Subject: Re-Asserting Your Command – Eight Decisions for Monday
1. Background. The system is rigged and you were not supposed to win. You need to unrig the system if you are to survive and be effective. Syria, right now, is your Bay of Pigs moment. Both the leaders of the US secret intelligence community and the US banking community are lying to you.
2. Action This Day. I humbly offer the following eight decisions for your consideration.
Each of the below references in cited in the new monograph series, Reinventing the US Army, for the US Army’s Strategic Studies Institute (SSI); links go to the official US Army site. This list will grow over the next 30 days. Links to Human Domain graphics are included.
This brief reviews the extant literature on complex emergencies (CE); it proposes a revised definition of what constitutes a CE, to include its causes and constituent parts; it provides a framework to distinguish CE’s from other ongoing conflicts; and it provides ways to respond to them.
In the context of the Police Reform Agenda, the NIM is ‘A Model for Policing’ that ensures information is fully researched, developed and analysed to provide intelligence which enables senior managers to:
Agree that we are at a potentially historic transition point. However, the Atlantic Council lacks the strategic analytic model to make the most of its otherwise formidable brain trust. Agree on the need for a new mental map, but they chose the wrong map. See the HourGlass Strategy as an alternative (also below the line).
The report misses multiple big possibilities including the eight tribes, M4IS2, and OSE.
1. Frame second-term policies from a more strategic and long-term perspective, recognizing the magnitude of the moment and the likelihood that the United States’ actions now will have generational consequences.
Absolutely. Understanding emergent public governance trends rooted in true cost and whole system analytics, which harness the distributed intelligence of the five billion poor, not in this report.
2. Continue to emphasize what has been called “nation-building at home” as the first foreign policy priority, without neglecting its global context.
Left unsaid is the need to establish a plan, coincident with the creation of a 450-ship Navy, a long-haul Air Force, and an air-liftable Army, to close most of our military bases around the world, and bring all of our troops – and their purchasing power – home.
Global Impacts of Limited Nuclear War on Agriculture, Food Supplies, and Human Nutrition
Ira Helfand, MD International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War Physicians for Social Responsibility
Credits and Acknowledgements The publication of this briefing paper was made possible thanks to the generous financial support of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs.
Over the last several years, a number of studies have shown that a limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan would cause significant climate disruption worldwide.
Two studies published this year examine the impact on agricultural output that would result from this climate disruption. In the US, corn production would decline by an average of 10% for an entire decade, with the most severe decline, about 20% in year 5. There would be a similar decline in soybean production, with, again, the most severe loss, about 20%, in year 5.
A second study found a significant decline in Chinese middle season rice production. During the first 4 years, rice production would decline by an average of 21%; over the next 6 years the decline would average 10%.