Public Intelligence Blog

Phi Beta Iota:  NIGHTWATCH is the gold standard for political-military analytics.  We doubt anyone now serving at CIA or DIA could have drafted this in one sitting without references.  Here is the key finding brought forward:

This eight-day war is, thus, a turning point because Hamas, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, has proven it can strike at the heart of Israel and still live to tell the tale. This is a breakthrough tactical development. From now on, Israel is on the defensive and the threat will get worse unless a secular revolution occurs in Iran.

Israel-Gaza Strip: The exchanges of attacks have stopped during this Watch. Hamas posted the terms of the ceasefire agreement.

-Israel will cease all its activities against the Gaza Strip in the sea, land and air, including the incursions and assassinations.

-The Palestinian organizations will cease their activity from Gaza against Israel, including the rocket fire and border attacks.

-The border crossings to Gaza will be opened, facilitating the movement of people and transfer of goods. This move will take effect after a 24-hour cooling-off period.

-Additional issues will be negotiated if necessary.

Comment:  This is not the durable peace that US officials say is the objective.  It also probably is not enforceable by Hamas authorities because they do not control smaller splinter groups that probably will not consider themselves bound. The ceasefire will last becasue the principal parties say so, but Readers should expect violations. Both sides will use the respite to rest and rearm. There will be more fighting, but not for a few weeks.

Special Comment: So what just happened? After eight days of rocket and air attacks, both sides can declare victory of a sort. That is not a good outcome for Israel. The situation is much more complicated and ominous than in many decades.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH: Analytic Overview of Eight Day Gaza Scuffle”