The Baseline Scenario
by Simon Johnson
Four types of people were directly affected by the Federal Reserve’s decision at the end of last week to allow major banks to increase their dividends and to buy back shares. Three of these groups – bankers, bank shareholders, and government officials – were somewhere between happy and delighted. The four group, US taxpayers, should be much more worried (see also this cautionary letter to the Financial Times by top finance academics).
The bankers’ reaction is obvious. They are officially released from the financial hospital ward that was set up for them in 2008. No matter that this was a very comfortable place with few conditions relative to any other bailout in recent US or world history – there were still restrictions on what banks could do and, naturally, bank executives chafed at these constraints.
In particular, banks were required to build up the equity in their business – insolvency is avoided, after all, while there is positive equity in a business. When shareholder equity is exhausted, creditors face losses. Read more….
Phi Beta Iota: The disingeneous will observe the Federal Reserve is neither Federal nor a Reserve, and they are correct. However, the complicity of the USG going back to Bill Clinton is breathtakingly irresponsible. Merely airing the truth and assuring public outrage would be salutory.