You asked for my current thoughts.
Bottom line up front: The two most important things for Trump to do now is stop shooting himself in the foot. And second to recognize that he has the base locked down and stop playing to them. He is still very vulnerable and he needs to start winning over disaffected moderate Republicans, some independents and a few blue collar Dems. He won’t do that by playing to the GOP galleries with polarizing, inflammatory and alienating rhetoric. It’s time to be Presidential and appeal to a wider audience.
Trump is the only one landing punches on Trump. As a Republican Senator said “he did do what the Dems accused him off”. Even his own defense pretty much acknowledged that and their defense switched to it’s not a “high crime”. This distraction was entirely unnecessary. Get the DoJ to investigate the Biden’s. Or just make the accusations from the Bully Pulpit and let the people start to question Biden. Same outcome as now with no impeachment.
The Dems showed that they don’t believe that anyone else but Biden can beat Trump. They had the chance to seriously undermine Trump and vulnerable Republicans in the Senate. Call the GOP’s bluff and throw Biden under the bus. Let them call him and Hunter in return for Bolton and others. We all know Trump told Bolton to do it. Bolton won’t come forward voluntarily because he has a huge book deal.
Bolton’s testimony would have hurt Trump with undecided voters. The GOP would also have been hurt when senators voted to acquit him anyway. That would have been a big win for the Dems, if any other candidate stood a chance to beat Trump. Clearly they only believe Biden can beat Trump.
The two most important things for Trump to do now is stop shooting himself in the foot. And second to recognize that he has the base locked down and stop playing to them. He is still very vulnerable and he needs to start winning over disaffected moderate Republicans, some independents and a few blue collar Dems. He won’t do that by playing to the GOP galleries with polarizing, inflammatory and alienating rhetoric. It’s time to be Presidential and appeal to a wider audience.
I honestly thing Trump has been fighting against the establishment for so long he does not know any other way. He was won the party. He has secured his base. It’s time to win the fringes that he must still win to be sure of victory.
PS. We may come to rue the day we raised the bar for what is impeachable and acceptable presidential behavior. In the next 12-16 years we will get a Dem president and we will see Dem control of Congress. It’s inevitable. Imagine what a socialist could do with this precedent.
PPS. Complacency is the enemy of sustained success.
Over 200,000 people die each month. The majority of those are baby boomers. And the majority of BB vote Trump. That’s up to 2,000,000 million deaths by the election a significant majority of which are Registered Republicans. Conversely hundreds of thousands of 18 year olds have been added to the electoral roll since 2016. The majority of those, if they vote at all, vote Dem. Those numbers can swing a State or seat here and there. This won’t be a landslide. Trump is too polarizing. It’s going to be won in the margins. He is not fighting there.
PPPS: He lives in an echo chamber. I think these pep rallies are counter productive. They make him feel like he is really that popular and that it’s all fake news that he is not.
This election should be a slam dunk for the GOP given the strength of the economy and the preeminent position of the US in the world.
China is reaping the consequences of its own behaviors. The EU is seriously weakened. Iran is on the ropes.
We should be talking about how big a winning margin we will have. And whether we will get a super majority. Because Of demographics maybe the last chance for that in a generation.
He has to start being presidential. He has to stop being so alienating. And he actually needs to lead and not seems like all he is doing is campaign. Govern. Have successes.
Here is one other necessity. He needs to develop and launch a revolutionary manifesto for the next four years. Show how he intends to reshape American. Give Americans a vision for tomorrow. And that means addressing issues we do need to change. Welfare. Healthcare. Infrastructure. Societal inequality. The insane cost of education. He could easily steel all the arguments of the Dems by talking about he will deal with these issues.
Do revolutionary things in foreign policy. Offer a deal to Iran that recognizes that proper role in the world if they change. Offer North Korea a real deal that would give them huge opportunities and a US withdrawal if they give up nuclear weapons. These all aspirations. But that’s all you nerd to run on a revolutionary platform that could invigorate a lot of Americans.
Stop bitching about the deep state and be the President. He is not the renegade outsider in this election. He is the President.
PPPPs: I am not ready to write off Warren yet. First she appeals to the left too and Sanders is not always as popular with the left as it seems. Still a lack of trust there. I know a lot of Dems in New England for example who think he is a carpet bagger.
I would also not rule out Warren off a Dem ticket. As strange as it may seem Biden and Warren would have wide appeal to the Dems. He is the safe center left guy and she brings the progressives with her. And it still plays to the woman card. And it looks a lot less wacky to undecideds than Warren as the lead. Ironically Saunders could drive that. If Saunders leads but Biden can keep close to Saunders in the early ballots and Warren is a distant third it would make sense for Biden and Warrento join forces.
If Biden is out in front by Super Tuesday he can pick who he wants. Most likely Kolbachar over Gabbard. I don’t see him picking a guy.
Usually fellow travelers hare each other so I don’t see Saunders picking Warren. Again he would likely go with Kolbachar over Gabbard.
For me Bloomberg only becomes a factor if Saunders and Biden are tearing each other down and a “hero” riding to the rescue is viable. Again don’t rule out him picking Warren to secure the progressives.
Phi Beta Iota: Bloomberg lost twice today — in the Superbowl ad faceoff, and with the below photo and article. He’s gone.