The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?
In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling power, the result has been bloodshed.
EXTRACT
The preeminent geostrategic challenge of this era is not violent Islamic extremists or a resurgent Russia. It is the impact of China’s ascendance.
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ROBERT STEELE: This essay is epic — a joy to read, and to affirm that we still have intelligence with integrity in some corners of the Empire. The measured tone, biting humor (“dare we wish that China were more like us?”) and foundation on facts — evidence-based reasoning, is more often than not lacking across government, commercial, academic, and media. Kudos to The Atlantic for this historic piece.
Now here is what the author does not say: as long as the US Government is dominated by a two-party system that chooses to treat Members at foot-soldiers whose votes can be sold in bloc; and as long as the FBI is not allowed to isolate financial, religious, and ideological traitors — such as those who took us into Iraq on the basis of 935 lies and those who today are destabilizing the Ukraine and Syria — then war is more likely than not and those who favor “adjustment” will be marginalized if not murdered.
All things being equal, the nation with the least intelligence and least integrity will start a war instead of adjusting into a new balance of power. We're there.
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