Journal: NATO Deaf to Bad News, Afghanistan Diving

08 Wild Cards
Chuck Spinney Recommends

Georges Clemencueau, premier of France 1917-20, said war (WWI) is too serious a matter to be left to the generals.  Matthias Gebauer explains below why the recent Nato conference of ministers in Kabul proves that the Afghan war is too serious a matter to be left to the politicians.

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The Conference that Wasn't

NATO Diplomats Tune Out the Bad News in Afghanistan

A Commentary by Matthias Gebauer, der Spiegel, 21 July 2010

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,707689,00.html

NATO foreign ministers heard only what they wanted to hear on Tuesday in Kabul as they sought to reassure the world that withdrawal can take place in 2014. The reality, however, is quite different. And in the end, Hamid Karzai, who is already looking for ways to cement his post-NATO power, will be the beneficiary.

Journal: Israel, Left to Right, One-State Reprise

08 Wild Cards
Chuck Spinney Recommends

Another fascinating report by Jonathan Cook,  a freelance reporter based in Nazareth on the West Bank, and one of the best reporters covering the Middle East

One-State Debate Explodes Myth About Zionist Left

by Jonathan Cook, Antiwar.com, July 21, 2010

http://original.antiwar.com/cook/2010/07/20/one-state-debate-explodes-myth/

A version of this article originally appeared in The National, published in Abu Dhabi.

A fascinating debate is entering Israel’s political mainstream on a once-taboo subject: the establishment of a single state as a resolution of the conflict, one in which Jews and Palestinians might potentially live as equal citizens. Surprisingly, those advocating such a solution are to be found chiefly on Israel’s political Right.

The debate, which challenges the current orthodoxy of a two-state future, is rapidly exploding traditional conceptions about the Zionist Right and Left.

FULL STORY ONLINE

Phi Beta Iota: The continued atrocities against the Palestinians disqualify any Israeli government from being considered morally, intellectually, or practically capable of a one-state solution.  The Arab states are equally corrupt on all fronts.  The Middle East needs a mix of tribal boundary restorations, Jerusalem as an international city, a regional water authority, and a fifty-year international protectorate that can raise two generations to live in peace.

Secrecy News: Costs of Major US Wars, Contractors in Iraq & AF, Drones & Homeland Sec

04 Inter-State Conflict, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, Budgets & Funding, Commerce, Corporations, Government, Intelligence (government), Military, Money, Banks & Concentrated Wealth, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, True Cost

COSTS OF MAJOR U.S. WARS COMPARED

More than a trillion dollars has been appropriated since September 11, 2001 for U.S. military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.  This makes the “war on terrorism” the most costly of any military engagement in U.S. history in absolute terms or, if correcting for inflation, the second most expensive U.S. military action after World War II.

A newly updated report from the Congressional Research Service estimated the financial costs of major U.S. wars from the American Revolution ($2.4 billion in FY 2011 dollars) to World War I ($334 billion) to World War II ($4.1 trillion) to the second Iraq war ($784 billion) and the war in Afghanistan ($321 billion).  CRS provided its estimates in current year dollars (i.e. the year they were spent) and in constant year dollars (adjusted for inflation), and as a percentage of gross domestic product.  Many caveats apply to these figures, which are spelled out in the CRS report.

In constant dollars, World War II is still the most expensive of all U.S. wars, having consumed a massive 35.8% of GDP at its height and having cost $4.1 trillion in FY2011 dollars.  See “Costs of Major U.S. Wars,” June 29, 2010.

MILITARY CONTRACTORS IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN

The Department of Defense has more contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan than it has uniformed military personnel, another newly updated report from the Congressional Research Service reminds us.

“The Department of Defense increasingly relies upon contractors to support operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, which has resulted in a DOD workforce that has 19% more contractor personnel (207,600) than uniformed personnel (175,000),” said the CRS report — which forms a timely counterpoint to this week's Washington Post “Top Secret America” series on the tremendous expansion of the intelligence bureaucracy, including the increased and often unchecked reliance on contractors.

The explosive growth in reliance on contractors naturally entails new difficulties in management and oversight.  “Some analysts believe that poor contract management has also played a role in abuses and crimes committed by certain contractors against local nationals, which may have undermined U.S. counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan,” the CRS said.  See “Department of Defense Contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan: Background and Analysis,” July 2, 2010.

And see, relatedly, “U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF): Background and Issues for Congress,” July 16, 2010.

UNMANNED AERIAL SYSTEMS AND HOMELAND SECURITY

The potential benefits and limitations of using unmanned aerial vehicles for homeland security applications were considered by the Congressional Research Service in yet another updated report.  See “Homeland Security: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Border Surveillance,” July 8, 2010.

The same set of issues was examined in a newly published master's thesis on “Integrating Department of Defense Unmanned Aerial Systems into the National Airspace Structure” by Major Scott W. Walker.

Another new master's thesis looked at the comparatively high accident rate of unmanned systems and their susceptibility to attack or disruption.  See “The Vulnerabilities of Unmanned Aircraft System Common Data Links to Electronic Attack” by Major Jaysen A. Yochim.

The “secret history” of unmanned aircraft was recounted in an informative new study published by the Air Force Association.  See “Air Force UAVs: The Secret History” by Thomas P. Ehrhard, July 2010.
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Secrecy News is written by Steven Aftergood and published by the Federation of American Scientists.

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Journal: Netanyahu, Israel, Oslo, Playing US

02 Diplomacy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 06 Genocide, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Government, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney Recommends

The attached very important report is by Jonathan Cook, a freelance resporter based in Nazareth in the occupied West Bank and one of the most intrepid reporters covering the Israel's occupation policies, is — or should be — a long overdue wakeup call to the US people, the US media, and the US government, but don't count on it.

Netanyahu admits on video he deceived US to destroy Oslo accord

Jonathan Cook, Foreign Correspondent

The National,  July 18. 2010 1:02AM UAE

http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100718/FOREIGN/707179891/1135

NAZARETH // There is one video Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, must be praying never gets posted on YouTube with English subtitles. To date, the 10-minute segment has been broadcast only in Hebrew on Israel’s Channel 10.

Its contents, however, threaten to gravely embarrass not only Mr Netanyahu but also the US administration of Barack Obama.

The film was shot, apparently without Mr Netanyahu’s knowledge, nine years ago, when the government of Ariel Sharon had started reinvading the main cities of the West Bank to crush Palestinian resistance in the early stages of the second intifada.

At the time Mr Netanyahu had taken a short break from politics but was soon to join Mr Sharon’s government as finance minister.

On a visit to a home in the settlement of Ofra in the West Bank to pay condolences to the family of a man killed in a Palestinian shooting attack, he makes a series of unguarded admissions about his first period as prime minister, from 1996 to 1999.

Seated on a sofa in the house, he tells the family that he deceived the US president of the time, Bill Clinton, into believing he was helping implement the Oslo accords, the US-sponsored peace process between Israel and the Palestinians, by making minor withdrawals from the West Bank while actually entrenching the occupation. He boasts that he thereby destroyed the Oslo process.

He dismisses the US as “easily moved to the right direction” and calls high levels of popular American support for Israel “absurd”.

FULL ARTICLE ONLINE

Journal: The Fall of Obama–30 Years in the Making

03 Economy, 08 Wild Cards

CounterPunch Diary

The Fall of Obama

By ALEXANDER COCKBURN
Counterpunch

The man who seized the White House by fomenting a mood of irrational expectation is now facing the bitter price exacted by reality. The reality is that there can be no “good” American president. It’s an impossible hand to play. Obama is close to being finished.

The nation’s first black president promised change at the precise moment when no single man, even if endowed with the communicative powers of Franklin Roosevelt, the politic mastery of Lyndon Johnson, the brazen agility of Bill Clinton, could turn the tide that has been carrying America to disaster for 30 years.

This summer many Americans are frightened. Over 100,000 of them file for bankruptcy every month. Three million homeowners face foreclosure this year. Add them to the 2.8 million who were foreclosed in 2009, Obama’s first year in office. Nearly seven million have been without jobs in the last year for six months or longer. By the time you tot up the people who have given up looking for work and the people on part-time, the total is heading toward 20 million.

Fearful people are irrational. So are racists. Obama is the target of insane charges. A hefty percentage of Americans believe that he is a socialist – a charge as ludicrous as accusing the Archbishop of Canterbury of being a closet Druid. Obama reveres the capitalist system. He admires the apex predators of Wall Street who showered his campaign treasury with millions of dollars. The frightful catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico stemmed directly from the green light he and his Secretary of the Interior, Ken Salazar, gave to BP.

It is not Obama’s fault that for 30 years America’s policy – under Reagan, both Bushes and Bill Clinton – has been to export jobs permanently to the Third World. The jobs that Americans now desperately seek are no longer here, in the homeland, and never will be. They’re in China, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Indonesia.

FULL ARTICLE ONLINE

Journal: Obama Strike Four…

08 Wild Cards

Chuck Spinney Recommends

Mr. Obama's presidency is now being defined by four intractable problems: (1) Persistent High Unemployment due to the intractable Great Recession; (2) a Financial Giveaway that protected rich Wall Street bankers at the expense of the masses who are suffering economically from the Great Recession the bankers triggered; (2) A BP Environmental Disaster that reveals the feckless incompetence of the Federal Gov't — i.e., Obama's Katrina Moment; and (4) his enthusiastic embrace and expansion of the Afghan War into the AFPAK Quagmire.


Ahmed Rashid, one of the most knowledgeable observers of the AFPAK scene (and, ironically, a proponent of the AFPAK intervention) paints a thoroughly depressing picture the nature of the AFPAK quagmire in the attached blog carried by the New York Review of Books.

Ahmed Rashid, New York Review of Books (Blogs), July 14, 2010 11:15 a.m.

The surprising and speedy crash of General Stanley McCrystal has been seen in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the wider region as just one more sign of the mess that the US and its NATO allies face in what is looking increasingly like an unwinnable conflict.

The Afghan Taliban are describing the general’s sacking as a military victory—coming as it does at the height of their summer offensive; the most hurtful rumor going around Kabul and Islamabad is that McChrystal wanted to be removed because he didn’t want to have to take responsibility for a losing war. The Taliban claimed another victory when Britain announced a week later that its troops would withdraw from Sangin, a remote and ever more deadly region of Helmand province in southern Afghanistan—although they will be replaced by US marines.

FULL ARTICLE ONLINE

NIGHTWATCH Extract: Pakistani Intelligence Service Planned Mumbai “End to End”–NSA and CIA Either Missed It, Or Blessed It…Either is Grounds for Shut-Down

03 India, 08 Wild Cards

India-Pakistan: Today, on the eve of the first talks between foreign ministers since 2008, the Indian Home Affairs Ministry announced that India has obtained evidence that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) directorate played a more significant role in the planning and execution of the November 2008 Mumbai attack than had previously been thought, according to Indian Home Secretary G. K. Pillai, Indian Express reported 14 July.

Pillai said information gathered from interrogations of David Headley, a U.S. citizen accused of helping plan the attack, indicated the ISI had planned the attack with Lashkar-e-Taiba militant Hafiz Saeed “from beginning to end.” He added that the ISI was not a peripheral player, but was controlling and coordinating the attack, and that Saeed also knew everything about the attack.

NIGHTWATCH Comment: The Indians have sprung a trap on the Pakistanis. It will be noteworthy if the talks are held at all. Every Indian acceptance of talks with Pakistan since November 2008 has been predicated on a discussion of terrorism first, specifically anti-Indian terrorism from Pakistan. Pakistan has argued for broader talks. Today, India narrowed the focus once again, while seeming to accept the Pakistani terms for more general discussions.

The Indian trap appears to be New Delhi's response to last week's Pakistani ministry of foreign affairs statement denouncing Indian “occupation” of Kashmir. The talks will go nowhere unless Pakistan agrees to deal effectively with ISI support to Pakistan-based terrorists, which is now almost beyond dispute. For India, Pakistan is a state sponsor of terrorism.

NIGHTWATCH Home

Phi Beta Iota:  The incapacity of both NSA and CIA merit emphasis.  For decades the Pakistanis have assured the USG and CIA participarly that the “radical” wing of the ISI was a “loose cannon” when it was in fact the centerpiece of Pakistani policy toward both India and the US.  They did this to keep the billion a year going, from which they skimmed half to two thirds.  CIA and NSA either did not get this, or blessed it, just as they either did not get or blessed the deliberate terrorist attack in Mumbai planned, funded, and executed by the Pakistani government.