Phi Beta Iota: Tell us again why it takes ten days for a Dari translation of a captured document? This is OLD technology. 2 megapixels is not great, 4 would be safe, but the point is that there is absolutely no reason why we cannot be doing real-time Dari translations from the field, both of documents and via webcam, of on demand conversations including body-language interpretation. The lack of imagination and knowledge among those supposedly responsible for supporting our troops in the field is startling. Instead of lard-assed civilians with questionable language skills struggling to keep up with our tough-as-nails troops (the butts in seats high profit poor delivery model) engage brain and harness the distributed skills of the Earth. This is not rocket science–it just requires imagination combined with integrity.
On January 5, a blogger with the PBS’ NewsHour asked former CIA analyst Ray McGovern to respond to three questions regarding recent events involving the CIA, FBI, and the intelligence community in general
Two other old intelligence hands were asked the identical questions, queries that are typical of what radio/TV and blogger interviewers usually think to be the right ones. So there is merit in trying to answer them directly, such as they are, and then broadening the response to address some of the core problems confronting U.S. counter-terror strategies.
After drafting his answers, McGovern asked former FBI attorney/special agent Coleen Rowley, a colleague in Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) to review his responses and add her own comments at the end. The Q & A is below:
Question #1 – What lapses in the American counter terrorism apparatus made the Christmas Day bombing plot possible? Is it inevitable that certain plots will succeed?
2 – Has the new intelligence bureaucracy created after the Sept. 11th attacks functioned correctly? How could it be improved, or was it a good idea to create it?
3 – What one reform would you recommend that might improve information sharing among agencies working to prevent terrorist attacks?
Here's the bottom line:
Hold accountable those responsible.
More “reform” is the last thing we need. And, sorry, but we DO have to look back.
The most effective step would be to release the CIA Inspector General report on intelligence community performance prior to 9/11. That investigation was run, and its report was prepared, by an honest Inspector General, it turns out. (Interestingly, he retired almost a year ago and has not been replaced.)
Actually, the Inspector General report fixed blame and named names. So it was immediately suppressed by one of those named, then-Acting DCI John McLaughlin—another Tenet-clone. McLaughin’s successors as Director, Porter Goss, Michael Hayden, and now Leon Panetta followed suit.
Accountability is key. If there is no accountability, there is total freedom to screw up, and screw up royally, without any thought of possible personal consequences.
Not only is it certain that we will face more terrorist attacks, but the keystone-cops nature of recent intelligence operations …. whether in using cell phones in planning kidnappings in Italy, or in allowing suicide bombers to penetrate CIA bases in Taliban-infested eastern Afghanistan….will continue.
Phi Beta Iota: Insane is continuing to do what is not working. Stupid is continuing to do what is not working combined with throwing more money at it. The US Intelligence Community and the Department of Defense may finally be closing in on a paradigm shift that restores OUTPUTS (decision-support for the first, peace for the second) as the reason for existence, rather than INPUTS (budget share). As with Viet-Nam, it would be a lot cheaper, faster, and better to simply give the money we are spending to the individual Afghanis. The IC desperately needs a Multinational Engagement lifeboat built predominantly on open sources and methods, focused on needs assessment and satisfaction at the household level. Time for a paradigm shift. Click on the book cover to see what one man armed with pennies accomplished.
1. “Reforms” were never really implemented–this is business as usual
2. No one will be held accountable–President has no one who knows HOW to do reforms
3. This article is as close as we will get to soul searching.
1. poor mix of folks in the field, most new to the business, untrained and not using tradecraft
2. opposition has figured out that suicide bombers neutralize precision munitions, and are cheaper. this is not a war we can win, which we pointed out after 9/11 (they can spend $1 to equal every $500,000 we sepdn).
Intel Swap Is Key Vs. Afghan IEDs (But Refusing to Share)
Former commander urges better sharing
Key points:
1. Shades of Viet-Nam not sharing images of targets with pilots
2. What part of IEDs will outlast drones do we not get?
3. Legitimacy comes from meeting needs, not finding IEDs all day
International Intelligence Ethics Association (IIEA) and Georgetown University School of Continuing Studies present the 5th International Conference on the Ethics of National Security Intelligence
Phi Beta Iota: CIA, presumably with help from NGA, but not necessarily, has gotten much, much better at creating useful maps. This is truly delightful. They still don't do tribes in the classical demographic-linguistic sense, but this is a huge step forward. Bravo. Truly gratifying to see this progress.
CIA Yemen Ethno-Religious
What the world needs now is a move to four-dimensional maps and the ability to track relations and investments by and among organizations including dictatroships and their sovereign funds (e.g. Saudi Arabia) as well corporations and the “true cost” of what they offer in both stock and sale.
CIA Yemen Arable Wasteland
When combined with the Global to Local Range of Needs Table devised by the Earth Intelligence Network (EIN), this will make possible micro-giving at the household level by the one billion rich, 80% of whom do not give to charity now, and will rapidly accelerate the connectivity of the five billion poor with cell phones that do not need electrical recharging, the education of the five billion poor (with call centers and global diaspora networks that provide free education or answers “one cell call at a time“), and conequently the creation of a prosperous world at peace–the fortune really is at the base of the pyramid.
Distributing cell phones is modern Human Intelligence (HUMINT). It empowers, connects, and makes possible the rapid anonymous reporting of negative personalities that can be dealt with as a minority, as well as call network surveillance. Absent cell phones, the tribes are influenced by the story being told by those among them–something we don't do well at all. Cell phones, not drones, is how we should wage peace. Second-order quesiton: if we can revive and re-green the Dead Sea, what will it take to re-green the Yemen wasteland? Contractors have no clue how to wage peace–they are the result of a half century of government-specification cost-plus military procurement. What DoD and Whole of Government need now is Tony Zinni's National Monitoring and Planning Center (NMPC) along with a robust DoD Open Source Intelligence OSINT) program that is pro-active and comes with a global network able to do 183 languages on demand.
