During FY 2014, the SOCCENT Commander requested a short-term effort to understand the psychological, ideological, narrative, emotional, cultural, and inspirational (“intangible”) nature of ISIL. The effort produced both high-level results and detailed analyses of the factors contributing to each question. The central finding was this: While military action might degrade or defeat factors that make ISIL successful, it cannot overcome what makes ISIL’s message and idea attractive.
Table of Contents & Downloadable Document Below the Fold
PDF (71 Pages): SMA Support to SOCCENT Whitepaper FINAL
Table of Contents
Background ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 1
Framework: Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI) ……………………………………………………………………………… 3
Qualitative Assessments ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6
SME Elicitation Virtual Think Tank: Ms. Sarah Canna (NSI) ……………………………………………………………. 6
Responses to ISIL in the Arabic Twittersphere: Drs. Randy Kluver and Jacquelyn Chinn (Texas A&M University) …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 11
ISIL Futures: An Organizational Leadership and Cyber Profile: Drs. Gina Ligon, Douglas C. Derrick, John D. Crowe, and Samuel Church (University of Nebraska, Omaha) ………………………………………………….. 15
Comparative Integrative Complexity of Baghdadi & Zawahiri: Dr. Jason A. Spitaletta (Maj, USMCR) (Joint Staff J7 and The Johns Hopkins University-Applied Physics Laboratory) ……………………………….. 19
ISIL’s Use of Ritualistic Decapitations as Psychological Warfare: Dr. Jason A. Spitaletta (Maj, USMCR) (Joint Staff J7 and The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory) ……………………………….. 23
Daesh’s Image of the State in Their Own Words: Dr. Lawrence A. Kuznar (Indiana University – Purdue University, Fort Wayne) ………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 27
Impact of ISIL on Strategic Evolution of MENA Region: Shalini Venturelli, Ph.D., American University 31
How Movements Decline: Historical Insights on how Da’esh Might “End”: Dr. Benjamin Jensen (Marine Corp University, Command and Staff College and American University, School of International Service) …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 38
Middle East and North African (MENA) Regional Narratives about the Post-ISIL Future: Dr. Rita Parhad, Dr. Anastasia Norton, Mr. Seth Sullivan, Ms. Alysha Bedig, and Mr. Jordan D’Amato (Monitor 360) … 43
ISIL’S Evolved Irregular Threat: John Watts (Noetic Corporation) …………………………………………………. 46
The Strategic Dimensions of the Competition between the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and al-Qaeda: Dr. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, Ms. Bridget Moreng, and Mr. Nathaniel Barr (Valens Global)… 51
Quantitative Assessments …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 54
Syria Stability Study Initial Overview of Findings: (TRADOC G-27 Athena Study Team Data Science, Models, and Simulations Operational Environment Laboratory) ………………………………………………….. 54
Analysis of the ISIL Influence Network: Mr. Randall Munch, Mr. Chris Worret, Mr. Cody Moreno, Mr. David Miles (TRADOC G27 [TBOC]) …………………………………………………………………………………………… 56
ISIL’s Network of Regional and International Relationships: Dr. Philip B. K. Potter (University of Virginia) ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 59
CTTSO MEADE ISIL Analyses: Dr. Dana Eyre and Mr. Jordan Willcox (SoSA Corp) …………………………… 62
