I think he is wrong. Most, not all, have figured out that the fake pandemic, like the Russian witchhunt and the impeachment, were attacks on the President and attacks on America. Most see the contrived social unrest based on lies and using illegal aliens imported by Obama. And most are FURIOUS over the “cancel” culture and the lack of integrity among the crap “leaders” who agree to fire people for speaking their mind.
Below are his Keys to Victory leading him to call the 2020 election for Joe Biden (who may drop out according to my DNC source Deep Anus, to be replaced by a major Republican for a split ticket. Colin Powell and Elizabeth Warren come to mind.
I have added my comment in Trump Red. Make of it what you will. I think Trump wins, but I am concerned that he is not on track for the Mother of All Landlines.
Lichtman himself offers a note of caution in his video for the Times. “There are forces at play outside the keys,” he said, such as voter suppression and potential Russian election meddling.
Here’s where Trump and Biden stand in Lichtman’s model, along with Lichtman’s responses from the video:
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm elections.False. “Republicans lost the U.S. House midterms in 2018.” STEELE: Jared Kushner sabotaged Trump Transition, and GOP sabotaged mid-terms. Revenge against both will be sweet.,
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. True. “No Republicans challenged Trump.” STEELE: This is actually a problem. Trump is being blocked from hearing contrarian views such as those of Steele and McKinney, on what he needs to do to win the Mother of All Landslides.
- Incumbency: The sitting president is running for re-election. True. “Doesn’t look like he’s stepping down.” STEELE: Trump is a genius and will unleash boom boom boom after 1 September. A whole new environment will be created in the 60 days prior to the Election.
- Third Party: There is no major third-party challenge. True. “Despite claims by Kanye West to be running, this is a two-party race.” STEELE: This is a lost opportunity for the President. If he were to sponsor #UNRIG Election Reform Act and also insist on returning the debates to the League of Women Voters while embracing inclusion of Green, Independent, and Libertarian candidates for the presidency, he would triumph.
- Short-Term Economy: The economy during the election season is not in recession. False. “The [coronavirus] pandemic has pushed the economy into recession.” STEELE: Yes and no. What has burned down is the fraud economy. The suicides, rent defaults, and unemployed are a huge non-trivial concern – but if President unleashes $100 trillion confiscated from Wall Street, cancels federal taxes, does a debt jubille, and guarantees salaries while re-training for a new job, this will change the dynamic considerable.
- Long-Term Economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms. False. “The pandemic has caused such negative GDP growth in 2020 that the key has turned false.” STEELE: Correct. And most of the helicopter money has gone to Wall Street, not Main Street. However, the President has the power to create a new localized Made in America sustainable economy almost overnight.
- Policy Change: The incumbent causes major changes in national policy. True. ”Through his tax cut, but mostly through his executive orders, Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama era.” STEELE: There is more to be done. A growing majority – including patriotic born in America blacks not to be confused with Haitian and Somali and other illegal aliens imported by Obama, and shifting. This election is about good versus evil.
- Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the campaign. False. “There has been considerable social unrest on the streets, with enough violence to threaten the social order.” STEELE: The social unrest is contrived, limited, and has not spread as was planned. The backlash is also considerable – a growing majority wants law and order with stability.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals.False.“As I predicted, Trump was impeached. Plus, he has plenty of other scandals.” STEELE: The public sees impeachment, the Russian witchhunt, and all other attacks on President Trump for what they are. Biden and Obama and the Clintons are vastly more vulnerable – along with Dick Cheney and the Zionists – for a full disclosure that the President can document and release in October.
- Foreign or Military Failure:The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. True.“We’ve had some very difficult moments with Donald Trump, but so far, true.” STEELE: This is much more important than most realize. The President has refused to start new wars and has begun drawing down troops from Afghanistan to Germany. While “playing” the neo-cons with Jerusalem and Venezuela and China, the President is actually in complete harmony with Putin and Xi – and possibly even the Supreme Leaders of Iran and North Korea.
- Foreign or Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. False.“While Trump hasn’t had any big, splashy failures, he hasn’t had any major successes either.” STEELE: This is totally incorrect. The massive success was in destroying the global supply chain dependency on China and reasserting America First, while also undermining NATO and the UN (WHO particularly). More successes are certain in near term.
- Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic. False. “Trump is a great showman, but he only appeals to a narrow slice of Americans.” STEELE: This is partly true. Trump appears to appeal to at least half of the eligible voters. He is using the Wrestlemania playbook to great effect. President Trump is not a normal charismatic politician, he is an abnormal businessman who excels at making the deal.
- Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic. True. “Biden is a decent, empathetic person, but he’s not inspirational or charismatic.” STEELE: Worse, Biden is officially senile. What will be interesting is if Colin Powell or some other charismatic Republican replaces Biden by 16 September, as my DNC source Deep Anus has stated.