The original conceptual depictions of “competing influences” on individual decision-makers were first developed by Dr. Greg Treverton teaching the Intelligence Policy Seminar at JIF School of Government, and Jack Davis, dean of the U.S. Intelligence Community scholar-analysts. The “eight tribes” (previously seven) are original to Robert Steele. Steele's adaptation of Davis-Treverton first appeared as Figure 17 on page 53 of ON INTELLIGENCE: Spies and Secrecy in an Open World (AFCEA, 2000).
This is a 2000-2002 slide that bears on the extraordinary possibilities inherent in creating a global multinational open source information sharing and sense-making grid. The 80-20 rule really does seem to stand up under most circumstances. White Hat (Stabilization & Reconstruction, Peaceful Preventive Measures) are especially responsible to shared open source information across all boundaries.
o the left is the map we created when it was clear the USA was going to invade Iraq and blow what should have been the surgical demise of Osama Bin Laden. This slide was created for and used in the opening briefing to the SES course on national security at the Western Management Development Center, and in 19 briefings around the country to the American Committees on Foreign Relations (ACFR).
Notes: If bin Laden could have asked his maker for the most helpful possible American reaction to 9-11, he could not have done better than the Bush Administration’s ill-considered conventional military attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq. The US is now an occupying force in Iraq, and in Afghanistan it has lost control of the entire country, where under US “non-control” the opium crop has doubled, enriching all the warlords, who will be almost impossible to dislodge without resuming combat operations. We have started a six-front 100-year war.
To the right is a later version used in private briefings.