Phi Beta Iota: NATO training of Afghan police a failure. The inability of all NATO participants, not just the US participants, to understand the Afghan culture and train, equip, and organize accordingly, is the primary reason for the continued failure at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. Remarkably, the OSS.Net Afghanistan study is still in demand, as the only other useful document now available is the USMC culture study. Combined with the 120 day rotation cycle and the absolute naivete of those being cycled in, Afghanistan is a failure across the board.
So much for our COIN strategy. I knew it wouldn't work because it is a
hollow approach. You cannot get to the population living in reinforced
garrisons while the rank and file walk the streets. When you are all
armored up and travel through a town in vehicles whose drivers pay no
attention what is going on you will loose the support of the public….and
that is a daily occurrence in AF….
For the U.S. government, and for the 100,000 American troops fighting in
Afghanistan, the messages delivered last Friday could hardly have been
worse.
Under the weathered blue dome of Kabul's largest mosque, a distinguished
preacher, Enayatullah Balegh, pledged support for “any plan that can
defeat” foreign military forces in Afghanistan, denouncing what he called “the political power of these children of Jews.”
Across town, a firebrand imam named Habibullah was even more blunt.
“Let these jackals leave this country,” the preacher, who uses only one name, declared of foreign troops. “Let these brothers of monkeys, gorillas and pigs leave this country. The people of Afghanistan should determine their own fate.”
When I wrote of Barbara McNamara and her views of Diane Roark, I should have mentioned that she viewed Charlie Allen as intrusive as well and referred to him as a loose cannon more than once. Her quote for the 9/11 Commission interview that, “Charlie Allen brings an energy level – you never ask him to do something that you do not want done” was not meant as a compliment. Allen’s big sin like that of Diane Roark was that he refused to be duped by the technical and rhetorical smoke screens NSA throws up when confronting outsiders. Like Roark, Allen had his own sources at the Fort and had enough technical savvy to see through the evasions and deceptions with which he was often greeted. NSA found and probably still finds this unpardonable.
Phi Beta Iota: Integrity is coming back into style. If there is one thing Charlie Allen is not, it is a “loose cannon” in the pejorative sense of the word that his low-rent detractor suggests. This is the man who blew the lid off the White House on Iran-Contra. Integrity. Not just nice to have–essential.
According to a 16 February piece in the New York Times by Mark Lander, “President Obama ordered his advisers last August to produce a secret report on unrest in the Arab world, which concluded that without sweeping political changes, countries from Bahrain to Yemen were ripe for popular revolt, administration officials said Wednesday.” Participants included experts from the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), State Department and, probably, experts from outside the government. The report was classified because of its political sensitivity. Although President Obama consulted with experts from the IC, the report was produced outside of IC analysis and reporting processes.
This is actually the third such independent report that the Obama administration has asked to be produced outside of IC channels. The other two were produced under the leadership of Brookings Institute scholar and former CIA Officer, Bruce Riedel and dealt with South Asia. Riedel’s reports were produced largely from open sources and indeed were later turned into quite important books [Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America, and the Future of Global Jihad; and The Search for Al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future]. There is every reason to suspect that the August report on unrest in the Middle East was also a product of mainly open source material.
Used extensively by protesters in Egypt and Tunisia, Facebook and other social networking websites contain a wealth of useful intelligence. However, knowing how to exploit that information is another matter. During a hearing of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 4, Senator Dianne Feinstein complained to Stephanie O’Sullivan, number 2 at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, about the U.S. intelligence community’s failure to anticipate the Egyptian crisis by analysing information that was freely available on Facebook. On January 28, British MPs made the same complaint about Britain’s intelligence agencies to Gus O’Donnell, Prime Minister David Cameron’s cabinet secretary. Agencies on both sides of the Atlantic are now busy playing catch-up with the Facebook generation.
Phi Beta Iota: The tragedy of the unintelligent US Intelligence Community will not be fixed until one of two things happen: the President realizes he is being screwed; or the DNI realizes he is overlooking the ONE THING he can get right this time around. From 1988 onwards, with every Commission from Aspin-Brown onwards, each DNI has been told in no uncertain terms what needs to be done. For Jim Clapper, one of the finest thinkers we've every known, to refuse for one minute to take the simple step of asking the long-standing leaders of the OSINT movement–Steele, Markowitz, Dumaine, with Hock, Reuser, Benavides, Edwards, Bjore, and a few others completing the inner council–is difficult to comprehend.
Phi Beta Iota: The story lacks context; Powell was not duped, he knew he was lying for his party, never mind that this left his integrity in the trash can. If Curveball had not existed Dick Cheney and the Neo-Cons would have fabricated someone like him. This is a classic case of integrity failure across the board. The British, the Germans, the CIA, everyone knew this guy was a liar, but in a repeat of “reasonable dishonesty” as immortalized by Sherman Kent in talking to Sam Adams, everyone chose to let Dick Cheney get away with a massive crime against humanity and a massive crime against the American people. Integrity. Keeping your integrity matters; you pay a price in the short-run when surrounded by those without integrity, but in the long run, you honor your Oath to the Constitution and your obligations to God, country, and family. It's a challenge. See Paradigms of Failure for context–integrity is not easy. Those of us that tried to fund full-page information pages against the war and the lies supporting the war were pushed back by the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Los Angeles Times (no doubt there were many other pushbacks). America has become a cheating culture in which “anything goes” for short-term selfish gain, without regard to the long-term consequences. Groundswell, Netroots, Smart Mobs, Wise Crowds, Generation 2.0, Youth Pirates, Everybody, all are meeting huge resistance in the near-term.
