Worth a full read.
Here is the Trump political logic: “Alabama is extremely critical,” a close associate of Trump’s told me (actually, we agreed I’d call him “a close associate of Mr. Trump”). “You have Iowa’s caucus on February 1st, New Hampshire on the 9th, and South Carolina on the 27th.” The race, this associate explained, would not be wrapped up by then. According to this political calculus, the crucial moment arrives three days later, on March 1st, with the “SEC primary”—the belt of Southern states that encompass the Southeastern Athletic Conference—when Alabama, Texas, Georgia, Arkansas and several others hold their primaries.
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If Trump sweeps the early states, or even just wins Iowa and South Carolina, these advisers believe he could effectively lock down the Republican nomination by sweeping the SEC primary on March 1st. “He feels he wins the nomination on 1 March w/ a sweep of the populist anti-establishment South,” another adviser emailed. “That’s when Trump’s ‘nationalism’ coupled with Sessions’ ‘populism’ comes to full fruition.”
Phi Beta Iota: On his current course, Trump could perhaps capture the GOP nomination, but absent a radical evolution of his thinking, staff, and campaign, he is unelectable. We see instead an Independent ticket, Angus King – Kirsten Gillibrand, surging after Hillary Clinton drops out and Martin O’Malley wimps up. The jury is still out on whether electoral reform will become a central topic this year, in time to put independent and small part candidates into the 20-30 vacated seats in Congress. The progressive press (Rolling Stone, Mother Jones, Slate, Truth-Out, what’s-her-face at MSNBC) is utterly worthless right now. There is no “independent” press, and the electoral reform activists are stove-piped and ineffective.
PS: Alabama is a bust. 15,000 instead of 40,000. Bernie Sanders still rules in terms of delusional crowd massing.