On the left you die, on the right you live. Any questions? More below.
I am a 73 y/o practicing Physician with a strong background in Microbiology (Virology, epidemiology, bacteriology,etc) as my undergrad and grad studies prior to Med School. I wrote an article for a few of my colleagues the 1st week of January, 2020 on Covid-19. I have been proven correct on all counts. I have added eight (8) Addenda. Keep the faith, Brother Patriot. Your work is appreciated more than you realize. It's lonely, isn't it? Joel E. Colley
All: (Note: Originally Published in mid-January 2020)
A substantial part of my undergraduate and graduate studies revolved around Epidemiology, Microbiology, and thus, Virology.
Many of my Colleagues are NOT in agreement with what the media and the political parties are doing to our citizens with the “sky is falling” scenarios presented, so let’s add a modicum of rationality and logic to this discussion:
- 1. Covid19 is a Corona type virus, one of many viruses of this type. Most “colds” are caused by coronaviruses and rhinoviruses. Most cause sneezing, light fever, coughs, and possibly aches/pains. We live with them constantly, and they prefer colder temperatures and medium humidity. Summer heat and humidity (very high and very low in the Southwest) seems to limit them severely.
- Covid19 is highly infective by “airborne” transmission. We know this from 2 unpublished recent reports, one from a convention of Engineers in Europe and one from a cruise ship where persons became positive with absolutely no direct contact with an infected person. Only recirculated “air” was common to many who were infected. 99+% will recover. At the time of this writing, the USA has a total of 225 deaths from 18,500 REPORTED infections. I can assure you the actual infection number is many times that number. To compare, the HN Influenza Virus has infected >225,000 with about 23,500 reported deaths this past year!!!
- It is far too late to stop Covid19. It will work its way through the world population and become one of the many corona-type viruses with which the world population will coexist moving forward. It will likely largely “disappear” in the summer months, then reappear briefly in the late fall, then disappear again for a few years. It will be with us in the future.
- Is the covid19 an “engineered” virus? There is evidence, good evidence, to suggest this, but in this case for our purposes here, it is just a corona type virus. Corona type viruses do NOT like heat and humidity extremes. As we enter summer, we shall very likely see the reported cases subside.
Look at the map link below from Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE). It is interactive. Compare the case reports in the Northern Hemisphere (coming out of winter) to those in the Southern Hemisphere (coming out of summer). We should see our cases in the Northern Hemisphere taper off while those in the Southern Hemisphere are ramping up in the coming three months.
- How many cases of COVID19 are there? There are Many thousands more than those reported. Most persons will have a mild to sub-clinical presentation, and may mistake it for springtime allergies. Some will have high febrile episodes, reported up to 103F, but this is treatable at home and seems to pass rapidly. The treatment is generally “symptomatic” for the large majority of the population. The young man who brought the virus to Tempe, AZ from China knew he did not “feel well”, but there was a party he wanted to attend, and he did. The 20 – 30 year old crowd will not be “that sick”, and they will move through the population refusing to “sit still” in the dorms and apartments.
- Why are the elderly at risk? Those without “co-morbidities” will likely be recovering like the rest of the population. Those with immunosuppression, emphysema, asthma, and heart disease ARE at an increased risk, just as they are for any infection. Most of the Chinese deaths were in males, 65% of whom were “smokers”, and the median age of these deaths is reported to be 80 years old.
- When will we have a vaccine? It will Not happen in the near future, and it likely will not be properly cleared with adequate testing. “Shortening” the trials is a BAD idea, since most vaccines have inadequate testing now due to the legislation signed in 1986 by President Regan exempting these companies from damage lawsuits. There is every indication once one has this infection (subclinical, mild, or severe), that individual will be immune to future infections by covid19.
. 8. Should I be tested? That is a personal decision. You must realize if you test +, you will be “asked” to self-quarantine. Refuse, and you can expect a Court Order to quarantine “voluntarily”. Refuse that, and you are at odds with the legal system. Do understand the National Guard, over 2,500 of them, have been “called up” to “help out” with this event. At the moment, these soldiers are “handing out supplies”, but their rifles are close at hand to deal with potential civil “unrest” if that need manifests itself in the eyes of the Government Officials.
- Should I go to the hospital, Clinic, or Urgent care? The majority of the population, including the elderly, will not need to do this. If, however, you are “short of breath”, are immunosuppressed (cancer therapy and some treatments for chronic diseases), have a persistent elevated temperature that cannot be controlled with over the counter medicines, have heart disease, or you do not improve over a few days, definitely contact a Healthcare Professional.
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- If you are sick, please take a few days off!
Finally, do not panic. The media are out of control on this. Do use common sense and hygiene, which you should always do anyway to prevent the spread of really BAD diseases, like Hepatitis and Tb. This is a HIGHLY INFECTIVE pathogen, and it will work itself through our population.
I strongly suggest you read THE GREAT INFLUENZA by John Barry. It is an easy read! That pandemic (H1N1 Influenza) killed 50 million people worldwide, largely in the 20 – 45 year old portion of the population, leaving many orphans to be raised by the Grandparents who largely escaped the ravages of the infection. Chapter 4 will give you more virus knowledge than most Physicians possess. Here is the link:
The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History
The Johns Hopkins Covid19 interactive map is here:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Do understand these are reported cases ONLY, not total cases.. There are no reported cases in Moscow as of March 16, 2020, which is interesting and unbelievable, since the Russians and the Chinese are cooperating on many economic projects at this time. The map is interactive. It is becoming the “darling” of ABC News and Fox News.
I hope this helps you understand the virus. It will not help you understand the out of control media.
ADDENDUM 1: the media “experts” now (April 2, 2020) project a “surge” in deaths from Covid19 over the next 6 weeks to 120,000 to 150,000.
Let's use an analogy: we suffer about 40,000 vehicle wreck deaths per year. To achieve that number, we must see a certain number of wrecks from mild to severe every day. I drive 20,000 miles per year, and I “pass by” 2 -3 wrecks, minor to severe, per week. Now, to suddenly expect an increase in the vehicle crash deaths to 120,000 to 150,000 over the NEXT 6 WEEKS, we should see a marked increase in the daily vehicle accidents per day.
To achieve the projected 120,000 – 150,000 deaths in the next 6 week “surge” of Covid19 infections, we should be seeing people literally “falling over in the streets”, some just really ill and some near death. Are you seeing that in your area? We are NOT!
The media show scenes from Italian Hospitals and imply our hospitals are equally overrun. Are the hospitals in your area jammed to capacity? No, they are almost vacant! We are shown scenes from New York hospital ERs almost deserted, as are ours here in the Southwest. Where are all the lines of citizens curling around the ER testing sites?
When the excessive deaths (from Corona) do not materialize, the politicians and pundits will exclaim, “See, our pre-emptive steps have worked!” All this for a corona viral infection where 99% of those infected recover. We are being duped! Remember, all those early projections FACTORED IN SOCIAL DISTANCING in their results.
ADDENDUM 2: many have followed the IHME Covid19 Projections here
(Added April 12, 2020) https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Although this group (“IHME”) is touted to be “very respected” in this field, most of their projections were wrong by very large factors, four – six+ times wrong in some cases. Many touted these over-projections as being much less because of “social distancing”, BUT WAIT!!! The projection data had social distancing interpolated into the final published numbers…so…the far fewer numbers were obviously for other reasons, yet to be determined.
They were more accurate with DAILY death projections in some cases, but certainly not all. The point is sick people die every day, and any infection combined with underlying issues will impact that known number, so do not give them too much credit here.
Once again, this is a Coronavirus that appears to be 99+% survivable. We still do NOT know the actual incidence in the population at large, but we believe it to be many times greater than what is shown by testing only patients with symptoms. As we gain these data concerning “incidence”, all the other related projections (death rates) will likely be shown to be skewed due to a non-representative original sample size.
ADDENDUM 3: (April 15, 2020) Dr. Deborah Berx admitted 2 days ago anyone dying in the hospital who ultimately tests + for Covid-19 should be categorized as a Covid-19 death regardless of the other comorbities involved. Also the CDC has encouraged anyone dying with a pneumonia in the hospital should be classified as Covid-19. How is this helpful? We need accurate data for planning. Artificially increasing the “death rate” of Covid-19 to justify draconian “lock down” actions is deplorable.
As the more accurate incident of infection in the population data are obtained, all planning and projections will change. It is extremely likely the actual incidence of Covid-19 infection is much higher than originally reported (Coronaviruses move through the population very quickly).
A concept called “herd immunity” will take place – the sooner, the better. Locking everyone “down” delays the immunity, which will protect us far more quickly than a Bill Gates sponsored, poorly tested “vaccine” that contains items we likely do not want or need such as nanoparticles. You can read about nanoparticles on your own and decide for yourself.
ADDENDUM 4: (April 16, 2020) We are learning today the average Medicare reimbursement for a Covid-19 admission to the hospital is circa $13,000. Put that patient on a ventilator (ICU), and that reimbursement from Medicare hits the $39,000 mark. You can clearly see the incentive here is to put as many as possible in the ICU on a ventilator. Hospitals are businesses just as any other business. They WILL play to the dollars.
One “small” issue is the inflammatory reaction in the lung tissue due to the cytokine storm reaction may/may not be “helped” by the ventilator, and in some cases might be made worse, where hydroxychloroquine + Z-Pak + Oxygen alone might be better. This is an issue to consider.
ADDENDUM 5: (April 26, 2020) For those who received my original article over two months ago, I encourage you to re-read it and compare the points discussed with what you are FINALLY hearing from the self-professed government hack “experts”. The two “majors”, Drs. Fauci and Deb Berx both want to keep our economy CLOSED for several more months. This makes no sense at all, for the consequences of a ruined world are the “cure” that will be worse than the disease. A diseased economy might kill more than the Covid-19 pathogen. Fauci and Berx are both WHO supporters and close friends with Bill Gates (“you WILL take my vaccine and you WILL wear and electronic ID to prove it).
To repeat, this is a Coronavirus. There are many. We have lived with them for centuries. Once we finally have a controlled representative sampling of our population to know just what the actual incidence is, only THEN can we apply statistical methodologies to those data to determine a reasonable “death rate”. Two things are certain at this point in time:
- The death rates reported are skewed high by Dr. Berx’s own admission.
- The incidence of infection of our U S population are skewed markedly “low”, perhaps by a factor of 10, 20, or more.
This alone will bring the “death rate” far below 0.2% and likely well below 0.1%, and we should never risk people’s livelihood for that.
We do know how to handle infectious diseases; isolate and quarantine the sick, protect those at risk by quarantine if necessary, continue sanitation practices (always!!!), and carry on living. There are worse things than death.
ADDENDUM 6: (April 27, 2020) In our original discussion you were referred to the Johns Hopkins map of world infection, and we asked you to watch sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, and South America.
Here is the link again
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
We asked you to watch the continents of Africa and South America for increasing infection rates, since those geographical areas were transitioning into winter (Flu season) and we were transitioning to summer. The infection rates in those remain seemingly low stable. Why might that be so?
These areas are high incidence MALARIA zones. What drug is taken there on a routine basis? Did you guess Hydroxychloroquine? That is what they all have in common. SO…why is our main stream media avidly opposed to the use of this drug, a drug used safely in all populations and age ranges for over 60 years? This is a major indication of the “scamdemic” side of this Coronavirus infection.
There is one additional issue to consider in certain geographical areas with very purportedly high death rates, like Wuhan and Milan. Both seem to have very high 5G radiation penetrance in the cell phone markets. 5G is “military” grade cellular functioning, and we shall leave it to you to look it up for yourself, and see if you are “ready” for it.
We’ll leave you with an invitation to check in to our discussions on TWITTER covering this, and related topics you should find important. We publish on TWITTER only once, perhaps twice, a week to avoid being “noticed” and likely banned by the Twitter “gods” (@drrepublic).
Remember: United we are strong and likely can prevail; divided we shall certainly fail. Do not let the ruling elite divide us. We are one people all trying to live in harmony. WWG1WGA!!!
ADDENDUM 7: (May 4. 2020) Today we received word of a Covid-19 testing project in a large southwestern city involving 75% of the entire firefighter members. 75% of the entire group of 1250 were tested, and under 10 (exact number withheld by the City source). That means 1% 0r less of these extreme first responders who go “everywhere in the City” are infected with this “highly communicable disease”. That is less than HN Influenza. The misinformation at the Federal level appears to be continuing.
ADDENDUM 8: (July 18. 2020) At this time our governments are continuing to keep our children out of the schools, insisting on the use of “virtual classrooms”. The Europeans opened their schools over 8 weeks ago. Children there are doing very well, and most importantly, they have been shown to not be “carriers to the older at-risk population”. Children seem to be largely unaffected by this Corona virus, many not realizing they have it (also true for young adults).
That cannot be said for the HN Influenza virus. It does seem to affect children seriously. Although the death rate in children for HN Influenza is not exorbitant, it does seem to be much higher than that of the corona virus Covid-19. We do not close the schools for HN Influenza!
Even the American Pediatric Society, not bastions of conservative ideology, states our children should return to the classrooms. Virtual classrooms have a place in our society, but this has been a dismal failure for our school children.
High Surge Rates in Infections – we are definitely seeing high surge rates in some states, but we must ask “why”. The easy main stream media answer is, “…because we did not isolate the population…”, but there is likely much more involved. The lockdown of the “well population”, a first in the history of treating an infectious disease, likely had as much to do with the current surges than anything else.
There are many reasons for this, but the most obvious is the prevention of this largely survivable virus being prevented from allowing herd immunity to develop “naturally” in our population. Since Covid-19 is 99+% survivable with 80+% hardly experiencing severe symptoms, the best course of action would have been the tried and true technique of protecting (quarantining) of the obviously sick and the active protection of the obviously at risk population. It is that “simple”.
Hydroxychloroquine – the main street media immediately began to malign the use of hydroxychloroquine as soon as the President of the United States casually mentioned he was taking it prophylactically. Almost at the same moment a “study” (apparently 40 patients) appeared in a respected medical journal, “LANCET”, stating hydroxychloroquine not only was ineffective, but was potentially unsafe and could cause severe “heart issues”, not specifically correlated nor specified.
The media ignored increasingly frequent emerging data showing the opposite. Studies from France (over 200 patients), Australia, Texas (almost 300 patients), New York (+100 patients) and many other areas showed exactly the opposite findings, yet the main stream media labelled these as “anecdotal”. These results are far beyond anecdotal.
Meanwhile the original “LANCET” article was declared to be fraudulent and removed. The main street media NEVER reported that.
What follows is a graph of Countries illustrating the use of hydroxychloroquine v Case Fatality Rate.
The countries to the “left” do NOT routinely use it. Those in the “middle” use it “somewhat”, and those to the “right” use it prophylactically and early in the disease process. Look closely at the “Case Fatality Rate on the left vertical axis and judge for yourself.
Hydroxychloroquine has been in use by Medical Specialists for 60+ years. It is taken by the old, the young, the infirm, and by children. Why now has it become such a danger?
The costs to treat patients with hydroxychloroquine are minuscule (<$6.00). The costs to treat with the new anti-viral drugs are astronomical, $2,300 per dose. Which do you think Big Pharma prefers? Anthony Fauci and Deb Berx work for Big Pharma AND the Federal Government. Which do you think they prefer?
All we are asking you to do, Dear Reader, is THINK. Ask yourself the simple questions. Why is this virus, one of many Corona viruses, being politicized? Why do “they” want you to avoid a useful therapeutic agent? Why do they insist on locking down the healthy? Why do they want to destroy the “mom and pop” businesses in this country and world-wide?
