Peter W. Singer: Defense Sequestration – Facts, Fiction & Options

10 Security, Articles & Chapters, DoD
Peter W. Singer
Click on Image for Full Bio

Peter W. Singer is the director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative and a senior fellow in Foreign Policy at Brookings. Singer’s research focuses on three core issues: the future of war, current U.S. defense needs and future priorities, and the future of the U.S. defense system. Singer lectures frequently to U.S. military audiences and is the author of several books and articles, including Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century.

Editor’s Note: In the following article, which appeared as a five-part series for Time Magazine’s Battleland blog, Peter W. Singer attempts to dive deeper into the issue of sequestration and what it might really mean for U.S. military spending and power projection across the globe. A version of this article was presented at a private event at Brookings organized by the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies and the 21st Century Defense Initiative.

Separating Sequestration Facts from Fiction: Sequestration and What It Would Do for American Military Power, Asia, and the Flashpoint of Korea

PART I: The Sequestration Situation

PART II: Context Matters: Sequestration and America’s Military Spending Compared to the World

PART III: The Sequestration Story in East Asia

Part IV: Sequestration and the Korea Peninsula

Part V: Conclusions: Sequestration would be Stupid, but the Sky is not Falling

Read full article with many graphics.

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) Re-Boot

Articles & Chapters

The two below references have finally been updated and the original PDFs are now online (they were lost when site moved from Sweden and previous shortcuts were lost).

NEW:  2008 Open Source Intelligence (Strategic)  OLD:

Introduction  OSINT and Intelligence Reform  – History  – Requirements  – Collection  – Processing  – Analysis  – Covert Action  – Counterintelligence  – Accountability, Civil Liberties, and Oversight  – Strategic Warning  – Strategic Sharing  – Emerging Prospects  — Digitization  — Visualization  —  Peer-to-Peer (P2P)  OSINT and Electoral Reform  OSINT and Governance Reform  OSINT and Strategic Budgetary Reform  Notes 1-44

NEW: 2008 Open Source Intelligence (Operational)  OLD:

Executive Summary  – Definition and scope  – Open source intelligence and joint or coalition operations  – Private sector information offerings  – OSINT and the emerging future intelligence architecture of NATO  Introduction to Open Source Intelligence  – Definitions  – OSINT in context  – OSINT and information operations  – OSINT and national security  – OSINT and the larger customer base for intelligence  – OSINT and the levels of analysis  – OSINT and coalitions  – OSINT and saving the world  – OSINT as a transformative catalyst for reform  Open Sources of Information  Open Source Software and Software for Exploitation  Open Source Services  The Open Source Intelligence Cycle  Applied Open Source Intelligence  – Open source intelligence tradecraft  – Mission relevance of open source intelligence  — Missioon area applications  Conclusion  – Money Matters  — Funding trade-offs  — Contracting mistakes  — Metrics for measuring return on investment  —–Cost of secrecy  —–Relative value  —–Return on sharing  — Commercial strategy  — Budget and manning implications  – The value of sharing  References  Acronyms  Notes 1-30

See Also:

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) Starting Point

Open Source Agency Executive Access Point

Richard Wright: Eight Part Series on Disruptive Technology & Pentagon Pathologies

10 Security, Articles & Chapters, Corruption, DoD, Military, Officers Call
Richard Wright

Believe this will be in eight parts.  Worth following, one can only weep.

Disruptive Technology and Reforming the Pentagon Establishment—Part I

Disruptive Technology and Reforming the Pentagon Establishment—Part II: The Origin of MRAPs in DoD

Marcus Aurelius: British Agent, American Leak, Who’s on First?

09 Terrorism, 10 Security, Articles & Chapters, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Director of National Intelligence et al (IC), Government, IO Deeds of War
Marcus Aurelius

British secret agent was al-Qaeda mole who cracked new ‘underpants’ bomb plot

A British undercover agent infiltrated al-Qaeda, volunteered to be a suicide bomber and smuggled out the latest version of the deadly underpants bomb, it can be disclosed.

Read full article.

CIA launches inquiry into media leaks over ‘underpants’ double agent

US spy chief James Clapper has ordered an inquiry into leaks to media outlets that exposed how the CIA foiled an al-Qaeda plot using a spy who infiltrated the terror group, officials said Wednesday.

Read full article.

Phi Beta Iota:  There are three levels here.  First, it is most likely the leak came from the White House, deliberately, and the IC investigation is mostly for show–and to make the subtle point that their investigation cannot cover the White House (if we had a proper national counterintelligence capability and the FBI had integrity, this would not be happening).  Second, as we found in Central America and elsewhere, the White House runs its own intelligence and covert action operations without regard to the secret intelligence chain of command, and we have no doubt that John Brennan is playing a double game (pun intended).  Third and last, if this is real, and we are inclined to think that it is not, it should be said that the British can be very very good, and the UK has the most target-rich environment on the planet for recruiting penetrations — it also has the most extremist penetrations of legitimate groups.  Just as the Soviets nailed every recruited emigree sent back in after WWII, we suspect that the extremists have a better grip on their own community than the Brits do.  In terms of evaluating the integrity of the British, we remind one and all that they supported the White House on all the lies about Iraq, and even went so low as to plagarize an unclassified paper from the Moneterey Institute of International Relations (MIIR), a desperate move made necessary in their eyes because they had no secret sources and had no real knowledge.  On balance, this smells.

See Also:

DefDog: CIA Claims Double-Agent, New Set of Explosive Underpants

Mini-Me: Agents of Religion – Religion of Agents

07 Other Atrocities, 09 Justice, 09 Terrorism, 10 Security, 10 Transnational Crime, Articles & Chapters, Commercial Intelligence, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Intelligence (government)
Who? Mini-Me?



Zhyldyz Oskonbaeva (RIEAS Senior Advisor & Eurasian Liaison)

NEWSLETTER Issue #5 – May 2012 (Mediterranean Council for Intelligence Studies)

The more followers you have, the stronger is their belief in you. The more believers you have, the greater your chances of getting elected. With both you can rule the nation. The difference between the two is that believers will fight for their cause. This forms the basis for real power (From author).

The influence of religion is such that power, order and government perceive their effects as a stabilizer on society as well as the legitimation of their rule. Depending on the history, the state depends on a society that is moral, consistent and trusting in their institutions.  As decision makers, real power ensures that their decisions will be both supported and followed by society. From the very beginning of society, religious institutions fought for “believers-parishioners.” As a result, politics borrows from religion in that it is a secularization of bureaucratic competencies formally entrusted to an absolute ruler ‘personally’ chosen by a supreme being and counseled by his representative on earth – embodied as the senior religious leader.  Sometimes this symbiotic relationship is equal, sometimes dependent upon the other but always it is both visual and implied.  What both understand is that power is expressed in numbers which is something they both need.

This analysis is a series of articles consisting of historical and contemporary facts in order to examine this relationship in more detail.  By minimizing editorial comment and without bias to any particular religion, the intent to explore a dimension that remains largely underexplored in modern scholarship.  In other words if intelligence professionals are dedicated patriots above the norm then what effect does religion play in the composition of their national identity and their duties in serving the state?

Continue reading “Mini-Me: Agents of Religion – Religion of Agents”

DefDog: Bruce Hoffman, the US IC, Bin Laden…Many Contradictions

07 Other Atrocities, 09 Terrorism, Articles & Chapters, Corruption, Government, IO Deeds of War, IO Impotency, Media, Military

Bruce is bascially saying that the IC has failed completely…..which we know it has. This also supports my view that the folks who dreamed up the latest air attack are also out of touch with AQ reality. But the media has dumbed down the public enough that they believe almost anything….

The thing I find interesting is that Bruce has openly said that the IC is a failure.  He also raises some questions that would suggest bin Laden was not alive, i.e. the focus on the Arab Spring.  This does not fall into line with UBL as much as it does with Zawahiri….and his Muslim Brotherhood.

As I noted, the fact that someone with Hoffman’s stature is questioning the IC should make people pause and reflect on the state of affairs within those halls….

Bruce Hoffman: What Osama Was Thinking at the End

Bin Laden was more fearful that his men might be affected by the weather than by any effort of the Pakistani government to apprehend them.

By releasing 17 documents seized last year from Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, the U.S. government has supplied a needed corrective to the bunkum that has passed for analysis throughout the war on terrorism’s first decade.

For too long, government officials and pundits alike have made extravagant and incorrect claims about the weakness of al Qaeda and the irrelevance of its founding leader.

Continue reading “DefDog: Bruce Hoffman, the US IC, Bin Laden…Many Contradictions”

Berto Jongman: Interesting National Security Links

Articles & Chapters
Berto Jongman

C.I.A.’s Misuse of Secrecy

C-SPAN Bill Roggio Editor Long War Journal Use of Military Drones with Statistics (VIDEO)

EU Annual Report on Terrorism

Gwen Olsen – the Rx Reformer

Memories of Bin Laden are fading, but his methods and ideology remain

Senate follows House with more questions about construction of Savannah River Site’s MOX plant

Terrorism Experts Come to Zurich

“War on Terror”: One Year On

Youth Frustration Monitor – Focus on Europe

Reference: Social Media Intelligence? Or More OSINT Than Spies Can Handle?

Articles & Chapters
Source Site (Free)

The growth of social media poses a dilemma for security and law enforcement agencies. On the one hand, social media could provide a new form of intelligence – SOCMINT – that could contribute decisively to keeping the public safe. On the other, national security is dependent on public understanding and support for the measures being taken to keep us safe.

Social media challenges current conceptions about privacy, consent and personal data, and new forms of technology allow for more invisible and widespread intrusive surveillance than ever before. Furthermore, analysis of social media for intelligence purposes does not fit easily into the policy and legal frameworks that guarantee that such activity is proportionate, necessary and accountable.

This paper is the first effort to examine the ethical, legal and operational challenges involved in using social media for intelligence and insight purposes. It argues that social media should become a permanent part of the intelligence framework but that it must be based on a publicly argued, legal footing, with clarity and transparency over use, storage, purpose, regulation and accountability. #Intelligence lays out six ethical principles that can help government agencies approach these challenges and argues for major changes to the current regulatory and legal framework in the long-term, including a review of the current Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act 2000.

Tip of the Hat to Berto Jongman.

Phi Beta Iota:  Government intelligence is incompetent with what they have now.  “SOCMINT” (for Social Media Intelligence) is as silly as claiming that Document Media Exploitation (DOMEX) is a separate discipline.   Both will spawn bureaucracies and undeserved promotions along with attendant fraud, waste, and abuse.  While well intentioned, this contribution is part of the problem–doing the wrong things righter–not part of the solution.  Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) covers both of the above, and until the government can make the leap from OSINT to M4IS2 (Multinational, Multiagency, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information-Sharing and Sense-Making) it is by no means ready to muck about within Social Media.  We are quite certain that social media intelligence is emergent, and it will emerge faster, better, cheaper (if not free) than any government bureaucracy could possibly fund, imagine, or execute in several decades.

John Robb: Techcrunch Interview on Resilient Communities (Be Happy)

Articles & Chapters, Blog Wisdom, Civil Society, Counter-Oppression/Counter-Dictatorship Practices, Cultural Intelligence, Earth Intelligence, Ethics, Future-Oriented, Methods & Process, Policies, Resilience
John Robb

Techcrunch Interview

Posted: 28 Apr 2012 10:15 AM PDT

I did an interview the Jon Evans at Techcrunch (the social technology hub) earlier this week.  Here it is.

I’m spending most of my time writing and editing the Resilient Communities letter (it’s free to subscribe).

As I said in the interview, the reason I started the letter was because I strongly believe that the most successful, happiest people on the planet in twenty years will be living in resilient communities.

Lots of good stuff in the RC letter —  from DiY sewage systems to how to power an entire neighborhood with solar energy.

Phi Beta Iota:  Creating resilient communities from the bottom up is what the federal government should be but is not facilitating.  We’re on our own.

See Also:

Paul and Percival Goodman, Communitas: Means of Livelihood and Ways of Life (Columbia University Press, 1990)

Kirkpatrick Sale, Human Scale (New Catalyst Books, 2007)

E. F. Schumaker, Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered (Hartley and Marks Publishers, 2000)

Berto Jongman: Interesting National Security Links

Articles & Chapters
Berto Jongman

Aon downgrades 37 countries for terrorism and political violence

CBRNE Terrorism Newsletter

Future Trends and Challenges Middle East and North Africa Toward 2030

Iran & Israel: What the West should and can do

“Targeting Top Terrorists: How Leadership Decapitation Contributes to Counterterrorism”

Think Again: Al Qaeda Obituaries Premature

U.S.’s Post-Afghanistan Counterinsurgency War: Colombia

Berto Jongman: Interesting National Security Headlines

Articles & Chapters
Berto Jongman

Book Review – Truth And Consequences: The U.S. vs. Bradley Manning

French Cyber-Strategy

GPS with Soul

Hacktivism at Risk

Integral Leadership Rosetta Stone

Kony 2012 White Savior Industrial Complex

Magnetic Pole Reversal Has Started – Will Take a Thousand Years

Malware Proliferation Estimates

PDF: Carnage Interrupted: An Analysis of Fifteen Terrorist Plots Against Public Surface Transportation

What do you want, USA? Go up or down?