Journal: Who’s Better for the U.S. Economy? Democrats or Republicans? A Second Look

03 Economy
Chuck Spinney Recommends...

Last November, I distributed a blaster that compared changes in the debt burdens to Presidential administrations from Harry Truman to George W. Bush.  For readers who missed it, James Fallows of the Atlantic Magazine picked it up and published it here.  At the time, its stark pattern generated considerable interest and criticism, but I suggested that assigning responsibility for was a complex issue and that this chart was only a “first cut.”  Attached herewith is an analysis that could be considered a “second cut” into the general question of whether Democrats or Republicans are better for the economy.  Like my table on changing debt burdens, this “2nd cut” is by no means a definitive answer to the general question of what politics are more responsible for our current economic mess, but it is also interesting in its starkness of patterns.

The author must remain anonymous, because he is an apolitical career civil servant in the Senior Executive Service (SES) of the US government.  I can say that he was hired during a Republican Administration.  He is  relatively conservative (probably center right and certainly not a partisan member of the so-called left). He is not an economist, but has a PhD in a hard science; he is extremely well read; and I have long had enormous respect for his wide-ranging curiosity.

The attached analysis has three tables which may not convey in some email systems; therefore, for those readers having I am attaching this report in pdf format and MS Word format for those of you who have trouble reading this.

Chuck Spinney

The US Economy: Are Republicans or Democrats Better?

by SES X

PDF Report

Conclusion:

Continue reading “Journal: Who’s Better for the U.S. Economy? Democrats or Republicans? A Second Look”

Who’s Who in Cyber-Intelligence: Robert Garigue

Alpha E-H, Cyber-Intelligence

Dr. Robert Garigue passed away 10 January 2007 at the age of 55.  He was the only person we knew then or know of today that was deliberately and completely integrating belief systems, knowledge, information, data, security, and technology as a single cyberspace.

He rose to early prominence and global respect among the information security and information warfare professionals who understood in the early 1990’s that cyber-space was becoming a rat’s nest of unmanageable and very vulnerable combinations of kludge hardware and sofware with built-in vulnerabilities–500 of them found by the National Security Agency (NSA) in just one year of checking shrink-wrapped products coming across the loading dock (1992).

He emerged as a leader from within the Canadian military, where as a Lieutenant Commander in the Royal Navy of Canada he quickly became the leading specialist in this field, an advisor to flag officers and policy leaders.  After retirement he went on to become one of the leading proponents for deep broad cyber-security across the Canadian financial system.  As Vice President for Information Integrity and Chief Security Executive for Bell Canada, and as Chief Information Security Officer for the Bank of Montreal, he led the way in striving to recognize information security as a guarantor of truth & trust that enabled multinational information-sharing and sense-making, not as a series of Maginot Lines destroying both internal productivity and external effect.

Principal Works:

2006: Technical Preface by Robert Garigue from Information Operations – All Information, All Languages, All the Time

Robert Garigue on Advanced Information Operations

Robert Garigue: The New Information Security Agenda–Managing the Emerging Semantic Risks

Robert Garigue: The Evolving Role of the Chief Information Security Officer within the new structures of Information Systems

Gunnar Peterson on Robert Garigue’s Last Briefing

Robert Garigue: Early Work on Information Warfare (1995)

Robert Garigue: Carleton University Research Page

Graphics:

Continue reading “Who’s Who in Cyber-Intelligence: Robert Garigue”

Journal: Life in Industrial-Era Cyber-space–a Snap-Shot

Methods & Process
Seth Godin Home

Sadly stuck with the status quo

JetBlue is ordinarily smart with their web site, which is why their broken system is particularly useful to take a look at. I’m guessing that at some point, management said, “it’s good enough,” and moved on to more pressing issues. And then, of course, it stays good enough, frozen in time, ignored, and annoying.

The problem with letting your web forms become annoying is that in terms of time spent interacting with your brand, they’re way up on the list. If someone is spending a minute or two or three or four cursing you out from their desk, it’s not going to be easily fixed with some clever advertising.

Here’s an illustrated guide to things to avoid, JetBlue style:

Click here to read full illustrated catalogue of break-downs ending with session time-out.

Phi Beta Iota: Now imagine doing this 80 times, one time for each intelligence community database, each built by the lowest  bidder to statements of work written by individuals that were never meant to be web czars, all immune from any kind of coherence and all largely ignorant of both collection biases and analytic tradecraft.  See Robert Garigue for why this defeats the entire point of online access.

NIGHTWATCH Extracts: Self-Delusions About AF-PK

08 Wild Cards, Officers Call

Afghanistan: A Coalition officer told the US press today that “There is no practical way to secure the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and the U.S. military will fight insurgents outside Afghan villages where they are vulnerable.” The officer remarked that securing the border would take an inordinate amount of resources and would require more cooperation from tribes inside Pakistan.

NIGHTWATCH Comment: NightWatch Readers should understand that the fight in Afghanistan primarily is waged by Afghan Pashtun fighters who live in Afghanistan and hate foreigners, especially from Christian nations. The data show that Pakistan is important as the channel for logistic support to the Afghan fighters. Pakistan is not a recruitment base for anti-government fighters in Afghanistan and not a winter refuge.

The Afghan Pashtuns fight where they live. They get ammunition and supplies from Pakistan. They do not spend the winter in Pakistan, which well informed Readers and old hands recognize as complete nonsense.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH Extracts: Self-Delusions About AF-PK”

Journal: Aid Groups Question US Claims on Taliban Set-Backs

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, Corruption
DefDog Recommends...

KABUL, Afghanistan — Citing evidence that Taliban insurgents have expanded their reach across Afghanistan, aid groups and security analysts in the country are challenging as misleading the Obama administration’s recent claim that insurgents now control less territory than they did a year ago.

“Absolutely, without any reservation, it is our opinion that the situation is a lot more insecure this year than it was last year,” said Nic Lee, the director of the Afghanistan NGO Safety Office, an independent organization that analyzes security dangers for aid groups.

Read rest of article….

Tom Atlee Sends: 10 Hopeful, 5 Overlooked Stories

11 Society, Civil Society, Collective Intelligence

5 Overlooked Stories (CSM)

1. Stuxnet
2. TARP is Cheap
3. Common School Standards
4. Rise of Natural Gas
5. Twilight of the Desktop

20 Hopeful Stories (YES! Magazine)

1.    Climate Crisis Response Takes a New Direction
2.    Wikileaks Lifts the Veil
3.    Momentum is Building for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons
4.    Resilience is the New Watchword
5.    Health Care—Still in Play
6.    Corporate Power Challenged
7.    A local economy movement is taking off
8.    Cooperatives Make a Comeback.
9.    A Turn Away from Homophobia
10.   Social Movements Still Our Best Hope

Full details below the line

Continue reading “Tom Atlee Sends: 10 Hopeful, 5 Overlooked Stories”

2011 OSINT Discovery Toolkit–Reuser’s Repertorium

Blog Wisdom, Book Lists, Briefings (Core), Fact Sheets, Handbook Elements, Historic Contributions, IO Multinational, Methods & Process, Tools, White Papers

This is THE toolbox, available in both long and short versions, we recommend you start with the long and then rapidly migrate to the short.  Arno is THE “dean” of OSINT for government, and the “dean” of the advanced librarian discovery movement.

LONG VERSION

SHORT VERSION

We strongly endorse Arno Reuser as an individual, and recommend his training offerings available directly from him.  By-pass the external vendor training link at the Repertorium and send him a direct email.

Arno’s Profile

Worth a Look: Arno Reuser OSINT Wizard

Journal: Seriously Weird, & Then There Is Arno

When InterNET is InterNOT

2006 Reuser (NL) on Virtual Open Source Agency

2003 Reuser (NL) on Intelligence Librarian Tradecraft

Journal: Librarians and The Accessibility Paradox

Journal: Analysis of STUXNET, Iran, and US Vulnerability

Civil Society, Collective Intelligence, Commerce, Commercial Intelligence, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Law Enforcement
Berto Jongman Recommends...

David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Christina Walrond

22 December 2010, Preliminary Assessment

Did Stuxnet Take Out 1,000 Centrifuges at the Natanz Enrichment Plant?

10 pages

Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS)

Phi Beta Iota: US Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) computer systems are still on the Internet and still very vulnerable to internal and external interference, as well as the standard 50% “errors and omissions” that come with sloppy computer work so characteristic of US vendors.  Many sounded the alarm in 1990 (Winn Schwartau, Peter Black) through 1994 (Robert Steele, various field grade officers at the Air War College) but no one wanted to listen.  The US is as close to a complex melt-down (political-legal, socio-economic, ideo-cultural, techno-demographic, natural-geographic) as we have witnessed in our lifetime.

See Also:

1998 TAKEDOWN: Targets, Tools, & Technocracy

1995 Military Perspective on Information Warfare: Apocalypse Now

Although other papers have been written since then, the three “originals” in the author’s view are Major Gerald R. Hust, “Taking Down Telecommunications”, School of Advanced Airpower Studies, 1993); Major Thomas E. Griffith, Jr., “Strategic Attack of National Electrical Systems”, School of Advanced Airpower Studies, 1994; and H. D. Arnold, J. Hukill, and A. Cameron of the Department of the Air Force, “Targeting Financial Systems as Centers of Gravity: ‘Low Intensity’ to ‘No Intensity’ Conflict”, in Defense Analysis (Volume 10 Number 2, pages 181-208), 1994.

Journal: US Corporations Growing Outside US, No Jobs In US

03 Economy, 07 Other Atrocities, 11 Society, Civil Society, Commerce, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government
Chuck Spinney Recommends...

I received this email from a close friend, a Republican of the old school:

“When 50+ years ago Engine Charlie Wilson said what’s good for General Motors is good for America, he was mostly right. Now corporations have turned that aphorism on its head.”

Tuesday, Dec 28, 2010 08:03 ET

Where are the jobs? Overseas, of course

American consumers have little to do with the big profits many top American corporations are now racking up

By PALLAVI GOGOI, Associated Press

Corporate profits are up. Stock prices are up. So why isn’t anyone hiring?

Actually, many American companies are — just maybe not in your town. They’re hiring overseas, where sales are surging and the pipeline of orders is fat.

EXTRACT: Harvard Business School Dean Nitin Nohria worries that the trend could be dangerous. In an article in the November issue of the Harvard Business Review, he says that if U.S. businesses keep prospering while Americans are struggling, business leaders will lose legitimacy in society. He exhorted business leaders to find a way to link growth with job creation at home.

Other economists, like Columbia University’s Sachs, say multinational corporations have no choice, especially now that the quality of the global work force has improved. Sachs points out that the U.S. is falling in most global rankings for higher education while others are rising.

“We are not fulfilling the educational needs of our young people,” says Sachs. “In a globalized world, there are serious consequences to that.”

Read complete article at Salon.com….

See Also:

Reference: 2011 Brave New Dystopia

Search: US fraud tri-fecta

Journal: Special Forces, Gay Men, and Co-Ed Showers

Cultural Intelligence, Military
Marcus Aurelius Recommends

Army invited attention to following article in this morning’s daily “Stand-To” e-mail.

Special forces wary of ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ repeal

By Rowan Scarborough

The Washington Times

6:39 p.m., Monday, December 27, 2010

Read full article…

EXTRACT: The working group’s report contained this observation: “These survey results reveal to us a misperception that a gay man does not ‘fit’ the image of a good warfighter – a misperception that is almost completely erased when a gay service member is allowed to prove himself alongside fellow warfighters.

“Anecdotally, we heard much the same. As one special-operations force warfighter told us, ‘We have a gay guy [in the unit]. He’s big, he’s mean, and he kills lots of bad guys. No one cared that he was gay.’ ”

Said Adm. Worthington: “It just depends on how they comport themselves. If they start breaking out the bows and the earrings in the barracks, that might cause a little trouble. That becomes a good order and discipline sort of thing. The services are going to have to tighten up on regulations.”

Worth a Look: Communications, Communities, & Modalities

About the Idea, Advanced Cyber/IO, Collaboration Zones, Communities of Practice, Ethics, IO Sense-Making, Methods & Process, Policies, Threats
Tom Atlee at Phi Beta Iota

Seven years ago Tom Atlee, our mentor on collective intelligence and community self-organization for resilience and sustainability, began focusing on “ways of communicating.”  Responding to a recent query from us about alternatives to partisan politics or dictatorships, he offered up the below links, each of which has many other links, as food for reflection.

1.  Designing Multi-Process Public Participation Programs

2. A map of Community Intelligence and some of its important constituents

3.  Approaches to Community Engagement and the Generation of Community Wisdom

The latter offers a 1-paragraph description of each of almost 50 processes).

And, of course, there is Tree Bressen et al

4. A Pattern Language for Group Process

Below is a general commentary he offered on “modalities” as a mixed bag.

Continue reading “Worth a Look: Communications, Communities, & Modalities”