Reference: COIN Dynamic Planning, Full Text Found

DoD, Peace Intelligence

Phi Beta Iota: The below material is a bit cluttered as it was built up over time as the individual pieces came to light.  The important point in our view is that each element of the dynamic planning model is an intelligence (decision-support) requirement, and the U.S. Intelligence Community is completely unable to address of of them in a tactical near-real-time neighborhood level of granularity such as Dr. Stephen Cambone knew in 2000 we would need.  This is why General Flynn says intelligence is not helping in Afghanistan.  95% of what we need to know to support this planning and operational campaign management model is available for open sources of information–multinational open sources of information.

Full Story Online

UPDATE:  Full Text Found

The Hairball that Stabilized Iraq: Modeling FM 3-24 by Brett Pierson, Walter Barge, and Conrad Crane

Phi Beta Iota: These guys were around long before the new handbook came into being, and chances are most of it was drawn from their earlier work.  This is righteous brilliant good stuff, and it is precisely the kind of thinking and leadership process that should go into Whole of Government Planning, Programming, and Budgeting, if we can ever get the Office of Management and Budget back in the business of “managing” to outcome and effect.

UPDATE: A single page of text has come available and the slides are now infamous after media discussion.  Below is the graphic used in the NBC report:

Original Briefing without Text

We thought we would add  a couiple of thoughts:

1)  Whole System thinking is long over-due for a renaissance.  We have a government that overseas is all fist and no brain or heart, while at home it is all lips and no brain or heart.

2)  If you think of the world as a three level chessboard, the bottom level is the Earth–natural resources and the specifics of the atmosphere, climate, and so on.  The middle level is the vast public, a power that cannot be suppressed in the long run.  The top level is the Industrial Era menage a plus of governments, corporations, and other institutions, all working on a zero-sum basis, none actually willing to share information or work from a shared Strategic Analytic Model to harmonize spending.

3)  The dynamic planning model, the Navy’s global gaming, the DARPA efforts to “simulate” what everyone on the planet is thinking, all are the right idea executed in the wrong way: divorced from reality.  Creating a World Brain Institute with an embedded Global Game that absorbs all true cost information as it becomes available is the fastest possible way to “get a grip” and achieve non-zero infinite wealth.

New York Times on Colbert Adaptation
IO & Ground Truth Briefing
IO & Ground Truth Briefing

We’re in the process of trying to track down the Army originator of this brief, which is both exquisitely focused and extraordinarily complex.

Below is a first cut–nothing more than an ugly concept for consideration, of what could become a generic approach to assuring our personnel going in harm’s way that everything possible has been study to study, understand, and plan for every aspect of what we call Stabilization & Reconstruction Operations, what others call Occupations.

Memorandum: $2 Billion Obligation Plan Centered on Defense, for a New Open Source Agency

Budgets & Funding, Memoranda

This is the budget created to support Col Vincent Stewart, USMC, then the action officer for surveying Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) reequirements and capabilities across the Department of Defense (DoD).  This amount–not necessarily these specific priorities–was offered to the U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), which continues to have the only full-spectrum OSINT capability in the USA, but turned down by subordinates to the Combatant Commander who did not understand that the Long War is a war of both ideas, and universal coverage at the neighborhood level of granulaty, as Dr. Stephen Cambone so wisely called for in January 2004.

If $1.5 Billion is added to this budget for 50 Community Information-Sharing and Sense-Making Networks, a total of no less than $3 billion a year, and ideally $3.5 billion a year, is recommended.

$2B for OSA
$2B for OSA

2004 Stephen Cambone, Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence, Speech to the Security Affairs Support Association (SAS) on Need for Universal Coverage at the Neighborhood Level of Granularity

About the Idea, Briefings (Core), Historic Contributions, Military
Stephen Cambone
Stephen Cambone

Dr. Stephen Cambone was a fine Undersecetary of Defense for Intelligence (USD(I)) given the context he was in and the policy personalities he was dealing with.  His most brilliant moment, for the public interest, came on 22 January 2004 when he spoke to the Security Affairs Support Association (SASA) about the need for universal coverage at the neighborhood level of granularity.  When combined with Boyd Sutton’s findings on the Challenge of Global Coverage (Frog Left), and the 9-11 Commission depiction of an independent Open Source Agency (OSA) on page 413 of its report (Frog Right), the stage is now set for the present USD(I) to finally get moving on this program with an Initial Operating Capability (IOC) of no less than $125 million a year, as has been agreed to by OMB principals and key staff on successive occasions.

Stephen Cambone
Stephen Cambone

The other two legs of the DoD OSINT stoolare below.  Note that the 9-11 Commission did not have time to fully understand the OSA it was recommending; all serious practitioners have agreed that it cannot be within the secret intelligence world, but rather outside the wire, perhaps under joint Defense Intelligence (DIA) and Civil Affairs (CA) proponency, the first responsible for firehosing all OSINT to the high-side, building the bridge from Intelink-U to the SIPR Net; the second responsible for both ingesting all open source information from multinational partners including Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO), and for multi-national information-sharing and sense-making at the unclassified level, all of which is both shared liberally without secret world constraints, and also feed immediately to the high-side for further explotation by all-source analysts with access to all available classified information.

Challenge of Global Coverage
Challenge of Global Coverage
Open Source Agency
Open Source Agency (9-11 Commission)