal. The new administration cannot afford to show any sign of hesitation to control the Sinai militants. Army operations were supposed to have already begun, but no news outlet has confirmed them.

Phi Beta Iota:  An asymmetric attack on Suez traffic would not necessarily be land-based — there is so much traffic on either side of this bottleneck that speedboats with shoulder-fired rockets are an affordable and difficult to stop threat.