NIGHTWATCH: CIA Kills Peace in Pakistan, Saudi Goes Nuclear [with Chinese Help?]

02 China, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Proliferation, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Idiocy, IO Deeds of War, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Strategy

Pakistan-Pakistani Taliban: The Pakistani Taliban rejected peace talks with the government on Thursday after electing hardline militant Mullah Fazlullah as their new leader.

Earlier this month militant sources said that the consultative Shura council of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chose Khan Said Mehsud known as Sajna as the new leader. But the election of Sajna, who leads the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan, reportedly was opposed by Taliban’s other groups. Fazlullah was reported to have strongly objected to the choice of Sajna.

Shahidullah Shahid, the main spokesman for the TTP said talks with the government were a “waste of time” and the new chief Maulana Fazlullah was against them. “Holding of peace talks is not even an issue to discuss — this government has no authority, it is not a sovereign government, it is a slave, a slave of America. Holding peace talks is a waste of time.”

Fazlullah’s men shot and wounded Malala Yousafzai last year, instantly turning Malala into a global hero for the education of girls.

Comment: Fazlullah’s election does not necessarily mean that negotiations will never occur. Hardline leaders often are the only ones capable of negotiating with credibility. But that is for the future. Meanwhile, no peace talks are likely in the near term. Pakistani Pashtun savagery against Pashtun women will increase, including murder attempts against Malala in the UK.

Fazlullah’s election signifies rejection of Prime Minister Sharif’s peace overture. It also highlights a degenerative leadership pattern resulting from the US program of leadership decapitation. First, there is always someone waiting for the chance to be leader. Second, the new leaders are less experienced and wise than the men they replace. Third, the new generation of leaders is more extreme and theologically rigid than its predecessors. Finally, the new leaders tend to be unknown to intelligence relative to their predecessors. Decapitation is not a permanent solution to an insurgency or an uprising.

Saudi Arabia-Nuclear Weapons: A BBC Newsnight correspondent, Mark Urban, has written a lengthy article reviewing the circumstantial evidence that Saudi Arabia already is the first Arab country to own nuclear weapons. The backdrop of the article is the diluted US position in the Geneva talks with Iran.

The thesis is that Saudi Arabia already has made arrangements to target nuclear weapons delivered by ballistic missiles to either Tehran or Tel Aviv. The author argues that Pakistan is the likely source of Saudi nuclear warheads and would supply them rapidly on request.

Pakistani officials today strongly denied the BBC Newsnight report and its allegations.

Comment: A quick search of the Web will show that Saudi Arabia has possessed multiple batteries of Chinese CSS-2 intermediate range ballistic missiles since before the first Gulf War in August 1990. These missiles can carry nuclear warheads.

Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998 established its status as a nuclear weapons-armed state. Thus, Saudi Arabia possessed nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in operational units at least eight years before Pakistan detonated a nuclear device in Pakistan.

Since then, multiple sources have reported that Pakistan consistently has refused to sell or otherwise provide nuclear warheads to Saudi Arabia. No sources suggest that Pakistan’s position has changed. Pakistani warheads would not fit Saudi Arabia’s Chinese-supplied missiles without significant modifications. That is a point the Newsnight article does not address.

China’s position on selling missiles and a missile-launching infrastructure to Saudi Arabia is well established, as demonstrated in the Newsnight article. Multiple open sources also report that in 2003 China sold CSS-5 ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia to replace the CSS-2s.

What is not known is whether China would also sell to Saudi Arabia or otherwise make available nuclear warheads for the CSS-5 which is a nuclear-capable ballistic missile. What is known is that Pakistan does not have CSS-5 missiles and that China makes warheads that fit the CSS-5, but Pakistan does not.

In summary, NightWatch considers Pakistan’s denials more credible than the circumstantial argument that the Newsnight article assembles. On technical grounds, more credible is the hypothesis that China would be willing to sell or make available nuclear warheads for Chinese missiles under extreme conditions in return for Saudi oil.

Nevertheless, the Newsnight article appears to be credible in its thesis that Saudi Arabia is the first Arab country to own nuclear weapons, even though they might not be stored in Saudi Arabia.

Financial Liberty at Risk-728x90

Opt in for free daily update from this free blog. Separately The Steele Report ($11/mo) offers weekly text report and live webinar exclusive to paid subscribers, who can also ask questions of Robert. Or donate to ask questions directly of Robert.