Andrew Garfield: A Conservative Pollster Reflects on 2019-2020

Cultural Intelligence
Andrew Garfield

Yes, President Trump has had some successes, most not reported at all by the mainstream media.

Both slides can spin this as much as they want. The reality is that the Democrats have gained an important advantage for the next two years. They can blow this advantage but I don’t think they will. So the Grand Old Party (GOP) has to get smarter.

We cannot afford to believe our own Information Operations (IO). Pelosi is the bogey woman but she is not a idiot. She is a formidable adversary with the power and influence to keep the extreme elements in the new congress under control. She also controls the purse strings and is effectively the now elected Speaker and de facto leader of the Democrats going into the general election. That means she has a lot of power to influence who gets nominated by the Democrats. She would clearly favor someone more moderate than the likes of Saunders. None of that is good news for the GoP.

Legislatively, the Administration can try to paint the Democrats as obstructing the President’s agenda. And that will play well with his base. But he won’t win the 2020 election with just his base. Whether that tactic works with the wider electorate depends largely on what he says and does over the next two years and the legislation he tries to push through and what is then blocked by the Democrats. A lot of the Adminstration’s IO is very short term. The feigned furor about the “caravan invaders” disappeared right after the election. That might have helped mobilize the base to vote but it has not helped the longer term effort to convince the wider public regarding his “wall” and immigration agenda. It looks more and more like the PR stunt it was. The danger is that more and more people start to see through these IO efforts.

Plus the effects of the tax cuts will be greatly reduced by 2020 and the pain of increased Healthcare costs for many middle and lower income families will be pretty painful by then. My 2019 health insurance bill would have gone from $900 to $1800 a month had it not been for the fact that my wife now works at a hospital and I am on her plan.

Finally and most importantly, the President has much less power and protection to prevent investigations into his life, business and finances as he did when the GOP controlled Congress and he has much less opportunity to thwart the Muller investigation. That is a really big deal. The Dems don’t have to strike a death blow to the Presidency. They would be stupid if they tried. And Pelosi is not stupid. The death of a thousand cuts is a far more effective strategy and can be inflicted over the whole two years, which means he can never escape that “knife” And we both know how badly he performs when distracted.

Life just got a whole lot more complicated.

RELATED:

Andrew Garfield: 2018 Mid-Term Warning for Republicans I

Andrew Garfield: 2018 Mid-Term Warning for Republicans II

Andrew Garfield: An Open Letter to Donald Trump — You Are Not a Party You Are a Phenomenon

Robert David STEELE Vivas

ROBERT STEELE: Andrew is the most gifted drill down pollster right of center — Paul Ray is his counterpart on the left. Everything Andrew says above tracks with what I tried to communicate to the President from day one with my emergency Christmas message that Reince Preibus shit-canned, my varied items in the Trump Revolution Series, the Trump Triumph proposal, and most recently, my 10 Moves post. Put most simply, if the Democrats succeed at capturing a fraction of the 70% of the eligible voters who are now disenfranchised, at the same time that the GOP stupidly sticks with the base and does not offer #UNRIG election reform to entice all voters to become active, Trump will not win with his Electoral College strategy in 2020. I am told there are a number of GOP donors and power elite that are very concerned to the point that “Plan B” is being widely discussed, with Mike Pence as the worst possible choice and John Kasich as the front runner.  Neither of them can beat the right Democrat.

See Especially:

Robert Steele: The Second American Revolution – Reflections on the Near Future

Robert Steele & Cynthia McKinney: Former Representative and Intelligence Official Team Up to Unrig Elections