Theophillis Goodyear: Complex Systems Dynamics, Hueristics, & Poetry

Architecture, Culture, Design, Knowledge, P2P / Panarchy
Theophillis Goodyear
Theophillis Goodyear

Powerful and effective heuristics are the only way to quickly communicate the complex understandings required to save humanity, because they facilitate quick feedback. They break through information logjams. They reduce information overload. The various elite powers on the planet use heuristics in the form of propaganda to mislead the people and drive them like cattle toward a predetermined objective. But they have a great advantage over us. It's easier to confuse than enlighten. It's easier to destroy than to build. It's easier to get people to misunderstand complexity than to get them to understand it.

So unless we become clever at heuristics, we are outnumbered and outgunned. And we need to be cognizant of any model that can help us dilate the conduits of feedback to the point where our big picture understandings can spread like lightening to the general public. There are many ways to do this, mostly by commandeering well-understood terms and putting them to new uses.

While I was watching the Boston Marathon bombing coverage I heard them talk about victims who were at one point in critical condition but who had been reevaluated to serious condition. And it made me want to look up the precise definitions of these terms. That's when I saw that they could have usefulness describing all kinds of complex social dynamics. After all, that's what systems theory is all about. The five terms are: undetermined, good, fair, serious, and critical. You can find definitions here at wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_state

Briefly, they are: waiting assessment; stable within normal limits; indicators are favorable; indicators are questionable; and indicators are unfavorable. These concepts can be applied at every level and context of social dynamics because they are terms that describe systems. And as Donella H. Meadows stressed, the whole point of systems theory is to cut through all the jargon of the multiplicity of specialties. The point is to make things as simple as possible without making them too simple. Simplify but don't oversimplify.

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Neal Reauhauser: Exploring E-International Relations

Access, Crowd-Sourcing, Culture, Design, Governance, Knowledge, P2P / Panarchy
Neal Rauhauser
Neal Rauhauser

Exploring e-International Relations

When I was checking out the Think Tanks & Civil Societies Program I noticed e-International Relationsthe world’s leading website for students of international politics. They had an About page similar to that of Wikistrat, listing all of their volunteer editors and some additional information on them.

Last night I entered most of that information into e-IR-base, a Maltego graph. Those who want to follow along can download the graph file, get the free Maltego Community Edition, and do a portion of the things I do with it. The free version has very limited access to Paterva‘s transform servers, so I will provide the necessary intermediate files.

Click on Image to Enlarge
Click on Image to Enlarge

This is a top level view of the e-IR graph. What I say next presumes some knowledge of hands on work with Maltego.

The lavender dots are Person entities – a place for a first and last name, and like every entity you can makes notes and attach files to it. The blue dots at the upper right are URL entities and they contain links to an editor’s profile on the official site. Not everyone has a profile – this seems to be for people who produce their own content as well as work as editors. The five green dots are Twitter accounts, the five blue dots with an orange dot in the middle are LinkedIn profiles and an entity for the domain itself.

Maltego provides different types of entities, but here at the start we are only using Person, Domain, URL, and Phrase. Maltego provides a way to group different types of entities using colored stars – blue, green, yellow, orange, and red. This is useful for searching and organizing tasks – if you run a transform that starts with the five Twitter accounts shown here, but gets back over a thousand responses, how do you spot your originals?

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Neal Rauhauser: Investigating Wikistrat & Comment on Twitter with Links

Crowd-Sourcing, P2P / Panarchy, Sources (Info/Intel)
Neal Rauhauser
Neal Rauhauser

Wikistrat Investigation Summary

Having had some success in domestic policy decision making, with Progressive Congress News being the final result, I thought I would see if there was anything that needed doing in the realm of foreign policy.  Wikistrat, [allegedly] the world’s first Massively Multiplayer Online Consultancy (MMOC), was something that was immediately visible once I graphed my personal contacts. I wrote six posts about them as I mapped their network.

Foreign Policy Process – I graphed my contacts in the foreign policy field, I found a bunch of the top organizations and subscribed to their news feeds, and then I noticed the Wikistrat group.

Foreign Policy Organizations & Individuals – two of Wikistrat’s 156 experts were LinkedIn contacts for me. I explored the subset of members who had Twitter accounts and speculated as to what additional information could be learned about them with just social media as a starting point.

Exploring Wikistrat With Maltego – Starting with the Twitter accounts of the roughly two dozen Wikistrat members, I extracted the information from current discussions of one of the busier members, hunting for signs of issue focused communities of which the Wikistrat analysts are members. I didn’t make any great discovery, this is just an exposition on the process I used.

Wikistrat’s Analysts & Friends – I extracted the list of well connected contacts for the identifiable analyst Twitter accounts. A small connected network was revealed, but it broke down as soon as I removed the organizational role accounts that were found. This fits my expectation – Wikistrat analysts have rich interactions, but they didn’t self-organize with Twitter as a base and it seems likely they don’t participate in public theater in support of their conclusions.

Wikistrat Full Network As Of 3/30/2013 – I finally had a full Wikistrat map – the names of every member and their associated profile on the company web site. Some had LinkedIn or Twitter accounts, with the professional network being found for 40% of members and Twitter accounts being located for 20%. Overlap of LinkedIn and Twitter accounts was rare – only 2% – 3% show this pattern. I applied Named Entity Recognition to the profiles on both Wikistrat and LinkedIn. I thought I might be able to identify geographic clusters, employment clusters, or education clusters. The Wikistrat profiles are very regular in their layout, but quite resistant to the efforts of the Alchemy and OpenCalais NER products. A hand coded script with a little regex could be applied to the Wikistrat profiles, but I have not continued down that path.

Hashtags & Humans – I retrieved the most recent dozen tweets for all of the Wikistrat analysts, then extracted the hashtags they were using. I found that there were some hashtags that were congregation points, but that it was more common for there to be clusters of related tags.

Maltego provides a slider that allows four different volumes of information to be returned from a transform, their term for a query. The settings are 12, 50, 255, or 10,000. Twitter related transforms often stop at 100 entities, a limit enforced by Maltego publisher Paterva’s servers. Named Entity Recognition services are tuned for actual language and don’t perform terribly well on bodies of text with specific formats, nor were they all that useful in terms of picking out entities from tweets. Once tweets were available, hashtag extraction produced useful information, but there are performance constraints here as well.

Technical performance considerations aside, this process did reveal useful information, and some old wisdom from noted social network analyst Yoga Berra are still quite applicable today:

You can see a lot just by observing.

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Berto Jongman: YouTube (8:21) Dare to Imagine – Insprinig Short Video on Social Entrepreneurship

Crowd-Sourcing, Design, Innovation, Mobile, P2P / Panarchy, Resilience
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

Confucius:  “more than enough is too much”

Ariana Huffington: “the decision-makers are not acting in the best interests of the public”

Voice Over: “socio-economic evolution out of synch with natural evolution”

Joichi Ito: “frugal engineering happens in the absence of abundance”

Many good endeavors still working in silos.  Sharing and cross fertilization not there yet.

Those who have been sideline by power now have ability to by-pass power and connect to all.

Published on Apr 10, 2013

What will the world look like in 50 years? The problems facing our world are so large that they demand disruptive thinking. We don't have time to think in incremental terms. It's time to challenge the status quo, and dare to imagine what we can do.

For more disruptive thinking, sign up for the Skoll World Forum newsletter, at http://www.skollworldforum.org

Jean Lievins: P2P Energy & Metering

05 Energy, P2P / Panarchy, Resilience
Jean Lievens
Jean Lievens

Energy crisis – The path to P2P energy

This is the 1st of a 3 part series by Silvia Garcia Alonso on P2P responses to the water and energy crisis. The text is also available in Spanish on her website.

Energy is the engine of our economy. An economy based on growth that permanently demands larger amounts of energy. During the 20th century, especially during the second half of it, economic growth has come hand in hand with the easy access to fossil fuel resources, something that at that time seemed to be virtually inexhaustible.

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Net metering – Towards a distributed electrical grid

This is the 2nd of a 3 part series by Silvia Garcia Alonso on P2P responses to the water and energy crisis. Click here for Part 1.

We have already talked about the energy crisis and the need to achieve energy independence through self-generation and the birth of P2P energy networks. At that point we were always talking about communities or households, but the logic applies equally to the distribution and generation of energy in every single country.

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Berto Jongman: World Citizens’ Truth Network Begins?

Architecture, Crowd-Sourcing, Innovation, P2P / Panarchy
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

How might we gather information from hard-to-access areas to prevent mass violence against civilians?

Worldwide Information Network System

A web-based, open platform for actors in all sectors to share, visualize, and analyze data related to the underlying conditions of conflict that exist in areas prone to violence and mass atrocities globally to inform policy and enable action.

Click on Image to Enlarge
Click on Image to Enlarge

Atrocity prevention is about more than collecting and presenting data about conflict risk and opportunities for peacebuilding in an eye-catching and clever way. We also need to present data in a way that simultaneously entices and helps facilitate exchanges among networks of actors who don't usually talk to one another. All sectors must be creatively engaged and working together to effectively confront the challenges that make up the underlying conditions of conflict. These social, economic, political, and security issues are all interrelated. Absent the big picture, solving one problem in isolation may just exacerbate another.

Continue reading “Berto Jongman: World Citizens' Truth Network Begins?”