Andrew Garfield: Two New Surveys Suggest Ghani Will Win the Presidency of Afghanistan

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Andrew Garfield
Andrew Garfield

June 12, 2014

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Two Surveys in Afghanistan Suggest Ghani Will Win Presidency

Both telephone and face-to-face polls favor Ghani over Abdullah in Saturday’s Election

Two surveys conducted by a polling firm that frequently works for the U.S. State Department and U.S Department of Defense, released today by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, show former World Bank official and Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani leading ex-Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah in Saturday’s election for the presidency of Afghanistan.

The face-to-face survey released today of 2,223 Afghans in six election battleground cities who say they will be voting in the runoff election this weekend shows Ghani with a slim lead of 48 to 45 percent.  It was conducted June 4 – 10 in Balkh – Mazar-e-Sharif, Heart City, Kabul City, Kandahar City, Khost and Nangahar-Jalalabad City.

A separate nationwide poll among 2,804 likely voters, released yesterday, had Ghani at 49% and Abdulla at 42%.   Although most Afghans have made up their minds, the surveys show that 7 to 9 percent still are undecided and could potentially affect the outcome.

“The election is Ghani’s to lose at this point,” said Andrew J. Garfield, whose research firm Glevum Associates USA has conducted dozens of surveys in Afghanistan and Iraq since 2008 for the U.S. military, the State Department and the Afghan national security force.

Garfield said the result could be affected by the failure of either candidate to turn out his core vote.  He also said that corruption, which was widespread in the handling of ballots in the first round of voting, is a danger in this weekend’s vote.  The surveys were conducted and made public to deter voter fraud, he said.

The full report of the two surveys can be found on the web site of the Foreign Policy Research Institute here: http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/2014/06/afghan-presidential-election-second-round-opinion-survey-findings and here. http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/2014/06/afghan-presidential-election-second-round-glevum-face-face-opinion-survey-key-findings

Garfield explained the methodology in great detail on a conference call this morning that can be heard here.

Polls open at 9 a.m. local time (12:30 a.m. EDT) in Afghanistan and close at 4 p.m. at 6,365  polling centers.   Details on the election process are available at the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan website,

http://www.iec.org.af/ .

Phi Beta Iota: Below are the two survey reports in detail (same as FPRI links above).

Afghan Election Second Ballot Telephone Survey Press Release – June 2014 Final

Afghan Election Second Round – Face-to-Face Survey Press Release – June 12th 2014

See Also:

Robert Young Pelton: Hamid Gul Endorses Abdullah — Does This Make Ghani’s Victory Certain? UPDATE Adds Poll Showing 49 to 41

Andrew Garfield: Afghan Government Indicted for Fraud – Ghani Wins Unless International Community Fails to Run Polls and Contest Massive Fraud by Abdullah and Karzai

Robert Steele: Ghani Wins by 6% or More — 5,000 Mullahs for Ghani, Karzai Frantically Trying to Deal, Abdullah Promising Millions (But Out of Cash), with Pakistan Destabilizing to Stave Off Durand Line Challenge

Robert Steele: Ghani Wins by 3% or More in Afghanistan — In Spite of Massive Fraud by Abdullah, Karzai, and Daudzai