Which of these three assumptions is closest to your decades of experience?
A. Open sources are richer than the closed sources.
B. Open sources are as rich as the closed ones?
C. Open sources are the chiseled-out bits of closed sources which when put together can tell us about the closed sources they owe their existence to?
General Tony Zinni, USMC (Ret), then Commanding the US Central Command (USCENTCOM) engaged in two wars and twelve Joint Task Force (JTF) actions, is on record as saying that secret sources provided him with, “at best” 4% of what he needed to know.
What he did not address was the reality that most of what he needed to know, while available from open sources, was not actually discovered, discriminated, distilled, and delivered (D4) to him.
I will answer your questions directly and succinctly and then provide some concluding comments.
A. Open sources richer than the closed ones?
Open sources are vastly richer than closed sources in that they provide vastly more detail about vastly more topics and when properly developed — which no one is doing today — paint a mosaic of the past, present, and future that is impossible to replicate with closed sources.
Both open and closed sources suffer from the same challenges that Ben Gilad identified in his book, Business Blindspots–Replacing Your Company’s Entrenched and Outdated Myths, Beliefs and Assumptions With the Realities of Today’s Markets:
“Top manager’s information is invariably either biased, subjective, filtered, or late.”
A major problem with all “decision” systems that I have encountered is that they are driven by an obsession with budget share, personal power, and too often corrupted by bribery, blackmail, and/or brainwashing. They are not evidence-based or focused on the public or stake-holder interests, and “deciders” are not held accountable for true costs of bad decisions as long as those doing the bribing, blackmailing, and/or brainwashing are getting their desired outcomes.
Open sources are NOT useful in explaining plans and intentions that make absolutely no sense at all from an evidence-based perspective. For example, starting a war to achieve a number of illicit objectives including profit taking, money laundering, human trafficking, organ harvesting, and the settlement of Deep State scores with those who oppose them (Libya and Syria are examples), is not well explained by open sources.
Here is my original estimate of the value of open sources in relation to each of the major
I must emphasize, closed sources are ESSENTIAL in dealing with treason, white collar as well as black collar crime, and Satanic pedophilia. The secret world has been useless against those threats because the secret world is part of the Deep State and THRIVES on treason, crime, and Satanic pedophilia as best represented by the Zionists, Vatican, and the highest levels of freemasonry.
It is also important to note that closed sources take much more time to develop if done correctly (most CIA human secret agents are completely compromised, I do not believe CIA is capable of doing proper clandestine human intelligence anymore, and I consider the FBI’s counterintelligence capability to be totally compromised at the same time that the FBI and CIA are themselves part of the treason-crime-pedophilia network running the USA).
B. Open sources are as rich as the closed ones?
The best answer on this option is that it depends. I like the 80-20 rule. For any given question, 80% of the answer will be easy (open) and 20% of the answer will be difficult (closed). It is also vitally important to distinguish open and closed sources in relation to time, energy, and cost.
It is of course very stupid to use a spy when a schoolboy will do. As a general rule open sources in all languages should be fully harvested before investing in close sources on any given topic.
Below shows two estimates of the relative cost of both integrated open and close source processing toward conclusions, and the relative cost of four secret human intelligence functions versus eleven open human intelligence source streams.
The greatest failings across both decision-makers and collectors and producers of intelligence are failures of integrity and imagination. No one is held accountable for failing to get the requirement right, acquire all relevant open information before investing and risking closed sources, and do proper holistic analytics with integrated true cost economics on both single issues and complex intersecting issues.
C. Open sources are the chiseled out bits of closed sources which when put together can tell us about the closed sources they owe their existence to?
I coined the term Black OSINT in the 1990’s to describe open sources that were so explosively valuable in relation to normally closed programs that they would be immediately closed if anyone were aware we were tapping into them. This generally referred to foreign language analog sources and overt human contacts that are not normally developed by the CIA or DIA.
All closed sources are open sources that have been classified. The 6,000 patents that have been classified are a good example of this — all of those patents were created in the open (or at least in a gray limited disclosure environment) and then classified after the fact. Even extraterrestrial technology including free energy, anti-gravity, cloning, and healing technologies were “open” before they were “closed.”
In my view it is not technologies or installations or budgets that are truly closed but rather “plans and intentions” that do not conform to the public interest and to what a normal ethical person would do given open evidence as to costs and benefits. EVIL IS A CLOSED SOURCE. We will not defeat evil until the secret intelligence agencies stop being part of the network of evil.
I recommend the below book, to which I wrote the Foreword, on this point.
My latest work on intelligence as a craft is here:
PRINT: Steele, Robert, REINVENTING INTELLIGENCE: 30 Years in the Wilderness (Trump Revolution 46) (Amazon CreateSpace, Earth Intelligence Network, 2019).
KINDLE: Steele, Robert, REINVENTING INTELLIGENCE: 30 Years in the Wilderness (Trump Revolution Book 46) (Amazon Kindle, Earth Intelligence Network, December 2019).
FREE ONLINE: None; individual items online.
My most current work on where I wish to go is below.
Note: Short URL for the entire series including new posts is