Reference: US Military Aid Increases Instability

White Papers

Bike, Corey. and Donoso, Juan. “Domestic Instability and US Military Aid: Doing More Harm Than Good?” Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Town & Country Resort and Convention Center, San Diego, California, USA, Mar 22, 2006 Online <PDF>. 2010-09-10 <http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p99929_index.html>

Publication Type: Conference Paper/Unpublished Manuscript
Abstract: In this study we seek to capture a deeper relationship between US military aid and the levels of violence in the world, what we term as “instability.”

Key sentence: This confirms the notion that as conflicts arise the US acts in a manner of sending military more military assistance purportedly to lend a helping hand. But as table 1a describes, with more military assistance the US actually exacerbates the conflict.

Reference: Strategic Survey 2010 includes Afghanistan

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 09 Terrorism, Analysis, Monographs, Strategy, United Nations & NGOs
Berto Jongman Recommends...
Overview & Ordering Online

This year's survey places strong emphasis on the global nature of economic and financial vulernability, and on Afghanistan.  Below is a quote in two sections  from the official press statement releasing the survey to the public.

Strategic Survey 2010 does not seek to lay out a new comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan. It does however argue that for Western states to be pinned down militarily and psychologically in Afghanistan will not be in the service of their wider political and security interests. The challenge of Afghanistan must be viewed and addressed in proportion to the other threats to international security and the other requirements for foreign-policy investment. With economic, financial and diplomatic activity moving at such a pace and with such varied outcomes internationally, military operations in general have to be all the more carefully considered. Precision and adaptability will be essential watchwords. For heavy, large, military deployment, the longue durée will be seen as an attitude for other times, other centuries.

The Afghan campaign has involved not just mission creep but mission multiplication; narrowing the political-military engagement to core goals as described will allow for proper attention to be paid to other areas posing international terrorist risks, and indeed to other matters affecting international security.

See Also:

Search: Strategic Analytic Model

Reference: USDI Open Source Intelligence Instruction

DoD
Full 12 Pages Online

Phi Beta Iota: Also known as dodi 3115.12, august 24, 2010.  While the document displays some tiny hints that someone somewhere is thinking, it is largely bureaucratic pap that sanctifies the existing dysfunctional status quo, to include an SES as a branch chief rather than as the head of a new Department, DO, co-equal to DH and DI and DX. The only glimmer of progress is in requiring a consolidated defense program, but even this will be mangled and prolonged. This is a bean-counter instruction, not a real-world instruction intent on providing OSINT support to policy, acquisition, and operations.

See Also:

2008 IJIC 21/3 The Open Source Program: Missing in Action

Graphic: Herring Triangle of Four Levels Need & Cost

2009 DoD OSINT Leadership and Staff Briefings

2009: Human Intelligence (HUMINT) Trilogy

Search: The Future of OSINT [is M4IS2-Multinational]

Reference: Data Is the New Dirt–Visualization

Analysis, Augmented Reality, Blog Wisdom, Briefings (Core), Collective Intelligence, info-graphics/data-visualization, InfoOps (IO), IO Sense-Making, Methods & Process, Peace Intelligence
Full Short Video Brief Online

About this talk

David McCandless turns complex data sets (like worldwide military spending, media buzz, Facebook status updates) into beautiful, simple diagrams that tease out unseen patterns and connections. Good design, he suggests, is the best way to navigate information glut — and it may just change the way we see the world.

About David McCandless

David McCandless draws beautiful conclusions from complex datasets — thus revealing unexpected insights into our world. Full bio and more links

Phi Beta Iota: “Mining” the soil does not go far.  Actually planting, tilling, watering, and growing is much more powerful.  This is one of the most compelling TED briefs we have seen.  “Language of the eye” combined with “language of the mind.”  All about “relative” numbers and relationships.  “Let the data set change your mindset.”  Art of knowledge compression.  Living data in a Google document.  If you visit his books at Amazon, take the time to check out the related books on data visualization that Amazon clusters for around these.

Tip of the Hat to Magnus Hultberg at LinkedIn.  Also see these resources.

David McCandless' two books:

Amazon Page
Amazon Page

Reference: LinkedIn Selected Intelligence Groups

Blog Wisdom

LinkedIn (free to premium) seems to be reaching a new critical mass. Below are a few groups we will be following with the intent of pointing to them individually as warranted by new discussions.

Advanced Business Analytics, Data Mining and Predictive Modeling

Advanced Business Analytics, Data Mining and Predictive Modeling

Business Intelligence Group

Business Intelligence Group

Business Intelligence Professionals

Business Intelligence Professionals

Global Staffing Leaders

Global Staffing Leaders

Location Intelligence and Geospatial BI

Location Intelligence and Geospatial BI

Open Source Business Intelligence

Open Source Business Intelligence

Open Source Intelligence Gathering

Open Source Intelligence Gathering

Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP)

Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP)

The Intelligence Community (IC)

The Intelligence Community (IC)

United States Geospatial Intelligence Foundation

United States Geospatial Intelligence Foundation

Reference: From the New Middle Ages to a New Dark Age–The Decline of the State and U.S. Strategy

Monographs

Full Monograph Online

Brief Synopsis

Security and stability in the 21st century have little to do with traditional power politics, military conflict between states, and issues of grand strategy. Instead they revolve around the disruptive consequences of globalization, declining governance, inequality, urbanization, and nonstate violent actors. The author explores the implications of these issues for the United States. He proposes a rejection of “stateocentric” assumptions and an embrace of the notion of the New Middle Ages characterized, among other things, by competing structures, fragmented authority, and the rise of “no-go” zones. He also suggests that the world could tip into a New Dark Age. He identifies three major options for the United States in responding to such a development. The author argues that for interventions to have any chance of success the United States will have to move to a trans-agency approach. But even this might not be sufficient to stanch the chaos and prevent the continuing decline of the Westphalian state.