John Robb: Failure of the Global System Soon?

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John Robb

JOURNAL: Early Failure of the Global System

It’s impossible to fully measure the impact of disruptive attack on a complex system until it actually plays out.  Why?  There might be hidden negative or positive feedback loops in the system that either dampen or accelerate the initial damage of the disruptive attack.  That’s the problem with the fight in the US Congress over the debt ceiling.  The system that is being upset is soooo complex that we don’t have a clue what the damage will be or how much damage has already been done until it plays out.

What we do know is that the financial and economic system that is being disrupted is extremely leveraged.  Further, the entire global economy is entirely dependent on massive deficit spending just to avoid another collapse.  Which means that nearly any disruption can result in damage far in excess of the original attack.  It is also tightly coupled on a global level.  This means that any event in Washington can quickly spread to the rest of world in seconds.   The best analogy I can think of at the moment is a pilot of an F-16 trying to rewire his cockpit’s instrumentation while in a high G turn to evade a bogey on his six.  Needless to say, it’s unlikely to end well.

The only silver lining I can take from this is that all of the factors causing a slow unwind of the current system have the potential of being accelerated.  That’s good?  Yes, if only for one reason.  We’re not as bad off as we would be in a couple of years if this current trajectory continued.  The problems would only be worse and our ability to recover from them less.

Regardless, take this opportunity to really think about how you can make a living and protect your family in a full blown global economic depression with all of its negative consequences.  A six month stockpile of canned/freeze dried goods and two dozen boxes of ammo won’t get you through it.  You need a real game plan.

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