I came across the attached sample from a recently published e-book, highlighted on a Competitive Intelligence (CI) blog I regularly follow.
This Eric Garland is on the Phi Beta Iota wavelength — I clearly see where the threats and developments he is most concerned about segue very closely to your own. Additionally, his analyses are very grounded — and although I am not a CI-professional myself, having served as a government intelligence professional for the whole of my career, I can confidently say that his analytic approach and reasoned insights represent the best-in-class in intelligence analysis, something I have rarely — if ever — observed while serving in the public sector (to our shame).
His sarcastic and somewhat sardonic delivery of these so-called “tips” are entertaining, educational, and unfortunately all-too disturbingly accurate in their portrayal of the decision making process (if you could even call it that) of our senior leadership.
![cover how to predict](http://phibetaiota.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/cover-how-to-predict.png)
WORLD FAMOUS FUTUROLOGICAL PREDICTOLOGIST Dr. P. Hughes Egon, who shows us 25 “sure-fire” ways to “predict the future and win” (while in reaiity, these are traps to avoid):
Below the line Codeword OSCAR SIERRA. The US Air Force will put you in JAIL if you dare to click and read….
- Listen to major media exclusively
- Put internal politics above external data
- Underestimate new competition and fringe players
- Plan based on a single scenario
- Let fake numbers trump real insights
- Focus uniquely on positive information; punish those who are negative
- Ridicule, ridicule, ridicule!
- Value the probability of forecasts by the charisma of the person delivering them
- Compare the current moment to the 1980s
- Wait for complete information before concluding, deciding and acting
- Rely on technology and business, ignore culture, society, philosophy
- Say you’re looking out 20 years but study today instead
- Take all of your sources from one country, preferably your own
- Don’t waste time thinking about individuals or small groups
- Take it personally! Make sure your ego is the star of all visions of the future
- Never make comparisons to history! Those jerks didn’t even have computers!
- Don’t invite young people, poor people, artists, or any diverse opinions to the table
- Start with the conclusions in mind, and push all information toward them
- Keep the findings of the study secret – don’t try to make the findings available throughout the organization
- Assume that future generations will share your values, biases, superstitions, and desires
- Confuse sexy with important
- Never suggest the whole model may be changing
- Communicate the future in the most abstract, jargony, ignorable language
- Take it personally when your colleagues don’t immediately believe your view of the future
- Make sure this kind of analysis is a once every decade event
If you want to have a good laugh about what happens when intelligence goes wrong, download a sample introduction and chapter for free. Or, if you're really interested in all 25 tips, the electronic (PDF) version of the book went on sale today.
http://competitiveintelligence.ning.com/forum/topics/my-new-book-how-to-predict-the