Pierre Cloutier: A View of Concern About the North American Union

Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence
Pierre Cloutier
Pierre Cloutier

A respected commentator in French (here is Google translation to English):

The new American superpower

A new ideological and geopolitical discourse is now to appear in the American economic and military circles political leaders. Faced with the rise of Chinese power, soon to be, inevitably, the largest economy in the world in terms of production, we begin to hear a new speech in Washington: The world's leading power for at least two decades to come, will not China, but the whole formed by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

This set, they say, should be considered as a single country: economic integration, which began with the introduction of NAFTA, is now well advanced. The three countries have the same ideology, the same interest in defense and cooperate closely on all fronts, economic, cultural and military. Mexico has become a modern country where the rule of law is respected, as in the other two countries. Mexico and Canada Americanized high speed and the economic and cultural integration is considerable

This scenario is not unlikely. This set is indeed the first power in the world and will be long: a current total population of 470 million, which will be 540 million in 2030. A total GDP of 19,000 billion, which will be at least 25,000 billion by 2018. In both cases, much higher than China.

The United States, who are naturally a leader of the coalition, would delay and, as the Roman Empire, the time of its decline. All American strategy will therefore focus on the success of this economic integration, complemented by political integration, using for it the mass media. And integration may be easier to achieve than that tempt members of the European Union: The Americans are only three, with a dominant power may try to dictate.

This would have significant geopolitical consequences. Domination of North America to South America, and Europe, which does not measure, for example, the consequences of such a union on commercial negotiation begins with the United States alone.

However, many obstacles are opposed: First, because the differences in living standards between the United States and Mexico are huge: Mexico's GDP is lower than that of Canada, with a population four times . Population dynamics are also very different: the median age was 38 years in the United States and Canada and 26 in Mexico, and it will be in 2030, 40 years in the USA and 33 years in Mexico. In addition, much of the economic integration of these countries is criminal: two-thirds of the marijuana consumed in the United States are imported from Mexico. 95% of the cocaine entering the territory of the United States come from Mexico. Overall, the drug in the United States would yield $ 30 billion a year to Mexican cartels, fueling a real shadow economy represents more than 3% of Mexico's GDP. With extreme deadly consequences: violence would have nearly 100,000 people dead or missing in the past six years. This will undoubtedly be an excuse to share considerable military means.

Additionally, Mexicans and Canadians are very concerned about their independence, since their inception, and have no reason to accept the challenge. Neither Francophones or Hispanics not accept the dominance of English. They are far from accepting the dollarization of their economies.

Unless, by a reversal of history, the United States has become Mexicans: In 2050, the United States should be the first Spanish-speaking country in the world, the Hispanic population will then represent 30% of the population ( 132 million people against 52 million (17% of the population) today) and then represent two-thirds of the population of NAFTA. This alliance could therefore be ultimately for the United States today, a fool's bargain. As was the case for many empires before them.

We have today a race between two sets trying to integrate politically. For us to do so soon. And not to abandon the French more important than ever to American communities.

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