It cost CIA $3000 to teach us the word “heuristics” also known as “rules of thumb. Attempts to leverage expert & decision support systems heuristics, encoding specificity, and cognitive mapping decision making in foreign policy ultimately failed for two reasons:
1. No over-arching authority able to force the Directorate of Operations (DO) to enter the 21st Century; and
2. Bureaucratic mind-sets all too comfortable with cut and paste slave labor instead of gold collar workers.
As best we can tell, national security productivity is no better today than it was in the 1988-1992 timeframe.
The 1976 graduate thesis has not, to the best of our knowledge, been superceeded. It could certainly be improved and updated. At the end it provides an operationalization (specification of data elements to be collected and analyzed) for each of the pre-conditions of revolution.