13 American Gray Swans
List Only:
1) EMP – Solar.
2) EMP – Nuclear.
3) EMP – Tesla Technology.
4) Electric Grid Attack
5) Cyber Attack
6) WW III.
7) Credit Collapse.
8) Pandemic.
9) El Hierro.
10) New Madrid Earthquake.
11) Satellite Shut Down.
12) Solar Minimum.
13) Civil War.
DOC (7 Pages): 13 Gray Swans – 2019
SPECIAL (PDF): When Trucks Stop America Stops
Phi Beta Iota: The list above, and the full document both online below and in downloadable form above, center on the fact that “big agriculture” is based both west of the Mississippi and outside the USA (Mexico and beyond) and that any number of factors could collapse the US food delivery system within days. There are generally three forms of failure: electronic systems, transport systems (there are only five major railroad bridges across the Mississippi), and contamination failure. The author does not include railway bridges and radiological contamination so that would bring the total to fifteen. He emphasizes the vulnerability of a “Just in Time” food system that has millions of points of failure and no localized resilience to external failure. This is why President Donald Trump needs a domestic grand strategy rooted in the work of Elinor Ostrom and Nassim Nicholas Taleb:
- Review: Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action
- Review: Skin in the Game – Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
- Review: ANTIFRAGILE – Things That Gain From Disorder
13 American Gray Swans
J. C. Cole
Those that are well read in business will know the excellent work of Nassim Taleb and his theory of a Black Swan. This theory explains the disproportionate role high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology occur. Basically, a Black Swan is an “Unpredictable event occurring that is devastating”.
So, what do we call a “Predictable event occurring that is devastating”? A Gray Swan.
As defined by Investopedia: A Gray Swan is an event that can be anticipated to a certain degree but is considered unlikely to occur and may have a sizable impact on the valuation of a security or the health of the overall market if it does occur.
If we consider America, we can identify at least 13 Gray Swans “potentially” flying our way. And stunningly, the experts say that one or more are guaranteed to land — we simply do not know which one and when. And when one lands, the national security of the United States is compromised.
These Gray Swans all have one thing in common. When they occur, they shut down the “Just In Time” or JIT delivery system in America. This is not rocket science, but simple cause and effect. And it is simple to prove.
First, understand the position America is now in. Long gone are the days when our food was produced by local farms just a few miles away and regional population centers had a supporting critical mass of food produced within a 30-mile radius. Today America has a very sophisticated delivery system that delivers food “coast to coast” in only a few days. The average food store only has a few days of food on hand at any one time. Food stores are replenished daily by this sophisticated JIT delivery system. The average family only has a week or two of food stored. If the JIT delivery system stops, then food stops being delivered, and America will go hungry.
In the 1950s, America had over 20 million farms and 30% of Americans lived on farms, creating a very diversified and strong national food grid. Today, with 150 million more people, we have less than 2 million farms and approximately 1% of Americans on farms, creating a very fragile national food grid.
Most Americans are not aware that the national food grid is in this very dangerous situation. Especially vulnerable is the area between Boston to Washington, DC. Fifty percent of our food is imported into America. Of the other 50% that we produce inside the country, 80% of that is grown by large farms in the mid-west and 20% of that is grown in California. All of it is transported by a JIT delivery system. The average unit of food in America travels 1,500 miles. States east of the Mississippi River do not produce enough food to sustain their populations.
The bottom line is basically that if anything shuts down the JIT delivery system in America for more than a week, it is likely that our inner cities will start to riot and burn. This is not fear mongering, but rather “history”. If shipping is shut down for an estimated 3 weeks, then the majority of the country runs out of food, and probably a civil war would erupt. There are 320 million people with more than 320 million guns and if they have no food, that is a recipe for disaster. America’s JIT delivery system is America’s “Achilles Heel”.
A quick investigation of America reveals that we have no food security (as defined by the World Health Organization). This is very simple to prove. (By the way – for those that don’t believe it could happen – the entire Soviet shipping system collapsed for an entire continent when the Soviet Union (300 million people) collapsed in less than 1 week.)
Most Americans mistake food production volume with food security. Obviously, they are not the same. In America, we have a substantial food production volume, but we do not have food security. Food security is food production volume plus food accessibility. As stated earlier, our sophisticated JIT delivery system is quite vulnerable and so our food accessibility can end in an instant. Think of it as a well-tuned Swiss watch. Just one hammer and it stops. If it stops, there is no food accessibility.
A great article that explains our vulnerability is “When the Trucks Stop, America Stops” by the American Trucking Association. https://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/What%20We%20Do/Image%20and%20Outreach%20Programs/When%20Trucks%20Stop%20America%20Stops.pdf
We may get a taste of this as a trucking strike is planned for April 12, 2019.
But the real big question is: What could shut down the JIT Delivery system for longer than 3 weeks?
This is just a brief discussion on the 13 Gray Swans. For more information on each, I recommend you research them yourself. Of course, there will always be those that just do not get it. You can lead a donkey to water, but cannot make it drink! You can even lead an elephant to water, but you cannot make it drink either. By coincidence, those are the mascots of our political parties. In other words, you can lead all of Washington to the well of wisdom and common sense, but you cannot make them take action.
13 American Gray Swans
1) EMP – Solar. The Sun can fire off a CME-EMP that totally destroys America’s electric grid. This would be called a Carrington Event, which has happened before, is well documented, and is overdue to happen again according to experts. The American electric grid is not hardened for protection. Last I checked, our military industrial complex cannot control the Sun, so one of these EMP events is coming.
2) EMP – Nuclear. Any rogue state with a nuclear weapon that can be detonated in the upper atmosphere over our country will totally destroy America’s electric grid. Watch the TV series Jericho or Revolution or read One Second After by Forstchen to get the picture.
3) EMP – Tesla Technology. The US, Russia, and China all have created Tesla technology weapons that very simply can turn off the electricity in a region, city, building, or ship. Turn off NYC’s financial district and our financial markets collapse, along with the payment system. Research the USS Donald Cook 2013 Black Sea turn-off for some proof.
4) Electric Grid Attack – Physically, America’s electric grid can easily be taken down. Simply coordinate the shooting of the transformer oil cooling tanks in 9 key substations and the entire US electric grid goes down. And this can be done by less than 30 people. Read Ted Koppel’s book Lights Out. Research Metcalf Substation attack for some more proof.
5) Cyber Attack. A strong cyber attack will take down the Internet, financial systems, and electric grid. Again, Koppel’s book points out the Russians and Chinese already have sleeper viruses in our system, not to mention that one snot-nosed 16-year-old computer genius can accidentally create and let a virus loose, causing this. Research Stuxnet, Yemen electric grid attack, and Russia turning off Ukraine’s electricity for proof.
6) WW III. We see major powers in the world preparing for war. There is now no need for nuclear annihilation to destroy the Earth and our species. Just turn off the enemy’s electricity. America’s problem is that we are the most dependent country in the world on electricity and therefore the most vulnerable. A strategic hit whether electronically, physically, or by tsunami on NYC shuts down our financial system. I wonder what odds Las Vegas is placing, will it be Venezuela, Eastern Europe between NATO and Russia, China and the US over the South China Sea, or those pesky Jews and Arabs in the Middle East to start the big one? It looks like India and Pakistan just threw in their nomination as well, and let us not rule out the historic underdog catalyst of world conflict — the Balkans.
7) Credit Collapse. The entire American commercial system runs on credit. Much of shipping and supply goes on payment terms of 30, 60, or 90 days which is credit. Big items require a Letter of Credit. Amazon.com and most retailers’ payments are by your credit card, not to mention bank lending, mortgages, and finance are also credit. Most farmers have to finance their seed planting and/or livestock by credit, and farm credit is at an all time high. A credit collapse can be combined with, or triggered by, a bank collapse, a currency collapse, a stock market collapse, a bond market collapse, etc. See any evidence of those swans flying in? And you wonder why some groups are trying to get rid of “cash”?
8) Pandemic. We all know a pandemic can be caused by Mother Nature or released deliberately or accidentally by a military. Nobody is going to deliver food to a contaminated region. And no deliveries are going to be accepted from a contaminated region. NYC being a “hub” of the world with JFK, LaGuardia, and Newark Airports will most likely get infected quickly, along with the financial district running our financial system. Nobody is going to go to work if there is a high probability of dying, so expect a shutdown. Watching the movie Contagion with Matt Damon should get the point across.
9) El Hierro. Most Americans are unaware that a dormant volcano is sitting just across the Atlantic Ocean in the Canary Islands. If this volcano cone collapses into the Atlantic, geologists estimate it will send a 100 to 300 foot tidal wave (tsunami) that will hit the entire east coast of America, wiping out coastal cities including NYC, Boston, and Washington. Recently, there has been an increase in volcanic rumbling. And also, a rogue state can set off the volcano and the volcanic cone collapse with a tactical nuke, claiming “plausible deniability”. A short search on the Internet will produce the geologists report and computer animation.
10) New Madrid Earthquake. Again, most Americans are unaware that the New Madrid fault line is the most dangerous in the country and was one of our largest earthquakes in our history. The fault line runs approximately along the Mississippi River. It is estimated that if the New Madrid Fault releases a large earthquake then the majority of bridges and energy pipelines across the Mississippi River will be destroyed. For the people living east of the Mississippi (approximately 170 million Americans), the food is on the other side of the Mississippi with no way to be transported across. Some believe that the military of the world powers have the technology to “trigger” earthquakes as Angels don’t play this HAARP. Geologists say the New Madrid is long overdue and we are seeing an exponential rise in earthquakes, volcanoes, and sinkholes around the globe.
11) Satellite Shut Down. As stated by NASA recently, our satellite GPS system controls our electric grid and payment systems and President Trump wants a space fleet to protect our satellites. A solar EMP could wipe out our satellites, basically shutting down our country. A space war could also do that, but our government would have told us the truth of what is happening up there, wouldn’t they?
12) Solar Minimum. There is evidence that the Sun is entering into a solar minimum. If accurate, expect a mini ice age, an increase in volcanism, increase in extreme weather, increase in cosmic gamma rays, and a collapse of world food production. What a coincidence, this is what we are seeing. Read Dark Winter by John Casey for more information.
13) Civil War. It is clear that there are groups trying to start a civil war in America. Divided we fall, united we stand. If a civil war happens, expect shipping to stop, which will cause more fighting. There will be no delivery across 3,000 miles of a war zone. Further, if the US Federal Government collapses, so does the US dollar and our payment system, and we will have nothing with which to pay for food, especially if it is, on average, 1,500 miles away. Also our farms collapse as they can no longer receive supplies needed for production.
Here is just one example of how we are positioned for a civil war. 15% of Americans are on Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) cards (modern day food stamps). That represents about 45 million people, the majority of whom are in our inner cities. They are not famed for being the most resourceful nor tolerant people in the country. It is estimated that if the EBT system shuts down for more than 1 week our inner cities would riot and burn. An example of this happened in October 2013 when the EBT system went down in 17 states for only 3 days. Some believe it was a beta test. It only takes 5% of a population to create massive social unrest, and that is only a computer glitch away. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/walmart-stuck-food-stamp-shopping-spree/story?id=20563982
So, determining which cause and effect occurs will depend on which Gray Swan lands, and there may be more, but I think these 13 get the point across. I recommend reviewing each of them and assigning your own “probability” to each on whether they will happen. I think you will quickly see that there is an extremely high probability that at least one Gray Swan will happen – i.e., one is virtually guaranteed to happen during our lifetime. Some of these are guaranteed to happen, we simply do not know when.
If the payment system stops, then obviously there will be no payment made to the food producers and they will not send food (which, on average, is 1,500 miles away). You are not going to drive to Iowa for your breakfast grains, then California for your lunch salad, then Montana for your steak dinner, all on one tank of gas, because there will be no refills. Somehow, I do not think those wise “Good Old Boy” ranchers in Wyoming will send a $100 k container of beef to those famously honest NY City retailers just on a good faith IOU.
If the electric grid shuts down, then the entire country stops. No payments, no telecommunications, no refrigeration, no city water or sewers, no food delivery or production, and no Starbucks. This would instantly paralyze the country and the majority of our “snow flakes” would lock themselves in the nearest safe room. Congress has known the grid is not hardened and vulnerable for at least 30 years, and it has done nothing about it. Why would Congress not protect their own fiefdom? This clearly indicates they are compromised. Possibly someone has photos of too much Pizza and Hot Dog consumption!
For our enemies it is quite simple to take down the United States. No need for a nuclear holocaust or massive military confrontation. While some methods are “rocket science”, such as sending a nuke into the upper atmosphere to cause an EMP, but shooting holes in the transformer cooling oil tanks is an old-school option that does not require much skill.
The truth is America is simply positioned for collapse and a famine. Whether it is done deliberately or by accident is moot at this point. It can be triggered by our enemies, by Mother Nature, or just by accident. Keep in mind that historically, the #1 reason for revolution in the world is famine. Just ask the Chinese who are buying up our prime farm land.
It is interesting to note that if the JIT delivery system collapses, then the US military just lost its main supply chain. Wow, if the FBI report was correct on Metcalf, then it only takes 27 semi-skilled guys and 9 rifles to take down the US electric grid along with the private sector supply chain for the US Military. What did Napoleon say? An army marches on its stomach! It looks like our guys may march all the way to a WaWa, Circle K, or 7-11 and find it empty. Is anyone at the Pentagon paying attention?
Are we really to believe that we don’t have 27 foreign operatives on US soil when our southern border is a sieve and we have an estimated 10,000 MS-13 members in our cities? What about the 350,000 mainland Chinese students studying in our universities? And what ever happened to the 15,000 Russian Spetnaz special forces that Obama and the rainbow queen Janet Napolitano invited in? Where did they go? Let us not forget the 5 Jumping Israeli Mossad agents arrested filming the destruction of the Twin Towers. By the way, how did the Israelis know what and when to film that morning?
Speaking of NYC, what would happen if the JIT delivery system stopped for 1 week? Ninety percent of the 400 million tons of freight coming per year into New York City (and to 8.62 million people) comes by truck. Imagine what happens when that stops. It gives a new meaning to the film “Escape from New York”. I don’t think Snake Plissken will solve this one!
In summary, America is positioned for a guaranteed collapse that is only a matter of time if the JIT delivery system goes down and we do not create a failsafe. We would have just 3 weeks to solve the problem before sewage hits the proverbial fan. Does anyone really believe that a government that is compromised which can not even build one simple wall would save us? To say that the JIT delivery system won’t fail is not only naive, but suicidal. We must create a failsafe.
Surprisingly enough, there is a way to thwart and protect against all of these Gray Swan cause and effects. But that would take Americans working together. It would mean that we would have to change our psychology on investment, putting the country first instead of ROI. It is quite obvious that somebody is trying desperately to keep us divided so this does not happen.
Also, it would take our billionaires to actually work together in synergy. In my opinion, they are the catalyst needed to take action to change our investment paradigm because they are the only group that have the financial strength to influence the change. That would be a daunting task as most of the billionaires are the “untouchables” and protected by a veil of unapproachability. Although it would behoove them to do so, because if any of those Gray Swans land, then the billionaires have the farthest to fall, and somehow, I don’t think their Gulfstream G550’s will not save them (but that is another article subject).
For those that don’t believe in the 13 Gray Swans, possibly the following 2 articles may sway your opinion and add weight to our concern:
1) Warren Buffets recent Berkshire Hathaway newsletter – https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-warns-big-one-hurricane-earthquake-security-2019-2
2) A NASA-funded study from 2014 – “Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY): Modeling Inequality and Use of Resources in the Collapse or Sustainability of Societies”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists
Churchill said: “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing — after they have tried everything else”. Let us not only hope he is right, let us take action to prove he is right. We are out of other options, the time to do the right thing is now.
The solutions are all there, but it takes a critical mass of American synergy to implement them, and that starts with our Billionaires. We have done it before, the question is will we wake up and do it again. Time is short! If a Gray Swan lands first, our goose is cooked!
J.C. Cole
Post script
During just the few weeks it took to have this article reviewed and off my desk the evidence of numerous Gray Swans appeared.
Gray Swan #1 – 3 separate CMEs fired off from the Sun directed towards Earth. Fortunately they where not as strong as the overdue Carrington Event or you would not be reading this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XRGqjIG9wE&t=187s
Gray Swan #3 and/or #5 – Venezuela lost electricity for days. https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/venezuela-in-complete-societal-collapse-widespread-looting-armed-people-attacking-neighbors-to-get-food-we-re-going-to-start-eating-each-other
Gray Swan #1, #2 and/or #3 – President Trump sign Executive Order for EMPs. Do you think possibly they know something we do not? Don’t worry, it will only take 10 years to harden the grid.
Grey Swan #6 – WW III starting
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-04/brink-war-pakistan-high-alert-indian-military-ready-strike
https://norwaytoday.info/news/giant-b-52-bomber-norway-first/
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_164725.htm
https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-sends-2-nuclear-capable-bombers-to-venezuela
Gray Swan #7 – a report came out on our Consumer Debt Apocalypse – http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/12-statistics-that-prove-that-the-u-s-is-facing-a-consumer-debt-apocalypse
https://summit.news/2019/04/06/billionaire-hedge-fund-manager-says-theres-about-to-be-an-uprising-in-america/
Gray Swan #8 – a report of an Ebola outbreak in Africa – 700 dead
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-47816130
Gray Swan #10 – Shaking at the New Madrid – https://beforeitsnews.com/v3/earthquakes/2019/2691074.html
Gray Swan #12 – Weather changes and collapse of world food production https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-agriculture/u-s-farmers-face-devastation-following-midwest-floods-idUSKCN1R12J0
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-03-21-flooding-billion-dollar-disasters
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/society-will-collapse-by-2040-due-to-catastrophic-food-shortages-says-study-10336406.html
https://www.thetrumpet.com/18880-midwest-floods-worst-agricultural-disaster-in-modern-us-history
It is just a matter of time before a Gray Swan lands in America. There is only one solution. Wake up and invest in your own country in EMP proof sustainable farming.
With food, and healthy food at that, we can solve virtually all problems – without it we can solve none.
