John Robb: War with Iran Very, Very Close

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Iran, 07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, Corruption, DoD, Government, IO Deeds of War, Military, Peace Intelligence
John Robb

WAR with IRAN? It's closer than you think….

Israel's hawks are VERY close to manufacturing a full scale war with Iran.  On Monday the 28th of November, it used special operations forces (referred to below as the “Hand of God”) to blow up a portion of an Iranian Nuclear facility near Isfahan (confirmed by satellite imagery).   This follows on the heels of another explosion at Tehran facility that killed an Iranian general.

What's even more worrisome is that Israeli hawks are actively claiming responsibility for this sabotage (from the Times of London):

  • Dan Meridor. the Israeli Intelligence Minister, said: “There are countries who impose economic sanctions and there are countries who act in other ways in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat.”
  • Major-General Giora Eiland, Israel's former director of national security, told Israel's army radio that the Isfahan blast was no accident. “There aren't many coincidences, and when there are so many events there is probably some sort of guiding hand, though perhaps it's the hand of God”
  • A former Israeli intelligence official cited at least two other explosions [that we haven't heard about] that have “successfully neutralised” Iranian bases associated with the Shahab-3, the medium-range missile that could be adapted to carry a nuclear warhead. “This is something everyone in the West wanted to see happen,” he added.

Ok, let's put this into perspective:

  1. These claims are blood in the water.  Israel's hawks see Iran as an existential threat to Israel.  They WANT a war with Iran.  This is an attempt to make that war happen.
  2. The US, from President Obama on down, are incapable of reigning Israel in.  Israeli hawks are now operating open loop (without restraint).
  3. Iran's anger at these attacks, demonstrated by an attack on the UK embassy in Tehran, is just the start.  Who knows what they will do next?  Iran's hawks are likely frothing at the mouth too.

What does this mean?  A war with Iran would:

  • Cause an immediate energy shock.  Oil prices shooting through $200 + a barrel.  Lost production from Iran, Iraq, and most of the monarchies.  A potential loss of  6-10 m barrels a day?
  • Global depression deepens.  Prices over $150 cause immediate recessions.  Higher than that, who knows?  Usually, a slow down in economic activity reduces demand, however with peak oil (we hit the max the world could produce a couple of years ago) and lost production from the Middle East, that price could remain high even in the face of a deep, deep economic depression.
  • Networked Resilient Communities.  Nobody is going to save you.  You need to prepare by building or moving to a resilient community that produces most of the energy and food it needs to survive.

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