Exclusive: America has ‘reached the point of no return,’ Reagan budget director warns

10 Security, 11 Society, Budgets & Funding, Cultural Intelligence, Military, Peace Intelligence, Strategy
David Stockman

The Obama administration's $78 billion cut to US defense spending is a mere “pin-prick” to a behemoth military-industrial complex that must drastically shrink for the good of the republic, a former Reagan administration budget director recently told Raw Story.

. . . . . . .

The ‘Ponzi scheme' of ‘artificial prosperity'

Stockman, who described himself as a libertarian during a recent interview with Reason.tv, told Raw Story that the economy got into this mess because of the public and private sectors' addiction to “guns and butter Keynesianism,” an economic policy that amounts to a Ponzi scheme that has ballooned since 1990.

“If we see what's going on carefully, we've reached the final unmasking of the Keynesian illusion, that Keynesianism is really nothing but borrowing, stealing from the future to induce consumption today,” he said. “There are no multipliers. Every one of these programs we've had from ‘cash for clunkers' to housing purchase credits have disappeared as soon as they expired and simple shifted activities in time by a few months.”

Stockman explained that before 1980, it took about $1.50 of new borrowing — public or private — to generate $1 of GDP growth. By the mid-1990s, it was $2.50 or $3 of borrowing for a $1 of GDP growth. By 2007, before the big collapse and meltdown finally came, $7 of public and private debt was added to the national balance sheet in order to get $1 of GDP growth.

“When you get to the point of $7 of borrowing to get $1 of income, you're obviously on an unsustainable path and pretty close to hitting the wall, which more or less we have,” he said.

Read full Raw Story….

Phi Beta Iota: Drawing down the military-industrial complex will immediately produce two highly undesireable masses of unrest: pissed off unemployed veterans who own a gun and know how to use it; and pissed off pasty-faced short fat bald white guys with no marketable skills who either own a gun or know where to buy one.  We agree that the military budget needs to be cut by $200 billion or more–however, it must be done strategically, with clear-cut plan for both assuring every veteran of a job, with priority to amputees, and for redirecting our energies into homeland development before we spent another dollar on foreign development.  We've blown it for nearly three-quarters of a century.  This is now about strategic design–do it, or lose what's left of the Republic.

Journal: Defense Theatrics & One-Two Star Flag Agonizing?

02 China, 10 Security, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, History, Military, Misinformation & Propaganda, Officers Call, Peace Intelligence, Policy, Strategy, Threats
Richard Wright

Worth a look….coincides with what Chuck Spinney has been saying.

Defense Budget Debate:

SAME OLD GAME: JUST NEW PLAYERS

January 13, 2011 Harry C. Blaney III

Rethinking National Security

(Center for International Policy)

Among the first security issues of the year is the release of information about China’s military capabilities and the recent release of the U.S. defense budget request, which is not coincidental . Each year, when key decisions are made about the coming annual DOD budget, we see media reports about China’s new potential and physical military ambitions and weapons programs. They arise from statements by U.S. military commanders, anonymous Pentagon sources and conservative think tank pundits. The intent is to create a “boogeyman,” to depict the Chinese as nine feet tall and America as a “Lilliputian.”

I remember this same bizarre scenario took place during the Cold War. At that time, I had a bit of responsibility from time to time looking at these issues and especially the bureaucratic warfare between the military establishment and the intelligence community analysts who had to provide assessments about how far the Soviets were ahead of America and who in reality were behind us. The interagency fights were often fierce with billions of dollars at stake along with  real command over new resources, programs and especially planes and ships – whether needed or not.  There was the prospect of a nice rich job in the defense industry if your program won out.

Today, the kabuki is not much different but the reality of today’s security challenges is dramatically different in substantive ways.

Read rest of article….

Continue reading “Journal: Defense Theatrics & One-Two Star Flag Agonizing?”

Reference: Cost of US Force Projection to Middle East

10 Security, Articles & Chapters, Budgets & Funding, Military, Peace Intelligence
PDF 10 Pages Online

This reference strives to demonstrate that the “true cost of oil” to the USA between 1976 and 2007 should include the cost of the aircraft carriers and related forces to the Middle East.  The author has two major flaws in his argument, stating that each forward-deployed carrier requires eight others (vice two more, one down, one training up), and that Army and Air Force units are virtually never deployed without supporting carriers.  We draw three take-aways from this:

1.  The US Government is going to have to start doing strategic holistic “true cost” analysis or it will be bombarded with this kind of analysis in the future that is both flawed and constructive–we do need to know the “true cost” of everything and the military costs borne by the taxpayer are a part of that.

2.  Academics such as this author are well-intentioned but deprived of robust access to military analysts and budget specialists.  The war colleges could play a very constructive role in bringing various parties together, both to improve government development of “true cost” models, and to improve academic understanding of how military power projection is structured.

3.  The time has come for the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to get back into the Management side, and particularly to begin evaluating Return on Investment (RoI) across the board.  This should lead to a substantial increase in the budget for diplomacy & development, while requiring some meaningful realignments within both the military and the secret intelligence worlds.

Journal: Microcosm of US Failure in Afghan Development

01 Poverty, 02 Diplomacy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, 11 Society, Advanced Cyber/IO, Budgets & Funding, Cultural Intelligence, Gift Intelligence, Government, Methods & Process, Non-Governmental, Peace Intelligence
DefDog Recommends...

More wasted money…..

Program to modernize Afghan justice system yields little so far

MORE FROM MCCLATCHY

McClatchy's November investigation of contracting in Afghanistan

Military bans two U.S. firms from Afghan contracting

Contractor Louis Berger settles in Afghan overbilling probe

Follow Afghanistan developments at McClatchy's Checkpoint Kabul

See Also:

Reference: Quadrennial Diplomacy & Development Review

Graphic: Whole of Government Intelligence

Journal: Whole of Government Competence & Contractors

Review: Losing the Golden Hour–An Insider’s View of Iraq’s Reconstruction

Worth a Look: The Golden Hour and Rebalancing the Instruments of National Power

Journal: Taliban Doubles US Casualties in Two Years…

04 Inter-State Conflict, 05 Civil War, 07 Other Atrocities, 08 Wild Cards, 10 Security, Cultural Intelligence, Military, Peace Intelligence
Chuck Spinney Sounds Off....

January 12, 2011

Why Mine Warfare is Good for Protracted War

Surging Tit for Tat in Afghanistan

By FRANKLIN C. SPINNEY, Counterpunch

President Obama's ballyhooed surge of US forces in Afghanistan added 17,000 troops in early 2009 plus an additional 30,000 by 2010, in effect doubling the number of troops in Afghanistan (not to mention the concomitant surge in the camp-follower contractor force). The Taliban may not have doubled its troop strength, but as Tom Vanden Brook reports in the 10 January issue of USA Today, the insurgents have doubled the the total number of casualties inflicted by mines in just the last two years of the nine year war. [See graphic]

Read rest of article….

Continue reading “Journal: Taliban Doubles US Casualties in Two Years…”

NIGHTWATCH Extract: US C/JCS & China Arms Race

02 China, 03 Economy, 04 Inter-State Conflict, 07 Other Atrocities, 10 Security, 11 Society, Budgets & Funding, Commerce, Cultural Intelligence, History, Intelligence (government), Military, Peace Intelligence, Power Behind-the-Scenes/Special Interests, Secrecy & Politics of Secrecy, Strategy, Waste (materials, food, etc)

China- US: CJCS Admiral Mullen said today that China's high-tech military capabilities, including the radar-evading stealth J-20 fighter, focus on America.

China has every right to develop military capabilities, Mullen said, adding that he cannot understand why many appear to target the United States despite North Korea's being an evolving threat to the region and to the United States. If Pyongyang obtains long-range nuclear missile capabilities, its provocations may become more catastrophic, Mullen stated, adding that China must pressure North Korean leadership to cease development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and expansion of nuclear weapons capability.

Comment: It is difficult to accept at face value that Admiral Mullen does not understand the Chinese obsession with the threat from the United States.

Taking the statement at face value – and not as an act of political manipulation – it implies that the J2 and J5 staffs have failed to brief him about the origins of Chinese national defense strategy since the death of Deng Xiao Ping. If the Chairman's statement is genuine and not posturing, it is astonishing.

Continue reading “NIGHTWATCH Extract: US C/JCS & China Arms Race”

UK Professors Want United Nations to Prep for Aliens

Cultural Intelligence, Peace Intelligence
Dr Martin Dominik of the University of St Andrews

Earth must prepare for close encounter with aliens, say scientists

UN should co-ordinate plans for dealing with extraterrestrials – and we can't guarantee that aliens will be friendly

Alok Jha, Alien Correspondent

Guardian UK, Monday 10 January 2011

Aliens visiting Earth will be just like humans, scientist claims
First contact: The man who'll welcome aliens
Aliens can't hear us, says astronomer

Click on Image to Enlarge

See Also:

Area 51: Collecting Memories after 47 years of Secrecy

Event: October 24-26, 2009 Rio Rico, Arizona – Disclosure Project

Review: Close Encounters of the Fourth Kind

Review: Disclosure–Military and Government Witnesses Reveal the Greatest Secrets in Modern History

Review: Hidden Truth–Forbidden Knowledge

Worth a Look (DVD): The Day Before Disclosure

Worth a Look: UFO’s Known & Obscured