Journal: Deja Vu in AF, Wahhabist Balkans….

08 Wild Cards

Chuck Spinney

Deja Vu in Marja

Our guiding illusions in Afghanistan

ANDREW J. BACEVICH, America Magazine: The National Catholic Weekly, 29 March 2010

In American politics, deficits have suddenly become all the rage. Throughout the presidency of George W. Bush, the federal government hemorrhaged red ink, with no one paying much attention. Upon the election of Barack Obama, however, the rules abruptly changed. As if overnight, Republicans in Congress discovered that theirs is the party of fiscal conservatism. From out of nowhere came the Tea Party movement, providing at least a pretty good imitation of people who are “mad as hell” about a government unable to manage its own affairs and careening toward bankruptcy. Although the administration’s spending plans add more than a trillion dollars each year to the national debt, President Obama himself has allowed that this might not be such a good thing—for long. In Washington the sky grows dark with deficit hawks.

But the deficits that plague the United States extend well beyond the realm of fiscal policy. At least as important is a deficit in self-awareness that makes it difficult for policymakers to learn from and avoid repeating past mistakes.  Continue reading

Saudis fund Balkan Muslims spreading hate of the West

Bojan Pancevski in Skopje, Sunday Times [UK], 28 Mar 2010

SAUDI ARABIA is pouring hundreds of millions of pounds into Islamist groups in the Balkans, some of which spread hatred of the West and recruit fighters for jihad in Afghanistan.

According to officials in Macedonia, Islamic fundamentalism threatens to destabilise the Balkans. Strict Wahhabi and Salafi factions funded by Saudi organisations are clashing with traditionally moderate local Muslim communities.

Fundamentalists have financed the construction of scores of mosques and community centres as well as handing some followers up to £225 a month. They are expected not only to grow beards but also to persuade their wives to wear the niqab, or face veil, a custom virtually unknown in the liberal Islamic tradition of the Balkans.

Continues reading

Journal: Legality of US Drones as Killing Machines . . .

08 Wild Cards, 09 Justice, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, Government, Military

Death by Drone
Berto Jongman Recommends...

U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee Hearing:

“Rise of the Drones:

Unmanned Systems and the Future of War”

Tuesday, March 23, 2010, 2:00 pm 2154 Rayburn House Office Building Written Testimony Submitted By Kenneth Anderson March 18, 2010

Journal: Israel Starts 112 New Settlements

07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards
Chuck Spinney
Yet another contemptuous snub to US “peace” efforts.  Biden ought to tell them to go to hell and turn around and fly home … but he won't, thus confirming again the our pusilanimous acquiescence to Israeli policies that hurt and humiliate the United States
Chuck

Israel OKs new settlement work despite slowdown

By AMY TEIBEL, Associated Press Writer, 8 March 2010

JERUSALEM – Israel authorized the construction of 112 new apartments in the West Bank despite a pledge to slow down settlement building, the government disclosed Monday — enraging the Palestinians just a day after they reluctantly agreed to resume peace talks.
Full Story Online
Phi Beta Iota: The time has come to crush Israeli genocide against the Palestinians and Israeli theft and waste of water from Arab aquifers.  We protest the continued use of taxpayer funds to arm and supply dictators in the Middle East and the Israeli genocide machine.  A regional water authority and a two-state solution that leaves Jerusalem as an international neutral zone wouild appear to be called for, and easily affordable if we divert the money we now waste on war to waging peace in the Middle East.  Gandhi said it best: “Palestine is to the Palestinians as France is to the French.”

Journal: C/JCS Shines on Iran-Israel

05 Iran, 08 Wild Cards, Military, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney

Mullen Wary of Israeli Attack on Iran

by Ray McGovern

Full Story Online

Phi Beta Iota: We strongly recommend McGovern's article be read in its entirety.  Key points:

1.  US has no mutual defense treaty with Israel and no order to the US military to support Israel is Constitutionally valid without a Senate validation.

2.  Israel will not get away with a USS Liberty atrocity on Admiral Mike Mullen's watch.

3.  Washington is remains a moral and intellectual cesspool with the White House lacking a strategic analytic model, intelligence (decision-support) or any clue as to how to restore democracy and prosperity in America and peace in the rest of the world.   Partisanship–uninformed partisanship–is what runs the White House today and it is NOT WORKING.

4.  C/JCS has the right idea but the wrong company–no one now working in the US national security “establishment” has the combination of brains and integrity to actually propose a strategic analytic model; a reconstruction of secret intelligence so it provides non-secret decision-support to everybody now flying deaf, dumb, and blind in the NCA; and a redirection of the Pentagon so its budget funds the four forces after next–reform can be revenue and jobs neutral!

President Obama is at a fork in the road.  He can stick with business as usual–partisanship, polling, and proxies that pay lip service to concepts like “national security,” or he can commit to creating a national strategy that gets a grip on reality and then connects means, ways, and ends to achieve a prosperous world at peace.  From where we sit, C/CJS is the only person with both the right idea and the courage to speak the truth in public.  Three immediately useful references:

2009 Perhaps We Should Have Shouted: A Twenty-Year Restrospective

2010: Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Trilogy Updated

Search: QDR “four forces after next”

See also:

Continue reading “Journal: C/JCS Shines on Iran-Israel”

Journal: USG Clears Way in AF for “Thug in a Box”

05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism
Chuck Spinney

The Obama Administration’s clear-hold-build-leave strategy in Afghanistan is crucially dependent on the Afghan’s central government’s ability to displace the Taliban with clean local governance throughout a rugged country larger than Texas, with a population of 28+ million, where the vast majority of people live in small hamlets and villages.  To this end, the combined forces clearing operation in Marjah, a poppy growing area of home to about 80,000 in southern Helmand Province, was to be a model operation.  After clearing out the Taliban and setting up a “Hold” zone (a series of positions outside of town occupied by two battalions Marines and Afghan forces to secure the area), the operation was to be followed by the cookie-cutter installation of what the commander, General Stanley McChrystal, called a “government in a box” — which to work, must be an honest government that will immediately go to work at improving the lot of the locals.

As usual, the Taliban, like all competent guerrilla forces when faced with superior firepower bugged out ahead of the combined Nato-Afghan sweep through Marjah.  Now, as Jeffrey Fleishman reports in the 7 Mar 2010 issue of the LA Times, it is beginning to look like McChrystal’s  “government in a box” will be led by a typical thuggish representative of the morally challenged Karzai clique, which has a history of plundering those they rule.  It turns out that the new leader, Abdul Zahir, a man who vowed “to bring back dignity and prosperity” to Marjah (a fertile opium growing area), stabbed his own son, was convicted of manslaughter, and served time in a German slammer.  Just the sort of man to win the hearts and minds of those he rules.

The Marjah operation is off the front pages, and recent reports indicate the next target in our new strategy is the much more formidable Pashtun city of Qandahar, with population of about a million.  But Marjah is not over.  The people of Marjah know the Taliban are lurking in the shadows, waiting to install a another shadow government, when the US inspired “government in a box” does not win their hearts and minds and the US focus of effort is elsewhere.

Chuck Spinney

New leader in Marja reportedly has violent past

The new civilian leader, installed after the Taliban was swept out of its southern Afghanistan stronghold, vowed to ‘bring back dignity.' Now reports surface about a conviction in Germany.

By Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times, March 7, 2010

Continue reading “Journal: USG Clears Way in AF for “Thug in a Box””

NIGHTWATCH: Focus on Pakistan’s 20-Year Bluff

08 Wild Cards

Note to analysts:  Analysts new to this problem need to take this aboard. Pakistani and Indian officers obey or they get cashiered, if not executed. The ability of the Pakistani security authorities to round up and arrest more than half the membership of the Quetta Shura, fled to Karachi, indicates the Shura members always were under positive surveillance and tracking by Pakistani intelligence.

The thesis that rogue officers supported the Afghan Taliban against orders is jejune and ludicrous! The Pakistan and Indian Armies do not promote individual judgment; they are not like the US or NATO armies.

Nightwatch and old hands never credited the argument that rogues in the Pakistani security services were helping the militants – Taliban or al Qaida. That is not how the Pakistan Army works.

The strategic direction in Islamabad has changed and now the Pakistani intelligence and security services are showing they knew where these thugs were all along and could have rounded them up at any time, had they received orders to do so.

Phi Beta Iota: What is truly extraordinary about the above is the reality that no one in the US intelligence community recognized or was willing to speculate that the US policymakers were being “played” by Pakistan.  Evidently we do not do offensive countersurveillance on the Pakistani ISI, and NSA evidently does not have a grip on their internal communications in languages we cannot speak, hence Pakistani ISI and military were able to bluff the US for two decades.

Original NitchWatch Report Below the Fold

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: Focus on Pakistan's 20-Year Bluff”

Journal: Suicide Bomber–CIA Cluster a Gift from God

08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, Cultural Intelligence, Government

Full Story Online

Bomber Called C.I.A. Target Gift From God

By SCOTT SHANE February 28, 2010

In a posthumously released video message, the suicide bomber who killed seven C.I.A. employees on Dec. 30 said that his original target had been his handler from Jordanian intelligence, and that an invitation to meet C.I.A. officers at a remote base in Afghanistan had been an unexpected boon.

“We planned for something but got a bigger gift, a gift from Allah, who brought us, through his accompaniment, a valuable prey: Americans, and from the C.I.A.,” said the bomber, Humam Khalil Abu Mulal al-Balawi, a Jordanian physician who carried out the attack, in a 44-minute video posted on extremist Web sites Sunday.

FOR THE RECORD: Director Panetta has either not seen (because his staff filters his incoming) or has ignored direct offers of help, including one faxed to every seventh floor fax around his personal office.

Phi Beta Iota: CIA Director Leon Panetta is in way over his head, he's not even useful to the President, much less anyone else.  He has been deceived by his own people and has no idea how many sordid details of incompetence and plain misrepresentation are being withheld from him.  CIA has too many complacent over-promoted people who don't speak a foreign language, don't really understand foreign cultures, and have gotten by for decades on scraps from the table of foreign liaison and the tried and true practice of pretending that anyone who will take money is a valuable asset–all the while ignoring open sources and keeping the analysts locked in a closet far removed from reality.  His whining about public and professional observations of “poor tradecraft” inspired a riposte on “poor management.”  A careful examination of the individuals who died would have shown that only two of them should have been there at all, the Jordanian and one case officer–analysts, especially materal women with no field or combat experience, have no business being on the front lines.  By the by, has anyone introduced secure video teleconferencing to the process of analyst-asset interaction?  CIA is once again playing the numbers game, pretending that warm bodies and mediocre meaningless reports add up to “presence.”   Slow burn, once again.

See also:

Journal: Washington Post Explains CIA Suicide in AF

Journal: CIA as Poster Child For Dull US Intelligence

Journal: CIA’s Poor Tradecraft AND Poor Management