Berto Jongman: The State of Intelligence Studies

Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

The 4-day International Studies Association (ISA) conference is coming up in San Francisco in less than a month….3-6 April 2013….with the current status of Intelligence Studies Section panels copied below FYI….

Intelligence Studies Section Panels at ISA 2013 3-6 April 2013 in San Francisco, California

WA06: Wednesday 8:15 AM – 10:00 AM Panel Computational Approaches to Intelligence Analysis Chair & Discussant: Aaron B. Frank, George Mason University Multi-agent approaches to information operations: Evidence, contexts and a cognitive architecture Armando Geller Maciej M. Latek, George Mason University Seyed M. M. Rizi, George Mason University International Political Risk Assessments: Convergent Methods of Measuring Convergent Risks to Government and Business Bruce Newsome, University of Pennsylvania Frank Jr Plantan, University of Pennsylvania Bridging Analytic Silos Steven Bankes, BAE Systems Aligning simulations of networks with experimental results Elisa Bienenstock, Georgetown University Opinion Change: Dynamic Computational Modeling of Uncertainty, Incompleteness, and Inconsistency Eugene Santos, Dartmouth College

WA25: Wednesday 8:15 AM – 10:00 AM Panel Intelligence Archives Worldwide: The Consequences of Wider Access to Intelligence Records around the World Chair & Discussant: John R. Ferris, University of Calgary Writing History Backwards? Epistemology, Archives and Signals Intelligence Richard James Aldrich, University of Warwick The Past is Prologue: Researching US Intelligence History in US Archives Andrew Hammond, University of Warwick The Opening of the State Security Archives of Central and Eastern Europe John P. Maddrell, Loughborough University Declassification as a tool in the development of intelligence studies in Spain: the Franco Archives Gustavo Díaz Matey, Complutense University, Madrid From Kew to Kansas: Researching British Intelligence History in American Archives Christopher R. Moran, Warwick University Dealing with the Secret Police Files in East‐Central Europe: Intraregional Diffusion of the German Model Dragos Petrescu, University of Bucharest

WB25: Wednesday 10:30 AM – 12:15 PM Panel Intelligence Collection, Counterterrorism, and Counterinsurgency Chair & Discussant: Philip H. J. Davies, Brunel University Managing Human Intelligence Sources ‐A better way John Buckley, Middlesex University Coinistas versus New Wavers: The Debate on Counterinsurgency and Its Impact on Intelligence Support Lawrence Cline NYPD Intelligence: A Gold Standard, or a Tarnished Shield?  Erik Dahl, Naval Postgraduate School It's About the Dots! William J. Lahneman, Towson University Developing U.S. Intelligence Capabilities for Population‐centric Counterinsurgency and Stability Operations: Learning from Iraq and Afghanistan Nathan F White, National Defense University Open Source Intelligence Collection, Social Media, and Violent Extremism James Breckenridge, Mercyhurst University

WC25: Wednesday 1:45 PM – 3:30 PM Panel Escape the Anglosphere Chair Richard James Aldrich, University of Warwick Disc. Christopher R. Moran, Warwick University Myths of radicalisation: Britain, Pakistan and ISI Lewis Herrington, Warwick University The “Great Game” revisited: Intelligence and Security Sector Reform in Central Asia Davinia Hoggarth, University of Warwick Politics, Paranoia and Intelligence in India Paul Michael McGarr, University of Nottingham Intelligence, drugs and the global south Zakia Shiraz, University of Warwick Latino: Identity, CIA and US Foreign Policy in Latin America in 1980s Hollywood Cinema Simon David Willmetts, University of Warwick Dragons and Tigers and Bears, Oh My: Chinese, Indian, and Russian Intelligence Cultures in Comparative Perspective Matthew D. Crosston, Bellevue University

WD25: Wednesday 4:00 PM – 5:45 PM Panel Intelligence, Cultures, and Conflict Chair Timothy R. Walton, James Madison University Disc. Frances Flannery, James Madison University Comparative Analysis: Intelligence Doctrine and Global Terrorism S.C. Zidek, Mercyhurst University Mujahideen Warrior Culture: Examples from al Qaida and Taliban Narratives Jessica Huckabey, Institute for Defense Analyses Cultural Narrative for Analytic Tradecraft: Frameworks from the Humanities Rhian T. McCoy, Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University Understanding Radical Apocalypticism Timothy R. Walton, James Madison University

TA25: Thursday 8:15 AM – 10:00 AM Panel Understanding and Uncovering State Secrets Chair Christopher Moran, Warwick University Disc. Hayden B. Peake, CIA The JIC through the Looking Glass: Illusions of Openness and the Study of British Intelligence Rory Cormac, University of Warwick Concepts, Constitutions and Concealment: Cultures of Intelligence and of Secrecy in the UK and USA Philip H. J. Davies, Brunel University Reconciling Democracy and the Protection of State Secrets: South Africa's Recent Experience Stephane J. Lefebvre, Carleton University The Ostracised Origins of Intelligence Studies Jules Joseph Sebastian Robinson, Warwick University Deep Secrecy and Historical Experience Mark Stout, Johns Hopkins University Between Antimilitarism and Bilateralism: Japan's Evolving National Security Secrecy System Brad Williams, City University of Hong Kong

TB16: Thursday 10:30 AM – 12:15 PM Roundtable Presidential Theme Roundtable—Gauging the Accuracy of Expert Political Judgment: Is Change Really Accelerating?
Chair Phil Tetlock, University of Pennsylvania Part. Jason Matheny, IARPA Part. Richard K. Herrmann, Ohio State University Part. George Gerliczy, US Government

TB25: Thursday 10:30 AM – 12:15 PM Panel Intelligence Oversight and Control Chair & Discussant: Mark Phythian, University of Leicester The President’s Elephant: Assassination, Torture and the Evolution of the Threat Spectrum Aaron F. Brantly, University of Georgia Congressional Accountability and Media Coverage of an Intelligence Scandal or Failure Loch K. Johnson, University of Georgia “The role of external factors in intelligence control/ oversight in new democracies” Cris Matei, Naval Postgraduate School Congressional Oversight of the U.S. Intelligence Community Since 9/11: The More Things Change….Kathleen McGinnis, Trinity Washington University “Taking a Footnote” ‐‐Budgetary Oversight of the IC and the role of OMB Anne Daugherty Miles, National Intelligence University Recent developments concerning intelligence oversight and accountability in Canada: theoretical or merely budgetary implications? Stuart Farson, Simon Fraser University

TC25: Thursday 1:45 PM – 3:30 PM Panel New Management Prisms for Intelligence Systems Chair & Discussant: Jon Rosenwasser, US Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Intelligence: Learning from Knowledge Management Dalene Duvenage, 4Knowledge Analysis Solutions, South Africa The Intelligence Community as a High Reliability Organization Joe Faragone, University of Ottawa The Intelligence Legoland: Building Better Models of the Intelligence Process Arthur Steven Hulnick, Boston University National Intelligence Managers: Steering a Course through Shoal Waters Becky A. Roberts, National Intelligence University Building better intelligence frameworks through effective governance. Patrick F. Walsh, Charles Sturt University

TD25: Thursday 4:00 PM – 5:45 PM Panel Intelligence, Dictatorship and Democracy: Does Regime Type Matter?
Chair & Discussant: Thomas C. Bruneau, Naval Postgraduate School Disc.Cris Matei, Naval Postgraduate School The Conflict Between Intelligence and Democracy: The United States, United Kingdom& Israel A Challenge to and Refinement of the Conventional Wisdom Bruce Gockerman, Author Dean J Klovens, Triton College The Intelligence Community in Portugal. A Troubled Evolution from Dictatorship to Democracy Pedro B. Graça, ISCSP-UTL From Enemy to Informant: the Sharing of Intelligence After the Arab Spring Sarah-Myriam Martin-Brule, Bishop's University Is There a Chinese Model of Intelligence?
Peter Mattis, Jamestown Foundation Civic Education: The Overlooked Narrative of 9/11 Intelligence Community Reorganization Glenn Hastedt, James Madison University The Arab Spring and the Struggle for Power within Intelligence and Security Services: A Case Study of Egypt Juha Pekka J. M. Makela, Finnish National Defense University

FA15: Friday 8:15 AM – 10:00 AM Panel Intelligence and Foreign Policy: From Understanding to Action Chair & Discussant: Spencer L. Willardson, University of Iowa Diffusion of Knowledge Representations in Intelligence Studies Sorin-Gabriel Sebe, Bucharest University Intelligence Crisis and its Causes Barry H Steiner, California State University, Long Beach Understanding Intelligence in Foreign Relations – How Intelligence Shapes Debate and Policy in States Spencer L. Willardson, University of Iowa Grading Intelligence: The Use of Captured Records to Sharpen Analysis Kevin M. Woods, Institute for Defense Analyses

FA25: Friday 8:15 AM – 10:00 AM Panel Intelligence Education, Training and Research in the Black Sea Area Chair Ion Grosu, Romanian Intelligence Service Disc. Michael Andregg, University of St. Thomas From Profession to Discipline: Balancing, Training and Research for the Development of Romanian Intelligence Studies Cristian Barna, National Intelligence Academy Democratic Transformation and Intelligence System Reform: Georgia's Decade Experience David Bazghadze, GIS Training Center Building an Intelligence Culture within the Agency and the Society as a Whole: the Case of Romania Irena Dumitru, National Intelligence Academy Intelligence Culture Evolution Through the Lens of a New Democracy Alina Paun, Romanian Intelligence Service Smart Intelligence: From Conservative Ethos to Intelligence Culture Bogdan Prisecaru, National Intelligence Academy

FB25: Friday 10:30 AM – 12:15 PM Panel Learning from Intelligence History Chair & Discussant: Mark Stout, Johns Hopkins University Religion in the Intelligence Community during the Cold War Melissa A. Graves, University of Mississippi British Intelligence/Security Liaison: The Introduction And Development Of Middle Eastern Security Services Chikara Hashimoto, Aberystwyth University Looking for Meaning: Lessons from Mossad's failed adaptation to the post‐Cold War era, 1991‐2011 Tamir Libel, University College Dublin Strategic Intelligence Analysis and Policymaking in the US: Historical Perspectives Stephen Marrin, Brunel University The Historical Evolution of Apartheid Intelligence Services in South African, from 1969 to 1980 Kgoshi Mathabatha, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg A Theoretical Explanation of US Intelligence Transformation and Reform, 1941‐1953 Larry A. Valero, University of Texas at El Paso

FC25: Friday 1:45 PM – 3:30 PM Panel Improving Intelligence Analysis Chair & Discussant: Erik Dahl, Naval Postgraduate School Tracking the Spread of Structured Analytic Techniques: Trends and Traps Randy Pherson, Pherson Associates What Philosophy Can Do for Intelligence Terry C. Quist, U.S. Army The Analytical question: intelligence analysis, skills and professionalization in the post‐Iraq period.
Julian J. Richards, University of Buckingham Using Structured Analytic Techniques to Assess the Interrelationship between Warlordism and International Diffusion Randy Pherson, Pherson Associates Karen Saunders, Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence

FC45: Friday 1:45 PM – 3:30 PM Panel What is the Future of Weapons of Mass Destruction? ChairMichael Andregg, University of St. Thomas Disc.Arthur Steven Hulnick, Boston University Disc.Loch K. Johnson, University of Georgia Trends in Chemical Weapons Development and Application Stefan Brem, Federal Office for Civil Protection After Proliferation: Deterrence Theory and Emerging Nuclear Powers Joshua Rovner, U.S. Naval War College Forecasting Bioweapons Threats Kathleen M. Vogel, Cornell University Asia’s Nuclear Future Karen J. Winzoski, National University of Singapore

FD25: Friday 4:00 PM- 5:45 PM Panel Building Active Learning into Intelligence Studies Chair & Discussant: Stephen Marrin, Brunel University Simulations in intelligence: experience‐based learning and testing in intelligence analysis and production Ruben Arcos, Rey Juan Carlos University Indicators: a rigorous and adaptive tool for addressing diffusion Mary C. Boardman, Globlaytica, LLC Randy Pherson, Pherson Associates Professionalizing Intelligence Studies: Begin with the Educators Commander Toni N. Gay, U.S. Coast Guard Academy Intelligence The Future of Intelligence Education: “PIE” in the Sky?
Anne Daugherty Miles, National Intelligence University Lessons Learned From Intelligence Internships with Three Midwest Universities Chris Quillen, Advanced Technical Intelligence Center (ATIC) Ivory Tower or Mean Streets? The Role of Professional Experience in Faculty Qualifications for Intelligence Studies Courses and Programs. Jonathan C Smith, Coastal Carolina University

SB25: Saturday 10:30 AM – 12:15 PM Panel Beyond Big Data: New Approaches to Social Media for Intelligence Analysis Chair Sarah Miller Beebe, George Mason University/Ascendant Analytics Disc.Stephen Marrin, Brunel University #intelligence Carl Miller, King's College London Social Media Indicators of Instability in Bahrain: Looking Backward, Looking Forward Flannery O Becker, DGI Social Media Indicators of Russian Political Activism George S. Beebe, Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis Beyond Big Data & Buzz Metrics: Developing Targeted Analytic Frameworks for Social Media Analysis Sarah Miller Beebe, George Mason University/Ascendant Analytics Looking Where They Aren’t: Censorship Trends in Iran as Indicators of Political Dynamics Alexander Guittard, Defense Group Inc.
The Use of Social Media for Analysis of Hacking Communities Raymond E. Sontag, St. Antony's College, University of Oxford

SC25: Saturday 1:45 PM – 3:30 PM Panel Threat Perception and the Diffusion of Risk Analysis and Intelligence Chair David Strachan‐Morris, University of Leicester Disc.Julian J. Richards, University of Buckingham National Risk Assessment as Intelligence Support Stefan Brem, Federal Office for Civil Protection Individual Threat Perception and Small Group Decision‐Making in Crisis Situations Anna Daun, University of Cologne Thomas Jaeger, University of Cologne Risk as a Framework for a Constructivist Approach to Intelligence Studies Mark Phythian, University of Leicester Intelligence and Risk Assessment in the Fifth Domain of Conflict and Warfare: You are on Your Own Thomas A Quiggin, Carleton University The Need for Public Private Partnerships for Risk Identification and Mitigation Strategies for National Critical Infrastructures: The Example of National Transmission System Operation Doron Zimmermann Into the Unknown: Risk Assessment in the British Government's Iraq War Decision David Strachan-Morris, University of Leicester

SD25: Saturday 4:00 PM – 5:45 PM Panel Global Cities and Global Slums Chair John P. Sullivan, Los Angeles Sheriff's Department ChairRobert J. Bunker, Counter Threat Training Group Disc.Nils Gilman, Monitor 360 The Potential Implications of the Black (Beyond Feral; Criminal City) Ferality Level for the Westphalian State Robert J. Bunker, Counter Threat Training Group Censuses and Biometric Identification in Slum Stabilization and Security Alex Calvo, European University (Barcelona) Power and Underworld Alliances: A Comparative Analysis of Cooperation and Conflict among Drug Cartels Irina A. Chindea, Fletcher School, Tufts University Deception in Urban Operations: Intelligence Frontiers Adam Elkus, Georgetown University Monterrey Slums, Inter‐Cartel Conflict and the Rise of a City‐State? Nathan Jones, University of California at Irvine The Tet Offensive, the Media, and War James J. Wirtz, Naval Postgraduate School

NEW PANEL:  SC45: New Frontiers in Intelligence Studies Chair/Discussant: TBD ·Garcia: Perceptions on Security and Intelligence in Europe: The Case of Spain ·Crosston: Occam’s Folly: The Continued Chasm Between Academia and the Intelligence Community ·Arcos: Exploring the Links Between Intelligence and Public Relations ·Schneider: Understanding Intelligence Failure and Deterrence: A Quantitative Approach

In particular, please note:

(1) The participation of Ion Grosu, Deputy Director of Romania’s Intelligence Service (SRI) as chair of panel FA25, and other participants from the Romanian intelligence service and the Romanian National Intelligence Academy.

(2) The full day workshop on Intelligence Analysis, the Social Sciences, and History: Understanding and Explaining International Actors and Outcomes which is scheduled for 2 April (the day before the conference)….

Anyone can register and attend the ISA conference. Cost to register is $105 on the low end (student members) to $265 on the high end (non-members) with onsite registration possible…

In terms of additional information:
* A slightly dated version of the Intelligence Studies Section panels
* Useful information on the conference
* Full program
* Information on meetings and receptions (including the workshop and the business meeting)

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Click on Image to Enlarge

Phi Beta Iota:  A few interesting topics have been highlighted.  Heaven forbid they actually discuss intelligence with integrity across the eight tribes, with open source everything and M4IS2 as the normative standard for enabling hybrid public governance in the public interest.  Especially noteworthy is the complete absence of serious discussion of sources of information, corruption across the intelligence and policy communities, the absence of intelligence support to acquisition and Whole of Government operations, the need to integrate systems thinking and true cost economics into the discipline of intelligence, or the 360 degree evaluation of intelligence.

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Click on Image to Enlarge

See Also:

Manifesto Extracts

Open Source Agency (OSA)

Public Intelligence 3.1

Stephen Marrin: Evaluating the Quality of Intelligence Analysis: By What (Mis) Measure? With Comment by Robert Steele

Worth a Look: Books on Improving Intelligence Analysis

Worth a Look: Routledge Companion to Intelligence Studies


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