Month: April 2012

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Howard Rheingold: Can images stop data overload?

Advanced Cyber/IO
Howard Rheingold

Can images stop data overload?

I use mindmaps with my students so they can literally see the information they read in the texts in a visual, connected, lateral form. “In a lab in Sussex a group of people have had their brainwaves scanned while completing a series of tasks, individually and in groups, to see if data visualisation – presenting information visually, in this case a series of mind maps – can help.

The results showed that when tasks were presented visually rather than using traditional text-based software applications, individuals used around 20% less cognitive resources. In other words, their brains were working a lot less hard.

As a result, they performed more efficiently, and could remember more of the information when asked later. Working in groups, they used 10% less mental resources.”

Source Article:  Pretty pictures: Can images stop data overload?

Phi Beta Iota:  “Data Visualizations” is a better term.  Data visualization in context is even more useful.  Images alone are a form of data pornography.  Data visualization in the context of the intelligence process — requirements analytics, collection management, source discovery and validation, multi-source fusion, compelling timely presentation, and elicitation of feedback from the supported decision-maker(s) is a whole new ballgame.  We still do not do this because no one from CIA to Google to IBM to etcetera has been serious about analytics.  All the “smart city” stuff is still at the granular level of data and no where near the meta level of intelligence.

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Marcus Aurelius: Leon Panetta Prances Around the Truth–Congress Goes Along with Blatant Misrepresentations

Commerce, Corruption, Cultural Intelligence, Government, Military
Marcus Aurelius

I urge that you reject SECDEF's assertions; also urge that you contact your Congressional delegations and ask them to also reject what SECDEF is saying.

Panetta ties TRICARE fee increases to maintaining key programs, personnel

By Bob Brewin 04/16/2012

At a Pentagon press briefing on Monday, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said congressional tinkering with the $613 billion 2013 Defense Department budget could have unintended consequences and result in a hollow force. Flanked by Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Panetta also defended the long-term Defense strategy unveiled in January, saying it will help the Pentagon to slash its budget by $487 billion over the next 10 years.

In March, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., chairman of the House Budget Committee, told a National Journal forum that senior military commanders were dishonest in presenting Congress with a budget request he doesn't believe they fully support. After Dempsey charged Ryan with calling senior military leaders liars, Ryan backed off and said, “I really misspoke.”

Continue reading “Marcus Aurelius: Leon Panetta Prances Around the Truth–Congress Goes Along with Blatant Misrepresentations”

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Gary North: Do NOT Under-Estimate Bernanke’s Ignorance

03 Economy, Commerce, Corruption, Government, IO Impotency
Gary North

Ben Bernanke's Judy Garland Impersonation

by Gary North

“Somewhere, over the rainbow, way up high.”

Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a speech on April 13 on “Rethinking Finance.” It certainly needs to be rethought at the highest levels. Unfortunately, Dr. Bernanke has not yet begun the process. Thinking, yes. Not rethinking.

He ended his speech with this:

The financial crisis of 2007-09 was difficult to anticipate for two reasons: First, financial panics, being to a significant extent self-fulfilling crises of confidence, are inherently difficult to foresee.

This is wrong on two counts. First, in a free market, there are no self-fulfilling prophecies. That is because of the widespread distribution of knowledge. A self-fulfilling prophecy is said to take place because lots of people expect it to happen. But why would lots of people expect it to happen? Because (1) there is something fundamental taking place and (2) people share the same economic theory.

Then why is there ever a panic? The free market pits buyers against buyers and sellers against sellers. Why wouldn't those with the best information sell the assets over time, as accurate information spreads? Why is there a panic? Why don't prices come down in a more steady, orderly way? If someone issues a prophecy, it is not widely believed at first. It takes time for people to believe.

They believe it because it explains events in terms of a framework. They draw conclusions. They slowly come to the same conclusions. A panic takes place when the vast majority of investors put their money in the wrong investments. Overnight, the investments turn out to be ill-conceived. The economist should ask this: Why did almost everyone make the same bad investments? The normal process of competition precludes such widespread, simultaneous errors.

Bernanke asked this. His answer self-fulfilling prophesies. He did not ask the more fundamental question: How is it that these self-fulfilling negative prophesies work their black magic against the interests of the vast number of market participants?

FIAT MONEY PRODUCES BAD INFORMATION

Continue reading “Gary North: Do NOT Under-Estimate Bernanke's Ignorance”

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NIGHTWATCH: Afghanistan Lost, Syria Holding

Cultural Intelligence, Government, Military

Afghanistan: Comment: On the 16th, US and NATO officials praised the Afghan commandos for leading the counterattack against the small group of anti-government fighters who assaulted Kabul on Sunday. However, some seemed to undermine the significance of the Afghan achievement by minimizing the significance of the assault itself, calling it the last gasp of the anti-government forces. Evidently, the Afghans fought well against a weak force and the sensational set of attacks actually signifies an improving security situation. Hmmm.

Thus, Readers might be confused on the 17th by multiple press services reports that the NATO command plans a large offensive to improve security in Kabul in May.

NightWatch has written that violent instability is centripetal. It moves from the border marches and other peripheries to the center of power, the capital. Victory for the anti-government forces means seizing and holding the capital. Victory for the government forces means holding a secure center and expanding a secure perimeter outward to the national borders.

A government that cannot maintain a secure center of power, the capital, cannot survive. It does not matter whether it falls to the Taliban or the Haqqanis. It will fall. Thus, attacks in the capital are always signs of weakness at the center. The only question is how weak.

For example, the Syrian government understands this phenomenology, which is why there have been less than a handful of attacks in Damascus during a year of violent instability. Damascus has experienced no 18-hour battles. The occasional attacks do not signify significant weakness. The Syrian center is holding.

Syria is not Afghanistan and the two fights are quite different, but the importance of security at the center is the same. This week's outbreak of fighting in Kabul means one thing: Kabul is not secure even with NATO forces. If the center is not secure, nowhere else matters.

NIGHTWATCH KGS Home

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Chuck Spinney: Hardware Über Alles in the Spendagon — Paneta Pumps Corporate Profits While Veterans Commit Suicide + Meta-RECAP

07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, 11 Society, Corruption, DoD, Government, Military, Officers Call
Chuck Spinney

Hardware Über Alles in the Spendagon

(Note to Readers, the following essay is a revised version of one that appeared in Time Magazine's Battleland blog found at this link.)

For a good example of the Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex’s (MICC’s) value system — which is hardware before ideas and people — read this New York Times column by Nicholas Kristof.

Note his opening paragraph:

Here’s a window into a tragedy within the American military: For every soldier killed on the battlefield this year, about 25 veterans are dying by their own hands.

And here is Kristof’s penultimate paragraph:

We refurbish tanks after time in combat, but don’t much help men and women exorcise the demons of war. Presidents commit troops to distant battlefields, but don’t commit enough dollars to veterans’ services afterward. We enlist soldiers to protect us, but when they come home we don’t protect them.

In between, Kristof supports these statements with horrific detail.

Continue reading “Chuck Spinney: Hardware Über Alles in the Spendagon — Paneta Pumps Corporate Profits While Veterans Commit Suicide + Meta-RECAP”

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Patrick Meier: The Digital Operations Center of the American Red Cross

IO Impotency
Patrick Meier

The Digital Operations Center at the American Red Cross is an important and exciting development. I recently sat down with Wendy Harman to learn more about the initiative and to exchange some lessons learned in this new world of digital  humanitarians. One common challenge in emergency response is scaling. The American Red Cross cannot be everywhere at the same time—and that includes being on social media. More than 4,000 tweets reference the Red Cross on an average day, a figure that skyrockets during disasters. And when crises strike, so does Big Data. The Digital Operations Center is one response to this scaling challenge.

Sponsored by Dell, the Center uses customized software produced by Radian 6 to monitor and analyze social media in real-time. The Center itself sits three people who have access to six customized screens that relate relevant information drawn from various social media channels. The first screen below depicts some of key topical areas that the Red Cross monitors, e.g., references to the American Red Cross, Storms in 2012, and Delivery Services.

REDACTED:  Multiple Screen Shots and Related Commentary

Click on Image to Enlarge

As  argued in this previous blog post, the launch of this Digital Operations Center is further evidence that the humanitarian space is ready for innovation and that some technology companies are starting to think about how their solutions might be applied for humanitarian purposes. Indeed, it was Dell that first approached the Red Cross with an expressed interest in contributing to the organization’s efforts in disaster response. The initiative also demonstrates that combining automated natural language processing solutions with a digital volunteer net-work seems to be a winning strategy, at least for now.

After listening to Wendy describe the various tools she and her colleagues use as part of the Operations Center, I began to wonder whether these types of tools will eventually become free and easy enough for one person to be her very own operations center. I suppose only time will tell. Until then, I look forward to following the Center’s progress and hope it inspires other emergency response organizations to adopt similar solutions.

Phi Beta Iota:   This is not real — it is what the beltway bandits can vaporware, or viewgraph engineering.  It appears to be a local initiative that is completely removed from the Geneva operations center that follows 30+ wars at a time.  It is the germ of a good idea that is heavily reliant on non-existent volunteers, and disconnected from all other information outside the social sphere.  It also appears to have overlooked the value of Twitter in identifying specific individuals at specific locations who can be queried via Twitter for an eyes-on answer.

See Also:

2012 PREPRINT FOR COMMENT: The Craft of Intelligence

1989 Webb (US) CATALYST: Computer-Aided Tools for the Analysis of Science & Technology

Open Source Agency: Executive Access Point

THE OPEN SOURCE EVERYTHING MANIFESTO: Transparency, Truth & Trust

World Brain & Global Game 101-104