Chuck Spinney: Kosovo as Precedent for Syria — Obama Administration Disconnected from Reality and Well Over the Line

04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, Government, Idiocy, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

The Kosovo Precedent

Syria in the Crosshair

by FRANKLIN C. SPINNEY, Counterpunch, 27 August 2013

http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/08/27/syria-in-the-crosshair/

I found it truly scary to read that some high officials in the Obama Administration are so disconnected from reality that they consider the 1999 war in Kosovo to be a precedent for justifying limited cruise missile strikes in Syria.

The inestimable Diana Johnstone ably dissected the illegalities and subterfuges of the Kosovo adventure in numerous articles over the years — her latest being “US Uses Past Crimes to Legalize Future Ones” on 26 August in Counterpunch.

Today, I want to address the stupidity of the Kosovo precedent from a somewhat different angle.

Not only was the Kosovo adventure  illegal, it was also a case study in the failure of US precision strike doctrine.  One would think the Obama White House would be sensitive to this, because the reasons for the failure are again evident in the metastasizing targets lists governing the conduct of the drone wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia.

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Chuck Spinney: Blindly Against Syria, Another War

03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Idiocy, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney
Chuck Spinney

The “humanitarian” drumbeat for launching yet another Middle Eastern war against the Assad regime in Syria is increasing.  Here are three reports that may help you think about the war question:

Attachment I, Syria crisis: US signals intent to take action against Assad regime (Guardian 26 August) lays out the case for attacking Syria as enunciated by Secretary of State John Kerry.

In Attachment II, US Set to Launch ‘Iraq, The Sequel', in Syria (Ron Paul Institute, 24 August), my friend Daniel McAdams lays out an argument against intervention.

Think about the points made in these opposing views. Decide which you agree most with.

Now read Attachment III, Gangs of Latakia: The Militiafication of the Assad Regime (Syria Comment Blog, 24 July).

Aron Lund describes the situation in Syria, with special attention to the evolving decentralization of Assad regime into a loose confederation of pro-regime militias, with overlapping but sometimes competing agendas.  While most readers are probably familiar with the confused nature of the competing rebel militias, the militiaization of the Assad regime and what it means for his ability to control events (like the employment of chemical weapons)is not well understood and almost never discussed in the mainstream media.

Although I lean toward McAdams argument, I submit that it does not really matter, because if Lund’s analysis is half-way close to being correct, the rational case against intervention wins hands down, for one simple reason: Questions of war or peace should not be determined by the arrogance of ignorance.

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Berto Jongman: US Framing Syria? Other Reports on Syria

03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Peace Intelligence
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

YouTube US Framing Syria

Syrian Attack By US Within 48 Hours?

Saudis offer Russia secret oil deal if it drops Syria

Readout Of Secret Talks Between Putin And Saudi Intelligence Chief

See Also (from 4th Media):

Lavrov Warns against NATO Military Action as UN Inspectors Were Targeted by Snipers

Iran Warns against Military Intervention in Syria

President Bashar al-Assad: “Syria Will Never Become a Western Puppet State”

Syria: “If US Attacks Us, We’ll Attack Israel”

NIGHTWATCH: Syria Who Done It? US Missiles Soon, Never Mind the Forensic Evidence….

03 Environmental Degradation, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Peace Intelligence

26 August 2013

Syria: Update. UN Secretary-general Ban Ki-moon said on Monday. “I just spoke to my Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament, Ms. Angela Kane, who is now in Damascus to oversee the investigation. The first day of investigation was carried out by Dr. Sellstrom and his team,” said Ban in a statement issued by his spokesperson.

“What I am told at this time is that their vehicle was attacked by an unknown sniper, but despite such very difficult circumstances, our team returned to Damascus and replaced their car and proceeded to a suburb of Damascus to carry on their investigation.”

According to the statement, during their first day of investigation, the UN experts “visited two hospitals,” “interviewed witnesses, survivors and doctors” and also “collected some samples” at the site of the latest alleged use of chemical weapons on Aug. 21 in the suburbs of Damascus.

Special comment. The question whether Syria used some form of chemical weapons against the opposition has moved beyond the domain of intelligence judgment into the domain of forensic science. Stentorian statements about blame before the facts are adduced are imprudent except as political theater. Now is the time for proof, not for bombast. It is time for patience while science does its work.

Inferences of guilt derived from judgments about how Syrian leaders should behave if they wanted to prove they did not execute a chemical attack indulge the most basic and persistent reason for US intelligence analytical failures: mirror imaging, i.e., the notion that Syrian leaders would act the way Americans might act under similar circumstances. Arabs seldom behave the way Americans behave.

The initial burden of proving an accusation always is on the party that makes the accusation. In this instance it is the Syrian opposition, whose evidence to date in the public domain falls short of establishing a prime facie case that a weapon of mass destruction was used. Something happened, but what remains to be determined.

The mainstream press has insisted that the Syrian government must prove it did not execute a chemical attack. However, elementary evidence law courses all over the world teach that it is impossible to prove a negative. Everyone knows that! Somehow the mainstream press persists in getting this entirely wrong.

The open source evidence and Feedback from Brilliant, Genuine experts on chemical warfare and its effects reinforce the NightWatch judgment that Readers should retain healthy skepticism about what took place east of Damascus on 21 August and who was responsible.

Expert feedback asserts without qualification that neurotoxins, such as Sarin, are not evident, despite the bombastic allegations of the Syrian opposition on 26 August. Feedback from experts also indicates that crowd control agents would explain the symptoms, casualties and other evidence in the public domain.

Meanwhile, Syrian government forces are continuing operations to clear the eastern suburbs of Damascus with success.

25 August 2013

Syria: Update. International news outlets predict US missile attacks against Syria. The overwhelming consensus is that Syria used chemical weapons of some sort, but the evidence in the public domain that supports this judgment is weak.

The government in Damascus has agreed to allow the UN inspection team to visit the site. The mandate of the 20-person team is to determine whether chemical weapons were used in the latest incident as well as in three others. The mandate does not include an assignment of blame.

Comment: Doctors without Borders reported 3,500 patients were treated for symptoms of chemical exposure at their three hospitals, of whom 350 or so died. The humanitarian organization did not say whom they thought was responsible.

Berto Jongman: Foreign Policy Exclusive: CIA Files Prove USA Helped Sadaam Hussein Attack Iran with Chemical Weapons

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 05 Iran, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, Corruption, DoD, Government, Idiocy, Military, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

Hypocrisy?

Exclusive: CIA Files Prove America Helped Saddam as He Gassed Iran

The U.S. knew Hussein was launching some of the worst chemical attacks in history — and still gave him a hand.

The U.S. government may be considering military action in response to chemical strikes near Damascus. But a generation ago, America's military and intelligence communities knew about and did nothing to stop a series of nerve gas attacks far more devastating than anything Syria has seen, Foreign Policy has learned.

Source: https://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2003/03/11/15814941.php
Source: https://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2003/03/11/15814941.php

In 1988, during the waning days of Iraq's war with Iran, the United States learned through satellite imagery that Iran was about to gain a major strategic advantage by exploiting a hole in Iraqi defenses. U.S. intelligence officials conveyed the location of the Iranian troops to Iraq, fully aware that Hussein's military would attack with chemical weapons, including sarin, a lethal nerve agent.

The intelligence included imagery and maps about Iranian troop movements, as well as the locations of Iranian logistics facilities and details about Iranian air defenses. The Iraqis used mustard gas and sarin prior to four major offensives in early 1988 that relied on U.S. satellite imagery, maps, and other intelligence. These attacks helped to tilt the war in Iraq's favor and bring Iran to the negotiating table, and they ensured that the Reagan administration's long-standing policy of securing an Iraqi victory would succeed. But they were also the last in a series of chemical strikes stretching back several years that the Reagan administration knew about and didn't disclose.

U.S. officials have long denied acquiescing to Iraqi chemical attacks, insisting that Hussein's government never announced he was going to use the weapons. But retired Air Force Col. Rick Francona, who was a military attaché in Baghdad during the 1988 strikes, paints a different picture.

“The Iraqis never told us that they intended to use nerve gas. They didn't have to. We already knew,” he told Foreign Policy.

Read full article (four screens, more links).

Berto Jongman: US False Flag CW for Syria, to Trigger International Intervention

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, Civil Society, Government, Military, Peace Intelligence
Berto Jongman
Berto Jongman

The theater of the macabre continues.

Multimedia presentation

Phi Beta Iota:  All our sources call into question all claims that CW has been used by anyone.  The highest probability is that the rebels are faking it hoping to lure the USA into Syria the way the USA lured Russia into Afghanistan. We tend not to believe that the USA is behind the effort, or it would have come off much more credibly (witness the Boston false flag endeavor).  Truth is a casualty across all fronts on the matter of Syria.

See Also:

Marcus Aurelius: Appraisal of Syrian Intervention Options and Costs + Syria Anti-War Meta-RECAP

Shiela Casey: Photographic Essay on False flag theater — Boston bombing involves clearly staged carnage + Boston False Flag Meta-RECAP

Marcus Aurelius: Appraisal of Syrian Intervention Options and Costs + Syria Anti-War Meta-RECAP

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, IO Deeds of War
Marcus Aurelius
Marcus Aurelius

PDF (35): 2013-08-25 Intervention in Syria

Phi Beta Iota:  Below the line is a comprehensive index to posts on Syria by 4th Media, Berto Jongman, Chuck Spinney, David Swanson, DefDog, Franklin Lamp, Gordon Duff, Graphics, John Maguire, Kevin Barrett, Marcus Aurelius, Mini-Me, Neal Rauhauser, NIGHTWATCH, Owl, Paul Craig Roberts, Review, Stuart Littlewood, and Vladimir Putin.

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