With a tip of the hat to the brilliant Arnold Zeitlin, here is the math that makes The Donald certain to be the Republican nominee — and if he radically upgrades his staff — the winner in the general election.
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So here’s an adventure in arithmetic to determine trump’s position.
right now, trump has 743 delegates and needs 494 of the remaining 867 still available in upcoming primaries. the following states (with delegate totals in brackets) are scheduled to hold winner-take-all primaries: delaware (16), maryland (38), pennsylvania (71), indiana (57), nebraska (36), california (172), montana (27), new jersey (51), south dakota (29). the primaries that trump is likely to win, based on current polling, are pennsylvania, california and new jersey. they represent 294 delegates who would bring trump’s total to 1,037. trump is unlikely to win the western and midwestern states but should defeat ted cruz(kasich is not a factor) in delaware and maryland for another 54 delegates, raising his total to 1,091. the following states (delegate totals in brackets) are scheduled to hold proportional primaries or otherwise votes that split the delegate count according to the voting pattern: new york (95), connecticut (28), rhode island (19), west virginia (34), oregon (28), washington (44), new mexico (24). they represent 272 delegates.
if trump reaches 1,091 delegates as above, he needs 146 from the seven proportional-or-otherwise primaries. he is polling well in new york and could split the 95 total there. give him at least 50 in new york, bringing his total needed to reach 1,237 to 96 of the remaining 177, or 54 percent.
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ROBERT STEELE: if Donald Trump finally embraces some of the ideas I have been offering to all of the candidates, but Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump particularly, he will not only win the nomination and the general, but he can turn Congress inside out, neutralizing the corrupt Establishment by installing 20-30 Independent and small party voters, if he will work with Senator Paul Rand and the Tea Party Republicans in the House, to force passage of the Electoral Reform Act of 2016. Trump has the integrity necessary to win, his campaign appears to lack the broad imagination to deliver the whole enchilada. There is a huge Bernie Sanders aspect to all this — Sanders, along with other Senators such as Rand Paul, has the power to introduce the Electoral Reform Act of 2016, see graphic below, note the end of the super-delegates at point 12. I would vote for Trump with a strong Latina (say Ellen Ochoa, former astronaut, from Texas), or Bernie Sanders with Cynthia McKinney as the declared VP after passage of the Electoral Reform Act — the Republican majorities in control of the Senate and House have to see the win-win for everyone. Out of that — and a flushing of Congress — comes an honest government. Bernie Sanders as President in his own right or as VP if Trump chooses to restore the original Constitutional intent of the runner-up being the VP? Bernie Sanders as Senate Majority Leader? I see nothing but good along these lines of thinking. If Sanders fails to rise to this possibility, then Trump-McKinney, execute the virtual ConCon, unemployment workshop, fantasy cabinet, balanced budget, and full employment plan, and it is game over. Imagination, anyone?
Steele, Robert. “Counter-Coup: How Trump Can Win,” CounterPunch, August 14, 2015.
Steele, Robert. REVOLUTION!: How Donald Trump Can Win and Govern by Championing Electoral Reform, a Coalition Cabinet, a Balanced Budget, and a Constitutional Convention in 2018, Amazon Kindle, March 16, 2016, 111 pages, 99 cents.
Steele, Robert. Democracy Riots! We are all black now – deal with it!, Amazon Kindle, March 22, 2016, 24 pages, 99 cents.
Steele, Robert. Sanders for President as an Independent? The Game Plan, Amazon Kindle, December 18, 2015, 12 pages, 99 cents.
* My focus is on restoring integrity to the system, and particularly on restoring Article 1 of the US Constitution. Bernie Sanders and his staff are if anything even more comatose in the imagination department than Donald Trump and his staff; on balance, I think Donald Trump can win this, but how he wins matters. If he does not embrace the ideas in the above references — and the most radical idea of all, committing to restoring the Constitutional tradition of offering the runner-up the Vice Presidency — he will win ugly and he will not be able to govern.The Electoral Reform Act of 2016 will make Bernie Sanders, not Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate by eliminating all party manipulations of the delegate system. Trump and his family are at very high risk — he is vastly more threatening to the Establishment than Ross Perot ever was, and not at all likely to fold as Perot did when Perot and his daughter were both threatened with assassination. Regardless of who is “elected” president by one of the most fraudulent systems on the planet — one that both Princeton University and Jimmy Carter have declared is not a democracy — if Trump and Sanders can make common cause on Electoral Reform in time to break the back of the two-party tyranny in Congress, focusing on the 20-30 vacated seats, we will end up with a better government closer to our idea of being of, by, and for We the People. Somewhere in here there needs to be a deal on Israel, an agreement to close down all our bases overseas and stop creating terrorists with our wanton invasions and occupations and support for repressive regimes, and most importantly — a theme of Truth and Reconciliation with the “Establishment” — keep what you’ve stolen, just get out of the way of our saving civilization by first making American great again (including full employment) and then uplifting the five billion poor with intelligence and integrity so they want to stay home.
NOTE: the Committee on the Judiciary is important to securing Senate and House consensus on electoral reform, but the two key committees are the Committee on Rules and Administration (Members) in the Senate and the Committee on House Administration (Members) in the House of Representatives. Naturally there is the issue of avoiding ex post facto legislation, the point is to get the “Establishment” — the two-party tyranny — to see that an Electoral Reform Act is how we settle the waters and avoid a violent revolution.