Journal: Grand Strategy, Gaza In, Israel Out

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Chuck Spinney

Linked below is a very long, but I believe critically important analysis of the blowback effects of Israel’s bloody invasion of Gaza, which began in Dec 2008 and ended days before President Obama took office.  The author, Norman Finkelstein, is the son of Holocaust survivors, and the bête noire of the worldwide Zionist establishment, especially in the United States and Israel.  He has written widely on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and the contemporary politics of the Holocaust.

“Blowback” is a term coined by historian Chalmers Johnson to describe the unintended and counterproductive grand-strategic effects of aggressive strategies.  Grand strategy can be thought of as the way in which your strategic actions:

  • Pump up your own resolve and increase your country’s internal political cohesion
  • Drain away your opponent’s resolve and weaken his political cohesion
  • Reinforce commitments of your allies to your cause and and make them more empathetic to your success
  • Attract the uncommitted to your cause and make them empathetic to your success
  • Isolate your adversary and induce his allies to stop supporting him
  • End conflicts on terms on favorable terms that do not sow the seeds of future conflicts

Continue reading “Journal: Grand Strategy, Gaza In, Israel Out”

Worth A Look: Posted from the Past Including Jack Davis on Leadership in Intelligence Analysis

Analysis, Reform

1993 War and Peace in the Age of Information–Superintendent’s Guest Lecture, Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)

1994 ACCESS: The Theory and Practice of Competitor Intelligence (Journal of the Association for Global Strategic Information, July 1994)

1994 Private Enterprise Intelligence: It’s Potential Contribution to National Security (Canada, 29 October 1994)

1995 Open Sources and the Virtual Intelligence Community (with MC&G Emphasis)

1995 The Global Information Explosion: A Threat to National Security? (National Defense University, 16 May 1995)

1997 VIRTUAL INTELLIGENCE: Conflict Avoidance and Resolution Through Information Peacekeeping (Author’s Final, 1 April 1997)

1998 Open Source Intelligence Overview (Australia)

1999 Relevant Information and All-Source Analysis: The Emerging Revolution

1999 Virtual Intelligence: Conflict Avoidance and Resolution through Information Peacekeeping (Journal of Conflict Resolution, Spring 1999)

2002  Reference: Jack Davis Leadership in Intelligence Analysis (August 2002)

Sherman Kent Occasional Papers by Jack Davis

Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Strategic Warning

Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Analysts and the Policymaking Process

Improving CIA Analytic Performance: DI Analytic Priorities

Sherman Kent and the Profession of Intelligence Analysis

Strategic Warning: If Surprise is Inevitable, What Role for Analysis?

Tensions in Analyst-Policymaker Relations: Opinions, Facts, and Evidence

Sherman Kent’s Final Thoughts on Analyst-Policymaker Relations

Handbook: Human Terrain Team Handbook (10/2008)

HUMINT, Military, Stabilization & Reconstruction
Document Online
Cryptome on HTT

Phi Beta Iota: Although we assume there must be some isolated success stories, we have not heard any.  The Human Terrain Team (HTT) is nothing more than Civil Affairs done properly, and from all accounts, from the most vicious to direct observation, HTT is a badly managed, badly conceptualized, badly staffed program that is a cancer on the good name of Civil Affairs.  The program should be terminated at the same time that the Army Civil Affairs Brigade is made OpCon to a new Stabilization & Reconstruction (S&R) Field Activity with a brigadier general in command and a ban on all lawyers and security officers–both S&R and Civil Affairs should be honest enterprises in which those in touch with the public do not need clearances.

MILNET Headlines, 3 March 2010

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Animals at War:  Bomb Dog Suffers from Stress

Bad Business:  Microsoft CEO: Google Merits Regulatory Scrutiny

Bad Government I:  Politically Correct Killing?

Bad Government II:  Obama Now Selling Judgeships for Health Care Votes

Bad Government III:  White House Land Grab

Bad Government IV:  How Reconciliation Works in Congress

Bad Judgment:  JFK tower allowed a kid to direct air traffic

Bad Law I:  Twelve Years under the DMCA

Bad Law II: Why DRM doesn’t work

Counter-Terrorism-Russia: Russia’s Terror-Fighting Trains Back on the Rails

Cyber-Security:  DoD Requires Hacker Certification

Cyber-Security:  Nation's cybersecurity suffers from a lack of information sharing

Global Inter-Dependence:  Monitoring Federal Networks, Global Supply Chain

U.S. Military Online:  Inside the Ring: Hacker Training

U.S. Military Online: ‘America’s Army’ Blurs Virtual War, Militainment

Review: Improving CIA Analytic Performance–Four Papers by Jack Davis

3 Star, Decision-Making & Decision-Support, Intelligence (Government/Secret)
Amazon Page
3.0 out of 5 stars Misappropriated without Attrribution–Free Online, March 4, 2010

One Star for lack of ethics on the part of the publisher. Beyond five stars for content, free online as with all of Jack Davis's stuff.  Upgraded to 3 stars for proper pricing (after Amazon's cut, publisher only makes roughly 3 dollars per book, which is totally fair).

This product was misappropriated from Jack Davis, dean of the intelligence analysis scholar-practitioners. While materials created within the US Government by US Government employees are generally not copyrighted because the taxpayer funded their creation, they are a) available free online; and b) generally considered off-limits to sleaze-bag publishers that troll for stuff (this happens to all of us, in my case with my monographs for the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI), all free online).

It's nice that Jack's work is respected and made available on Amazon, a truly global service.

It is very troubling that Jack Davis, who just asked me to find out who did this, has not been contacted by the publisher and offered both courtesy copies of his own work, and some modest recognition.

Continue reading “Review: Improving CIA Analytic Performance–Four Papers by Jack Davis”

Journal: The Looting of America Continues…

Uncategorized
Chuck Spinney

The MICC Moves to Hose the Taxpayer One More Time

Eisenhower's Nightmare Arrives

By FRANKLIN C. SPINNEY

In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.

Dwight D. Eisenhower,  President of the United States   Farewell Address,

17 January 1961

ELECTION 2008: Lipstick on the Pig

As I indicated in CounterPunch on 3 February 2010, the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) just released by the Obama Pentagon is a bad joke. That bad joke is about to be given the good housekeeping seal of approval by a special panel appointed jointly by the Secretary of Defense and the defense barons of the Armed Services committees in Congress. When this happens, rest assured, any desire to get control of the out-of-control defense budget will plunge far below its already low level. Chalk up another victory in the Military – Industrial – Congressional Complex’s (MICC’s) war on the Constitution, the American taxpayer, and programs like Social Security and Medicare, which are hallmarks of civilized society.

To understand why this QDR review panel is gearing up to paint lipstick on the QDR pig, it is first necessary to describe what the QDR did not do.

Today, the Pentagon is now spending more in inflation-adjusted dollars than at any time since the end of WWII to support a military force structure that is much smaller and older than at any time since the end of World War II. But the QDR did not even acknowledge the three mutually reinforcing problems that are now combining to produce a catastrophic meltdown of the Pentagon’s budget plans, let alone the cynical modes of conduct that virtually guarantee even more force structure reductions, even if defense budgets will continue to increase:

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