Subject: Re-Asserting Your Command – Eight Decisions for Monday
1. Background. The system is rigged and you were not supposed to win. You need to unrig the system if you are to survive and be effective. Syria, right now, is your Bay of Pigs moment. Both the leaders of the US secret intelligence community and the US banking community are lying to you.
2. Action This Day. I humbly offer the following eight decisions for your consideration.
Each of the below references in cited in the new monograph series, Reinventing the US Army, for the US Army’s Strategic Studies Institute (SSI); links go to the official US Army site. This list will grow over the next 30 days. Links to Human Domain graphics are included.
This brief reviews the extant literature on complex emergencies (CE); it proposes a revised definition of what constitutes a CE, to include its causes and constituent parts; it provides a framework to distinguish CE’s from other ongoing conflicts; and it provides ways to respond to them.
In the context of the Police Reform Agenda, the NIM is ‘A Model for Policing’ that ensures information is fully researched, developed and analysed to provide intelligence which enables senior managers to:
Agree that we are at a potentially historic transition point. However, the Atlantic Council lacks the strategic analytic model to make the most of its otherwise formidable brain trust. Agree on the need for a new mental map, but they chose the wrong map. See the HourGlass Strategy as an alternative (also below the line).
The report misses multiple big possibilities including the eight tribes, M4IS2, and OSE.
1. Frame second-term policies from a more strategic and long-term perspective, recognizing the magnitude of the moment and the likelihood that the United States’ actions now will have generational consequences.
Absolutely. Understanding emergent public governance trends rooted in true cost and whole system analytics, which harness the distributed intelligence of the five billion poor, not in this report.
2. Continue to emphasize what has been called “nation-building at home” as the first foreign policy priority, without neglecting its global context.
Left unsaid is the need to establish a plan, coincident with the creation of a 450-ship Navy, a long-haul Air Force, and an air-liftable Army, to close most of our military bases around the world, and bring all of our troops – and their purchasing power – home.
Global Impacts of Limited Nuclear War on Agriculture, Food Supplies, and Human Nutrition
Ira Helfand, MD
International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War
Physicians for Social Responsibility
Credits and Acknowledgements
The publication of this briefing paper was made possible
thanks to the generous financial support of the Swiss Federal
Department of Foreign Affairs.
Over the last several years, a number of studies have shown that a limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan would cause significant climate disruption worldwide.
Two studies published this year examine the impact on agricultural output that would result from this climate disruption. In the US, corn production would decline by an average of 10% for an entire decade, with the most severe decline, about 20% in year 5. There would be a similar decline in soybean production, with, again, the most severe loss, about 20%, in year 5.
A second study found a significant decline in Chinese middle season rice production. During the first 4 years, rice production would decline by an average of 21%; over the next 6 years the decline would average 10%.
Here, from a Federal web site open to the public, is an unclassified summary of what the US Government considers to be the risks from certain natural and manmade threats. Recognize it for what it is: an unclassified summary.
Phi Beta Iota: An interesting effort with potential. It’s greatest failure is to avoid any consideration of national riots and armed insurrection in the face of complex inter-acting disasters that turn into catastrophes for lack of intelligence and integrity at all levels of all eight tribes, the government, military, law enforcement, and commerce especially. It’s second greatest failure is to ignore the fact that most of our problems are of our own making, and that the single fastest way to secure the USA would be to eradicate corruption and high crimes and misdemeanors now routine at the highest levels of Congress, the Executive, and as with CITIZENS UNITED, the Supreme Court. As marginally clever as this summary is, it is completely lacking in a strategic analytic model, a matrix for identifying and remediating all the preconditions of revolution, and any semblance of a “net assessment” that the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) might use to be effective –but in fairness to OMB, the White House clearly does not want OMB to be effective, just to fake the numbers and keep the theater up until after November 2012.
Level 5 : Terror has expanded to the whole population. The leaders of these societies place no limits on the means or thoroughness
with which they pursue personal or ideological goals.
Level 4 : Civil and political rights violations have expanded to large numbers of the population. Murders, disappearances, and torture are a common part of life. In spite of its generality, on this level terror affects those who interest themselves
in politics or ideas.
Level 3 : There is extensive political imprisonment, or a recent history of such imprisonment. Execution or other political murders and brutality may be common. Unlimited detention, with or without a trial, for political views is accepted.
Level 2 : There is a limited amount of imprisonment for nonviolent political activity. However, few persons are affected, torture and beatings are exceptional. Political murder is rare.
Level 1 : Countries under a secure rule of law, people are not imprisoned for their views, and torture is rare or exceptional. Political murders are extremely rare.
Phi Beta Iota: The Club of Rome considered two proposals. Limits to Growth, a top-down micro-management approach won. The losing proposal focused on educating people and assuring public buy-in to achieve implementable and sustainable reforms.
Gerard de Zeeuw introduced the term ‘Third Phase Science’ in 1997. A deliberative method which is called Dialogic Design Science (DDS; see http://dialogicdesignscience.wikispaces.com) illustrates an effective way of implementing third phase science as a means of understanding and adapting complex social situations. This presentation will explain De Zeeuw’s concept in non-specialist language and expand on the historical context of third phase science as a means of addressing contemporary needs. It shows how DDS completes Third Phase Science as an axiomatic science and makes third phase science into a valuable design methodology.
Kenneth C. Bausch, PhD, grew up in Ohio and received his BA in Philosophy from Duns Scotus College followed by four years of intensive theological studies at St. Leonard’s College. He began his professional life as a Catholic priest of the Franciscan Order and has been a pastor, a high school teacher, an inner-city organizer working with street gangs and community groups, a counselor, a social service administrator, a real estate agent, a homebuilder, a contractor, a university professor, a research director, and an organizational consultant. Ken holds an MA in