Andrew Garfield: 2018 Mid-Term Warning for Republicans II

Cultural Intelligence
Andrew Garfield

Commenting on the article you sent, “Americans Strongly Dislike PC Culture:”

I think the numbers on the Conservative/Trump base at 25% of the electorate is about right. As is the number for the hard left. But this study strongly smacks of a group of academics with a theory that they used a survey to prove.

Despite its flaws, I do think this survey reveals a cause for great concern to the GOP. With up to 50% of the electorate tired of political correctness but also imbued with shared social values, that include moderate to very moderate views on the social issues that matter the most to the hard left and hard right. That’s a huge swing vote. Much bigger than traditional analysis suggests. This is born out by issue based attitude research, which strongly suggests that a majority of Americans no longer oppose a total ban on abortion or gay marriage; who refute racism; and who support equal rights for women for example.

Those swing voters are not going to feel comfortable with a further move to the right and/or support a President who only ever plays to the 25% of hardcore Conservatives. Any more then they would support a swing to the hard left.

Assuming Trump does not shoot himself in the foot over the next 2 years or a world changing event occurs, with 50% or more of the electorate in play, 2020 will in my view come down to one simple thing. Who the Dems select to run against Trump. If it’s Warren or Saunders or someone of their ilk, then it’s anyone’s election. If it’s Biden or someone credible from the moderate wing of the Dems, I think Trump and the GOP are in real trouble.

In two years they will not be able to rely on the benefits of the tax cuts because those will have dissipated and they will have begun to seriously bloat our national debt. When the economy is doing ok to well, the electorate are also free to focus on other issues. So if the economy stays at the current level, I don’t think the economy is a winning issue. However, growing national debt, the negative impact of the tariffs, rising commodity costs, global instability resulting from our retreat from global leadership; rises in interest rates and or inflation could all seriously undermine the economy and that is definitely a loosing issue.

Many people will be without healthcare by 2020 or will have seen their health costs rise significantly wiping out the benefits of the tax cuts that they will see this year and which should help GOP candidates in 2018. That will hurt the GOP in 2020. And I honestly don’t see the GOP passing meaningful health case legislation over the next two years.

And finally the Administration’s tools for dealing with the growing debt are very limited. Basically reining in Government spending, which will mean cutting defense, welfare, social security or Medicare. That will hardly play well either.

And as I have pointed out before demographics are also against the GOP. A million old mostly conservative people are dying every year and are being replaced by young people who are inclined to vote Dem.  Yes the research for this article said that young people are tired of political correctness, which I believe is very true. However research focused only on young people has shown that they are much more socially liberal than the generation they replace on the electoral registers. They are the least racist generation ever. They are not unequivocal supporters of the Second Amendment the way baby boomers are. They don’t care about your sexuality or gay marriage. They are pro choice. They are worried about college debt. And like every generation before they they have a generally more idealistic view point at least until life bites them in the ass.

And by 2020 and certainly by 2024 the impacts of immigration will be felt in key GOP states like Texas and Florida. This Administration’s less then ideal attitude toward immigrants in general and Hispanics in particular is also not going to help if it persists. The recent Puerto Rican immigrants to Florida alone could deliver that state to the Dems in a general election. True they are lazy voters but they are angry about how they have been treated and that may be enough to get them out.

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Andrew Garfield: Warning Republicans I

Robert David STEELE Vivas

ROBERT STEELE: Andrew is as good as it gets among right of center pollsters (Ray Paul is the left of center pollster I follow with equal respect). Everything Andrew says merits deep consideration.  What he does not say is that  the President has the initiative — in a dead heat, which is what we have — the announcements, decisions, and actions of the President between now and Election Day will be decisive and should lead to the GOP holding the House.  I continue to believe he should do the following three things before Election Day, sooner than later.

01 Appoint Carol Mosely Braun to the UN as a :”healing” transpartisan appointment.  The last thing we need is another entitled white woman at the UN.  This would be a shock and awe appointment.  It hits three demographics — women, color, and Democratic fence  sitters.

Wikipedia/Carol Mosely Braun

02 Pardon the Black Panthers still in prison —  they are political prisoners.  Offsets/complements the Kayne West show.

Randy Short & Robert Steele: 12 Pardons = Black Male Vote [Comment by Cynthia McKinney]

03 Commit to #UNRIG Electronic Reform Act for passage in 2019 — that will get a bump with Independents and Libertarians and maybe even Greens.

Robert Steele & Cynthia McKinney: Former Representative and Intelligence Official Team Up to Unrig Elections