IDEN A is not John McAfee but of equivalent substantive stature. This is the pre-Amazon calculation. The future of block chain will be known as BA and AA — before and after Amazon. It is not clear if PayPal, among others, sees the threat as well as the possibility of burying Amazon.
CYBER BLACK SWAN OVERVIEW
Memo and Excel file, below the fold.
Date of Information: 29 May 2018
1. IDEN A has provided both Impact scores (1 to 10, 10 is highest impact), and probability scores (0 to 1, 1 is certain). A combination score has been generated. Generally crypto wizards are good at impact and less good at probability, so a second step has been taken, Robert has done his own probability based on his broader network of human and online sources outside the crypto world, and a second combo score generated. The difference between the two are compared in a final step.
2. IDEN A’s Top 10 for Impact
1. Free Internet and open source cell phones connect the 50% not now on the Internet
2. Fiber optic cables and space communications both fail under various attack schemas
3. Targeted electromagnetic attack wipes out major crypto ledger, crashes crypto market
4. 20200115 Sovereign Debt Collapse as Interest Rates Spike (Martin Armstrong)
5. Alibaba cuts a deal and scales by ten times its cloud and related cryptotransaction processing
6. Apple Goldman Sachs partner on credit card, migrate toward all crypto
7. Quantum computing ends the viability of all existing prior encryption systems
8. Latin American and African remittance marketplace goes crypto
9. War in Middle East, Russia neutralizes US power, Iran fights Israel & Saudis to a draw
10. China introduces global crypto with Iran and Russia, uses to advance trade advantage
3. IDEN A’s Top 10 for Probability
1. Crackdown on cryptocurrency trading in China (Hong Kong) or South Korea (or rumors of same)
2. Major advance in physical custody services for coins, along with ease of institutional investment
3. US legalizes marijuana in every possible way
4. Makoto Takemiya Solves Scalability Issue with Credit-Card Speed Processing
5. Latin American and African remittance marketplace goes crypto
6. One major innovation hub solves interoperability and trust issues
7. US patent database hacked, all patents offered within Dark Web
8. Decisions by major funds and investors to participate or not in an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)
9. Open source hardware and materials make global high-speed mesh network a reality
10. One or more governments commit to a stable value path for “their” cyber-currency
4. IDEN A’s Top 10 for Impact Combined with Probability
1. Major advance in physical custody services for coins, along with ease of institutional investment
2. Makoto Takemiya Solves Scalability Issue with Credit-Card Speed Processing
3. Crackdown on cryptocurrency trading in China (Hong Kong) or South Korea (or rumors of same)
4. Latin American and African remittance marketplace goes crypto
5. One major innovation hub solves interoperability and trust issues
6. US legalizes marijuana in every possible way
7. Free Internet and open source cell phones connect the 50% not now on the Internet
8. War in Middle East, Russia neutralizes US power, Iran fights Israel & Saudis to a draw
9. Decisions by major funds and investors to participate or not in an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)
10. Open source hardware and materials make global high-speed mesh network a reality
5. IDEN A’s “Zero Probability” Wild Cards
There is no such thing as zero probability. IDEN A should revisit these.
1. Gold-backed currency becomes world standard led by China, Russia, USA
2. Election Reform Act of 2018 mandates blockchain solutions for 100% voting
3. Trump ends federal income tax, implements transaction taxes at point of sale
4. Massive publish pushback on 5G technology and against cell towers
6. Robert’s Top 10 for IDEN A Impact with Robert’s Probability
1. Latin American and African remittance marketplace goes crypto
2. Major advance in physical custody services for coins, along with ease of institutional investment
3. Makoto Takemiya Solves Scalability Issue with Credit-Card Speed Processing
4. Crackdown on cryptocurrency trading in China (Hong Kong) or South Korea (or rumors of same)
5. PayPal offers to convert crypto both ways (point of sale and individual)
6. Secessionist movements join populist movements in upending the international order
7. Free Internet and open source cell phones connect the 50% not now on the Internet
8. 20200115 Sovereign Debt Collapse as Interest Rates Spike (Martin Armstrong)
9. Open source hardware and materials make global high-speed mesh network a reality
10. War in Middle East, Russia neutralizes US power, Iran fights Israel & Saudis to a draw
7. How to Improve This Decision-Support Tool
There are three ways to improve this decision-support tool:
a. Give Robert seven bullets for high-impact domains to keep an eye on outside of crypto
b. Ask selected others to complete the form (which will be expanded with new black swans)
c. Fund expansion of this overwatch both in English and in other key languages including Chinese, Hebrew, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese. Monitoring one language is roughly a $5K a month level of effort, the ideal would be to have a very small group of crypto mandarins collaborating in funding the overwatch.
8. What Robert Cares About
90% of crypto offerings appear to be pump and dump scams. A weekly or monthly rank order of valid offerings that 2 or more of the mandarins agree is valid would be useful for Robert to share publicly.
Crypto is not doing what Robert wants (World Brain with crypto at scale and speed applied not only to value but to forums with voting, tools for thinking and sense-making, and data distributed and not reliant on any cloud. Robert seeks contacts and angels interested in working to this larger end – a crypto ecology that destroys #GoogleGestapo (Amazon, Facebook, Google, MeetUp, Twitter, YouTube, and Wikipedia among others) – it should ideally be centered on BitTorrent and be completely open source.
Downloadable Documents:
DOC: 20180529 Crypto Black Swans Overview Memorandum 1.1
XLSX: Crypto Black Swan Spreadsheet IDEN A
After Amazon Hints from Stephen E. Arnold:
