This Eric Garland is on the Phi Beta Iota wavelength — I clearly see where the threats and developments he is most concerned about segue very closely to your own. Additionally, his analyses are very grounded — and although I am not a CI-professional myself, having served as a government intelligence professional for the whole of my career, I can confidently say that his analytic approach and reasoned insights represent the best-in-class in intelligence analysis, something I have rarely — if ever — observed while serving in the public sector (to our shame).
His sarcastic and somewhat sardonic delivery of these so-called “tips” are entertaining, educational, and unfortunately all-too disturbingly accurate in their portrayal of the decision making process (if you could even call it that) of our senior leadership.
WORLD FAMOUS FUTUROLOGICAL PREDICTOLOGIST Dr. P. Hughes Egon, who shows us 25 “sure-fire” ways to “predict the future and win” (while in reaiity, these are traps to avoid):
Below the line Codeword OSCAR SIERRA. The US Air Force will put you in JAIL if you dare to click and read….
- Listen to major media exclusively
- Put internal politics above external data
- Underestimate new competition and fringe players
- Plan based on a single scenario
- Let fake numbers trump real insights
- Focus uniquely on positive information; punish those who are negative
- Ridicule, ridicule, ridicule!
- Value the probability of forecasts by the charisma of the person delivering them
- Compare the current moment to the 1980s
- Wait for complete information before concluding, deciding and acting
- Rely on technology and business, ignore culture, society, philosophy
- Say you’re looking out 20 years but study today instead
- Take all of your sources from one country, preferably your own
- Don’t waste time thinking about individuals or small groups
- Take it personally! Make sure your ego is the star of all visions of the future
- Never make comparisons to history! Those jerks didn’t even have computers!
- Don’t invite young people, poor people, artists, or any diverse opinions to the table
- Start with the conclusions in mind, and push all information toward them
- Keep the findings of the study secret – don’t try to make the findings available throughout the organization
- Assume that future generations will share your values, biases, superstitions, and desires
- Confuse sexy with important
- Never suggest the whole model may be changing
- Communicate the future in the most abstract, jargony, ignorable language
- Take it personally when your colleagues don’t immediately believe your view of the future
- Make sure this kind of analysis is a once every decade event
If you want to have a good laugh about what happens when intelligence goes wrong, download a sample introduction and chapter for free. Or, if you’re really interested in all 25 tips, the electronic (PDF) version of the book went on sale today.